18Z shows

[jkt21787]

Notice here the 540 thickness lines are very close if not just northwest of both DC and PHL. It could very well be a snow/sleet/rain mix for a time, although way too soon to tell for excact Ptype.

[wxguy25]

Notice here the 540 thickness lines are very close is not just northwest of both DC and PHL. It could very well be a snow/sleet/rain mix for a time, although way too soon to tell for excact Ptype.

DEEP LAYER thicknesses or even partial thicknesses aren't a great predictor of SNow vs other p-types.

[Fodie77]

Wxguy, here in northern VA, our highs from Sat to Mon are in the mid 20's. Even if warm air punched in, I don't know if it could raise the temp above freezing in the upper level. Just wondering, unfortunately I'm just a n00b though.

[jkt21787]

Notice here the 540 thickness lines are very close is not just northwest of both DC and PHL. It could very well be a snow/sleet/rain mix for a time, although way too soon to tell for excact Ptype.

DEEP LAYER thicknesses or even partial thicknesses aren't a great predictor of SNow vs other p-types.

Yes, very true, which is why I said it was way too soon. Just be aware that the area could go either way with precipitation, but I would still consider the area very much under a signficant snow threat right now.

[wxguy25]

Wxguy, here in northern VA, our highs from Sat to Mon are in the mid 20's. Even if warm air punched in, I don't know if it could raise the temp above freezing in the upper level. Just wondering, unfortunately I'm just a n00b though.

You can have a VERY shallow layer of arctic air. I have seen situations w/ SFC temps of 10-20 DEG F and ZRA/IP. IF the 850 low track is into PA before jumping to the coast, a warm layer will probably sneak in for a short time. This would be MORE of a problem (snowfall total limiting factor) for DCA and the coastal / I-95 regions as compared to you up there in the Shenandoah Valley, but nonetheless a changeover is a changeover.

[Fodie77]

Wxguy, here in northern VA, our highs from Sat to Mon are in the mid 20's. Even if warm air punched in, I don't know if it could raise the temp above freezing in the upper level. Just wondering, unfortunately I'm just a n00b though.

You can have a VERY shallow layer of arctic air. I have seen situations w/ SFC temps of 10-20 DEG F and ZRA/IP. IF the 850 low track is into PA before jumping to the coast, a warm layer will probably sneak in for a short time. This would be MORE of a problem (snowfall total limiting factor) for DCA and the coastal / I-95 regions as compared to you up there in the Shenandoah Valley, but nonetheless a changeover is a changeover.

Thanks. BTW, you're the first person I've EVER talked to on ANY forum that actually knew Winchester is in the Shenandoah Valley. <bows down> What do you think I could be looking at here though, as in a VERY rough snow/icing precipitation estimate.

[jkt21787]

Wxguy, here in northern VA, our highs from Sat to Mon are in the mid 20's. Even if warm air punched in, I don't know if it could raise the temp above freezing in the upper level. Just wondering, unfortunately I'm just a n00b though.

You can have a VERY shallow layer of arctic air. I have seen situations w/ SFC temps of 10-20 DEG F and ZRA/IP. IF the 850 low track is into PA before jumping to the coast, a warm layer will probably sneak in for a short time. This would be MORE of a problem (snowfall total limiting factor) for DCA and the coastal / I-95 regions as compared to you up there in the Shenandoah Valley, but nonetheless a changeover is a changeover.

The arctic air can be very shallow. Back in our Dec storm, we had temps falling into the teens, and still couldn't manage to change that sleet to snow until right at the end. Wxguy is also right that the best changeover possibility would be the coastal areas and 1-95 cities.

[wxguy25]

Wxguy, here in northern VA, our highs from Sat to Mon are in the mid 20's. Even if warm air punched in, I don't know if it could raise the temp above freezing in the upper level. Just wondering, unfortunately I'm just a n00b though.

You can have a VERY shallow layer of arctic air. I have seen situations w/ SFC temps of 10-20 DEG F and ZRA/IP. IF the 850 low track is into PA before jumping to the coast, a warm layer will probably sneak in for a short time. This would be MORE of a problem (snowfall total limiting factor) for DCA and the coastal / I-95 regions as compared to you up there in the Shenandoah Valley, but nonetheless a changeover is a changeover.

Thanks. BTW, you're the first person I've EVER talked to on ANY forum that actually knew Winchester is in the Shenandoah Valley. <bows down> What do you think I could be looking at here though, as in a VERY rough snow/icing precipitation estimate.

I know the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions quite well.
Anyway, I'd say a mix of everything EXCEPT plain rain. Biased somewhat toward Snow as the predominant precip type right now. BUT its early so just sit back and take it easy. There is PLENTY of time to work out those details.

[DS]

Just commenting on Stormsfury earlier post about how the GFS may be breaking or intruding on the high too much. I was just checking forecast soundings. And for Sat 12Z, the 12Z GFS has a dew point of -11 F and an air temp of 21 F for Raleigh, NC. From prior experience, this calls for IP no matter how big the warm nose is. Therefore, the icing threat appears to be further south.

[Guest]

This is crazy. What a hell of a trend for here especially. If this all pans out as the models are starting to suggest and we get what should fall between now and Thursday here i could have well over 2 feet on the ground and 3 ft will not be out of the question as well. 3ft actually seems more reasonable considering the high ratios that would come with the weekend event.

Which IF and i say IF all goes as COULD happen i will have exceeded my seasonal average of snowfall here by Thursday which is 56 inches and as well AFTER the weekend IF all goes as COULD happen the seasonal snowfall record wont be far behind. BTW the most snow in a season ever for here is 96 inches! And we could be sitting somewhere around 80 for this season if all goes by the end of the weekend.

And here is a little intresting tid bit for all. IF all goes as is looking to be the case (Unless something drastic happens to alter the pattern fully) This will be about the 3rd time in a row that i have moved somewhere and the winter seasonal snowfall record has fallen the following winter or so afterwards with me being there ofcourse! I need to move more often perhaps!

[donsutherland1]

Fodie,

FWY, I drove through Winchester near Route 66 a number of years ago.

[wxguy25]

Alright this should give everyone an idea on where I stand right now.



http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/sat-mon.gif

[Chris the Weather Man]

Perfect Idea......

[Stephanie]

I hope it changes back from ice to snow.

Thanks for your update though wxguy!

[wxguy25]

I hope it changes back from ice to snow.

Thanks for your update though wxguy!

IF the 850mb low runs into OH or PA and then waits for a time to transfer to the coast Its hard for me to see a reason why coastal / SRN NJ would not change to mixed precip.

Don't get me wrong, Steph you WILL BEGIN as snow but probably change to ZRA/IP as the transfer takes place. This is pretty much climo for a MILLER B situation w/ 850mb low jump from OH/ W PA to the NJ / Delmarva coast. Once the flow comes in off the ocean -- coastal S NJ is finished. The ECMWF D 5 has H85 temps soaring to +2 to +5 C across S NJ while in the NW PHL suburbs and N NJ / NYC they barely get to 0 to -2 C. this leads me to believe that the warm layer across S NJ is pretty strong and moderately deep.

PLus there appears to be a 30-40 KT Southerly and / Southeasterly LLJ directed at S NJ right off the water at h85. this is NOT good for the coastal regions.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Sounds like I am a good spot not to see rain or am I mistaken? The bad thing is..... Sleet/Freezing Rain, will bring down our totals... Same thing happened in PD II, Changed over to sleet, for 2.5 hours, if it did not, we would have broken the Blizzard 1996 total.... Prob around 30" if it did not changed over to sleet....

[Fodie77]

You say I'm in an area where the ice storm threat is increasing, what do you think about our snow chances here? Every station around is still saying an all snow event IF it happens.

[JenyEliza]

Alright this should give everyone an idea on where I stand right now.



http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/sat-mon.gif

Good old Atlanta. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride! Again. <sigh>

Oh well...we didn't really need snow anyway. We'll just get a good cold soaking rain (as usual). Oh, how I look forward to THAT this weekend.

Sorry, Wxguy....I know it's not your fault. I don't hold you responsible.

.....heading back to the "Blizzardless 2005" thread.....(perhaps I should just change the title to "Snowless 2005"?)



Jeny

[wxguy25]

You say I'm in an area where the ice storm threat is increasing, what do you think about our snow chances here? Every station around is still saying an all snow event IF it happens.

you will start as snow. thats a given.

I can't account for the forecasts from your Local MET.

This is what I feel is the MOST LIKELY situation at this point. will it change over the next few days? Yes. Is the above map a Lock? NO.

[wxguy25]

the good news is the NAM had a decent initialization so we should have something good to work with model wise this 0z cycle.