18Z shows

[BL03]

BTW..........I think 18z GFS migth be too far north OR that the north trend will end soon .............1) because of the 50/50 low (blocking in Can) 2) because a huge 1036mb high is coming right down folks from Hudson Bay......

The 18z does push it south more (ESE) when reforming primary but still a little too far north IMO........ but its still ok for me! lol Woo- ----

Also my point from the above posts.

lol....yes your the PRO........


What a week it has been SO FAR!

[wxguy25]

Geez...you two are starting to sound like JEB w/ the BRING IT statement. LOL!! but I agree Bring it b/c Ill be in SE NY on SAT, SUN, and MON. What timing huh?

[wxguy25]

What a week it has been SO FAR!

OH this is JUST the tip of the proverbial ICE BERG. Just wait Until were 48hrs out and living by each Radar frame.

[adelphi_sky]

Any cold air damming scenarios playing out for the DC area?

[JenyEliza]

Geez...you two are starting to sound like JEB w/ the BRING IT statement. LOL!! but I agree Bring it b/c Ill be in SE NY on SAT, SUN, and MON. What timing huh?

WHERE is Jeb, anyway? I figured we'd be seeing "Jeb-walk" threads by this afternoon....

[wxguy25]

Any cold air damming scenarios playing out for the DC area?

Yes. The Low level Arctic Air isn't going anywhere w/ the high in position over Ontario. the WAA won't be able to take it out below ~950 or 960mb probably.

[wxguy25]

Geez...you two are starting to sound like JEB w/ the BRING IT statement. LOL!! but I agree Bring it b/c Ill be in SE NY on SAT, SUN, and MON. What timing huh?

WHERE is Jeb, anyway? I figured we'd be seeing "Jeb-walk" threads by this afternoon....

yeah I wonder too. I kinda miss his enthusiasm

[wxguy25]

Any cold air damming scenarios playing out for the DC area?

Yes. The Low level Arctic Air isn't going anywhere w/ the high in position over Ontario. the WAA won't be able to take it out below ~950 or 960mb probably.

that as you know would result in an icing situation. A possibility that **IF** the Euro from this afternoon is on the right track---is an option we would have to really consider and explore in greater detail

[JenyEliza]

Geez...you two are starting to sound like JEB w/ the BRING IT statement. LOL!! but I agree Bring it b/c Ill be in SE NY on SAT, SUN, and MON. What timing huh?

WHERE is Jeb, anyway? I figured we'd be seeing "Jeb-walk" threads by this afternoon....

yeah I wonder too. I kinda miss his enthusiasm

The JEB-WALK discussions are always a treat!!

JEB....OH JEB.....WHERE ARE YOU?

[Alexm89]

Man... some of this stuff doesn't make sense.. so that Arctic High over DC.. will that help for heavy snow for N virginia and DC?

[adelphi_sky]

Any cold air damming scenarios playing out for the DC area?

Yes. The Low level Arctic Air isn't going anywhere w/ the high in position over Ontario. the WAA won't be able to take it out below ~950 or 960mb probably.

that as you know would result in an icing situation. A possibility that **IF** the Euro from this afternoon is on the right track---is an option we would have to really consider and explore in greater detail

Thanks

[wxguy25]

Man... some of this stuff doesn't make sense.. so that Arctic High over DC.. will that help for heavy snow for N virginia and DC?

Youre misunderstanding what I said. The arctic high IS NOT over DCA its over Ontario for starters. Secondly, it will push cold air southward east of the Appalachians in the low levels becoming increasingly shallow the further south you go. The 850mb low track -- IF into OH/W PA will cause Warm air advection to punch a shallow layer hole in cold the mid levels causing precip to change to ZRA / IP.

Again BETTER chance for SN / IP further north where the warm layer is shallow/ cold layer deeper, and ZRA south where the cold layer is closer to the surface and Shallow. VA may start as SNOW change to IP/ZRA / RAIn then back to snow.

[BL03]

Geez...you two are starting to sound like JEB w/ the BRING IT statement. LOL!! but I agree Bring it b/c Ill be in SE NY on SAT, SUN, and MON. What timing huh?

lol......... Man you going to be in SE NY this weekend.........Good for you man!

You dont know how much I like snow........OH boy..... with only about 2" (30"AVG) this year I need a big one.

BTW BL03===Blizzardlover03................ hmmmmmmmmmm yes I like snow.........and what are they called Jebwalks yeah that tooo...and woman(Off topic!!) ........ in my 20-30" BLIZZARD! Ok time to clam down


00z Euro your next Bi##^%!

[Fodie77]

I may not be the best at reading forcast models, but to me it looks like VA still has a good chance here.

[Stormsfury]

Any cold air damming scenarios playing out for the DC area?

Yes. The Low level Arctic Air isn't going anywhere w/ the high in position over Ontario. the WAA won't be able to take it out below ~950 or 960mb probably.

that as you know would result in an icing situation. A possibility that **IF** the Euro from this afternoon is on the right track---is an option we would have to really consider and explore in greater detail

I still have a problem WRT to the rollover effect on the HP in Eastern Canada, nosing down, that the clipper system is portraying with the dive to the SE, and furthermore, this again is arctic air with extremely dry TD's. I don't believe at all that the HP will scour out as readily as the guidance is portraying and furthermore, I believe a good portion of South Carolina has an icing problem by the time this all comes to fruitation ... (dry slot saves/screws many in the lower Carolinas, as usual) ...

with an immense 50/50 low or shall we say, a PV extension, so to speak ... I just don't see how SLP can move thru the "cold dome" so readily and easily, especially dealing w/TD's likely in the single digits or even BLO ZERO ... not only are we dealing with a wedge configuration, but evaporational cooling to only further enhance the wedge once the precip gets going ...

SF

[Guest]

I may not be the best at reading forcast models, but to me it looks like VA still has a good chance here.

Would that be snow for places like NYC-PHL and DC?

[jkt21787]

I may not be the best at reading forcast models, but to me it looks like VA still has a good chance here.

Would that be snow for places like NYC-PHL and DC?

I think it would be all snow for NYC, but there could be mixing from PHL south to DC. This is based just on the 18z though.

[Fodie77]

I may not be the best at reading forcast models, but to me it looks like VA still has a good chance here.

Would that be snow for places like NYC-PHL and DC?

Yes, I believe so. BTW, when I say it still looks good for VA, I say that in terms of the fact that I live in extreme northern VA, where it still appears to me, based on precipitation estimates by Monday, I could still be seeing some significant snow.

[wxguy25]

Geez...you two are starting to sound like JEB w/ the BRING IT statement. LOL!! but I agree Bring it b/c Ill be in SE NY on SAT, SUN, and MON. What timing huh?

lol......... Man you going to be in SE NY this weekend.........Good for you man!

You dont know how much I like snow........OH boy..... with only about 2" (30"AVG) this year I need a big one.

BTW BL03===Blizzardlover03................ hmmmmmmmmmm yes I like snow.........and what are they called Jebwalks yeah that tooo...and woman(Off topic!!) ........ in my 20-30" BLIZZARD! Ok time to clam down


00z Euro your next Bi##^%!

yes me too but My career/family brought me to this warm / snowless hell that SOME like to call "Florida".

Hey how about a JEBWALK through 25" of snow w/ leah Remini? Don't know about you but I can't think of anything better.

I'll be staying in Delhi, NY (Delaware County). I'm going to up there looking for property near the Hartwick area. Out in the middle of nowhere.

Oh BTW for those that need a graphical illustration of what I mean by a "shallow warm layer" here is an example sounding:

[Guest]

Who will be getting rain now with the new 18z model? Would the big cities like (DC-PHL-NYC) see more rain now? I mean all the other weather stations have highs in the mid 20's!