Possible Weekend Snowstorm: Some Quick Thoughts

[krysof]

What do you mean by historic?

[wxguy25]

question, you say 6+ for philly unless its gets to the extreme of the 12z euro? If the 12z euro were to verify what would that mean?

It would mean that the h85 low would probably be far enough north that a shal;low warm layer can penetrate the mid levels and cause precip to change to ZRA or IP until the transfer takes place, SLP bombs out and drags cold air in behind it.

Remember low pressure systems draw air inward toward them so once this thing starts bombing the warm tounge will get pinched off and the cold air will come rushing back in. it would be a Snow-mix-snow sitiuation for PHL

The PHL NW burbs up into Bucks, montgomery counties, the lehigh valley, Central NJ and Poconos would PROBABLY remain all snow and see the heaviest accumulations.

[Chris the Weather Man]

question, you say 6+ for philly unless its gets to the extreme of the 12z euro? If the 12z euro were to verify what would that mean?

It would mean that the h85 low would probably be far enough north that a shal;low warm layer can penetrate the mid levels and cause precip to change to ZRA or IP until the transfer takes place, SLP bombs out and drags cold air in behind it.

Remember low pressure systems draw air inward toward them so once this thing starts bombing the warm tounge will get pinched off and the cold air will come rushing back in. it would be a Snow-mix-snow sitiuation for PHL

The PHL NW burbs up into Bucks, montgomery counties, the lehigh valley, Central NJ and Poconos would PROBABLY remain all snow and see the heaviest accumulations.

Good Analysis...

[stormman]

but I would think even if that were to happen, we could still see 6+ here. I mean the euro show over an inch of liquid??

[wxguy25]

but I would think even if that were to happen, we could still see 6+ here. I mean the euro show over an inch of liquid??

DCA would see the least of the Big cities and PHL the most for the areas of the I-95 corridor that change over.

I don't want to guess on SPECIFIC accumulations but PHL would still be game for ~6" But the area just NW that I mentioned in the last post (where the warm layer historically has a harder time getting into) would be 12"+ easily assuming QPFs are sufficient and I see no reason why the would not be.

Lets try NOT to explore these specifics anymore until tomorrow.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Agree...... This might get out of hand with the totals.. Wait untill Tomorrow to Friday..

[krysof]

This may be a suprise blizzard with crippling snowfall.

[wxguy25]

Agree...... This might get out of hand with the totals.. Wait untill Tomorrow to Friday..

I WILL be making a first call on the Upper Midwest later tonight though. Sometime in the next two-four hours--- for the first part of the event. Confidence on whats going to happen up there is pretty high from my perspective so I'm going to run w/ it. THIS first call will lay down the idea for THU AFTN - SAT morning in that region. Then I'll just make modifications to this tomorrow night and early THU morning.

For the EUS its way too early to even discuss totals.

[adelphi_sky]

Tell you the truth, I'd be happy with just enough snow to cover the ground. I like to watch it fall. This winter has been so boring. And those temps in the high 60s a while back added salt to the wound. Just give me something I can look at. Sheesh. lol

[donsutherland1]

Wxguy25,

I agree with regard to Richmond and didn't include it in the mix. I'm looking forward to the storm and agree that DCA and PHL should do ok. Of course, perhaps the ECMWF wasn't overdone. Time will tell on that.

[JenyEliza]

Tell you the truth, I'd be happy with just enough snow to cover the ground. I like to watch it fall. This winter has been so boring. And those temps in the high 60s a while back added salt to the wound. Just give me something I can look at. Sheesh. lol

Amen. Especially since we're looking at warming up again next week in my area. I'm really hoping this isn't another snowless winter for us. Normally we see at least one good winter weather event. So far, so bad here.

<sigh>

[krysof]

Philly can't get snow, the game this Sunday, a little snow or even moderate snow shouldn't effect the game unless very strong winds were to make things into blizzard conditions. I want that game.

[JenyEliza]

Look....you're getting snow, AND you've already had a taste of snow this year. We've seen all of 8 snowflakes this winter (yes, I counted), and adding insult to injury we aren't seeing snow this time around either.

WE Atlantans get the game. That's settled.

GO FALCONS!!

[jimvb]

Don, I see what you mean by analogs. Compare with previous storms, or better yet, a collection of such storms. That may tell what is going to happen this time.

For example, take today's storm in Richmond; I shall call it Warlock. They predicted a dusting to 1/2 inch. Instead we got 1 inch or so (my home got 1.1 inches). It did not melt, and roads immediately became treacherous, and I-95 and I-64 became demolition derbies. The primary stoplight streets were OK; just travel slow on them. The authorities were not on the ball this time. There was an analog to this storm. Another storm on 2001 February 21, which I shall call Ogre, put down two inches in the Richmond area. It produced the same pattern. Low temperatures, slippery roads, and big bangups all over the place on the interstates. Apparently the highway people here did not learn from Ogre in dealing with Warlock.

As far as this weekend's storm - to me it looks a lot like the Great Blizzard of 1993 March 12, which I call Bluto. Huge snowfalls in a lot of places, such as New York, and rain in the middle South, and a storm that suddenly explodes. Bluto produced a pressure of 28.47 inches here in Chester - the lowest I have ever seen and lower than many devastating hurricanes. Richmond got snow, then a lot of rain, then snow, for a total of 3 inches of snow. Lynchburg got 20 inches, but Farmville got only 3. It was a sharp dividing line. Will this weekend's storm look like Bluto? By the way, I will call it X-Outer if it x's out my church's Sunday service this weekend.

[donsutherland1]

Another day, more model runs, still no firm solution...

First, my earlier thoughts remain unchanged:

1) I believe somewhere along the East Coast will likely see a 6" or greater snowstorm (with potentially more).

2) Past consistency in the modeling with a focus on the Mid-Atlantic makes me suspect that this area (probably such cities as DCA, BWI, and PHL) will probably have a relatively higher risk at seeing 6" or more. This does not rule out the possibility of a significant snowfall for southern and even central New England.

The 1/21 0z runs of the ETA and GFS contained major differences. The ETA took a far more northern track than the GFS. The GFS was very suppressed. Their divergence points to the continuing uncertainty that surrounds the possible event.

At this time, I'm not accepting any single model solution. Uncertainties still need to be worked out and neither the most recent ETA nor GFS are anything close to flawless. The 0z ECMWF should provide perhaps a firmer basis.

Ultimately, the initial idea still looks reasonable and until the picture becomes clearer, I see little compelling reason to abandon it.

[donsutherland1]

I'll have my first estimates of accumulations later this evening, probably after I've had a chance to see the 0z ETA and perhaps 0z GFS.

I do believe the model guidance is slowly but not necessarily steadily moving toward a reasonable consensus. Overall thoughts, DCA and South will probably see accumulating snow but not a blockbuster. BWI, PHL, NYC still look very good for 6" or more. PVD and BOS remain in the hunt for 6" or more and should not be written off. Upward potential does exist for southern New England and northward, especially along the coast, so I'll have to pay careful attention there.

Certainly for DCA through NYC, this will be the season's biggest snowstorm to date. Analog ideas concerning averages for January should be met or exceeded in DCA and PHL and Boston will easily move past the 15" monthly threshold that was noted by a number of stronger analogs.

Overall, ideas that DCA should come out close to normal in seasonal snowfall, PHL and NYC somewhat above normal, and BOS above normal still look very good. February analogs are also favorable for these cities (information to be included in the next pattern discussion probably on Friday or Saturday).

[azskyman]

The convergence of three distinct areas of low pressure "somewhere" along the eastern seaboard seems a likely scenario.

I never quite like it when media folks on TV "get on the bandwagon" while so many variables yet need to play out.

For snow lovers, though, I'd enjoy seeing the southernmost area of low pressure be the one that drags its feet and draws little brother and sister to its core. That would slow down the northward move, deepen its pressure, and lay a band of heavier (6"+) snows over much more geography.

Thoughts only (as requested)...not challenging the models, but I'd say the heaviest snows, if this scenario develops, will be well inland from the coast and be most harsh from central Jersey and north.

How about pressure down to 29.30" on Long Island along the way!

[donsutherland1]

My initial estimates are as follows:

Babylon: 8"-12"
Baltimore: 4"-8" Possible changeover/mix for a time
Boston: 4"-8"
New York City: 6"-10"
Newark: 6"-10"
Philadelphia: 6"-12" Possible mix for a time
Providence: 4"-8"
Richmond: 1"-3" Changeover for a time
Washington, DC: 3"-6" Possible changeover for a time

Uncertainty still exists and there is significant upward potential across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. I'm just not yet ready to be as aggressive as the 0z ETA but its recent consistency does make an argument for the upward potential.

[ohiostorm]

What are your predictions for East Central Ohio?

[donsutherland1]

Cleveland: 6"-10"
Columbus: 3"-6"