18Z shows

[Tip]

An incredibible storm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

[krysof]

It shows that heavy moisture since saturday night and gfs shows a secondary storm developing sunday evening that will spread snow overnight monday. Why is the gfs doing this? My hopes will be crushed so badly next model run or so. I know the storm won't hit here or come. What the gfs is showing is a 96 storm repeat, blizzard conditions. NJ won't get this. Trust me, this will probably miss just like the rest of them have. Don't get excited.

[wxguy25]

An incredibible storm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

IF the 18z GFS were to be correct we would be talking about 20-30" of snow from central PA through NW jersey where A) ratios are high given the arctic air in place (Ill call it a base 10:1 or 12:1 ratio at the beginning and possibly ending up at 17:1 or better as the SLP blows up and brings the arctic air in on the backside and B) the 850mb low track is JUST to the South/east of the region.

it appears now that a phasing w/ the STJ s/w kicking out of the SW WILL take place (the 12z GFS had it, as well as the 0z and 12z ECMWF) allowing the system to have a connection w/ GOM moisture.

The Deformation zone follows the track of the 700mb low which carries the best omega across MD, NW WV, NW VA, into PA and Then NJ.

the 12z ECMWF was further north w/ a 993mb low in OH Jumping to the NJ coast then bombing out to <980mb off the New England coast. IF this is the case we would have to cut back the snowfall totals CONSIDERABLY for the DCA-PHL corridor as the track of the 850hPa low would no longer be favorable for heavy snow -- in addition to the usual problems w/ mixing. However as w/ the GFS once into C PA, C NJ, and NYC into New England things look like they SHOULD be cold enough for mainly all snow. and equally heavy amounts would follow; only adjustment is they would fall 50-100 miles north of where the GFS has the heavy snow.

the ECMWF is the BEST model historically for east coast winter storms; and I would also pay close attention to the UKMET since it handles phasing situations such as this will be better than the GFS.

[wxguy25]

It shows that heavy moisture since saturday night and gfs shows a secondary storm developing sunday evening that will spread snow overnight monday. Why is the gfs doing this? My hopes will be crushed so badly next model run or so. I know the storm won't hit here or come. What the gfs is showing is a 96 storm repeat, blizzard conditions. NJ won't get this. Trust me, this will probably miss just like the rest of them have. Don't get excited.

Well the trend continues to be further north / stronger w/ each run. BUT that trend will stop once the models get a handle on the 50-50 low / block development. ONCE that happens you will see a consensus develop. thusly before committing to ANY kind of forecast i would wait until I understand how the 50-50 low will impact the phasing, timing, and track of the h5 s/w

And w/ the 50-50 low in place the northward trend WRT the h5 s/w can only continue for so long.

I will be blunt w/ you though. the ECMWF 12z run is NOT good for DCA-PHL due to the SLP track, and 850mb low transference. NYC-BDL-BOS this is a MAJOR...MAJOR hit.

the 850mb low track and where it jumps to the coast will be one of the CRITICAL determinant factors in how much snow falls where in the I-95 corridor.

[krysof]

once the gfs is in the 84 hour range, than its something to carefully watch!

[wxguy25]

once the gfs is in the 84 hour range, than its something to carefully watch!

No. the point is try not to follow the GFS at all. In the Short range i like to look for an ECMWF/NAM consensus (Within 84 hrs) w/ input from the SREF / MM5 /RGEM, WRF...etc.. (<60hrs)

[krysof]

What are some of the other models showing? Where can I find them?

[Chris the Weather Man]

0z Euro showed a Huge Storm, 12z, trended Northward to New England.... Either way, Still it looks good for a MECS..... HECS? well, I would wait and see...

[krysof]

What is a HECS? I know what MECS or SECS is but not HECS.

[wxguy25]

0z Euro showed a Huge Storm, 12z, trended Northward to New England.... Either way, Still it looks good for a MECS..... HECS? well, I would wait and see...

the 12z EURO is NOT bad for Interior PA, NJ, NYC and SNE. its PHL-BWI-DCA corridor that will see limited totals due to mixing.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, Which do you believe would be correct the 12z or 0z?

[krysof]

What is a HECS please?

[JenyEliza]

What is a HECS please?

Historic East Coast Storm

[wxguy25]

Yes, Which do you believe would be correct the 12z or 0z?

I'm not taking a preference, I'm more concerned about the TREND which for now is further north / stronger. ONCE the models get a handle on the 50-50 we'll see a consensus develop. I don't expect given he 50-50 low / blocking that we'll see much more of a northward trend in the coming runs. perhaps we'll see some waffling north / south the next few runs until the consensus begins to develop.

the SLP can only go so far until it runs into the block and has to go around it.

[krysof]

wow! If everything is just right, we are talking about 1-2 feet or more snowfall over a widespread area. Why couldn't it be Friday evening and everything were to stay as predicted.

[BL03]

GFS: JAN 18 runs for SUN JAN 23 12z.........



From 00z to 18z a shift north is made......Bigger, more phased, GOM juice!...... It IS the GFS but man this is becoming some storm on the models........ Bring it!

[wxguy25]

GFS: JAN 18 runs for SUN JAN 23 12z.........

[img]http://img132.exs.cx/img132/220/jan18gfsrunsforsun2312z3qw.gif[img]

From 00z to 18z a shift north is made......Bigger, more phased, GOM juice!...... It IS the GFS but man this is becoming some storm on the models........ Bring it!

That was the key here. IF the PJ s/w phased w/ the STJ energy it would link up w/ GOM moisture creating a wetter solution.

[BL03]

BTW..........I think 18z GFS migth be too far north OR that the north trend will end soon .............1) because of the 50/50 low (blocking in Can) 2) because a huge 1036mb high is coming right down folks from Hudson Bay......

The 18z does push it south more (ESE) when reforming primary but still a little too far north IMO........ but its still ok for me! lol Woo- ----

[wxguy25]

BTW..........I think 18z GFS migth be too far north OR that the north trend will end soon .............1) because of the 50/50 low (blocking in Can) 2) because a huge 1036mb high is coming right down folks from Hudson Bay......

The 18z does push it south more (ESE) when reforming primary but still a little too far north IMO........ but its still ok for me! lol Woo- ----

Also my point from the above posts.

[krysof]

I hope it doesn't move any more north, let it just intensify more, heavier snows. Bring it!