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krysof · #61 Postby **krysof** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 10:38 pm

How are the models looking as of 0z wxguy.

#62 Postby **wxguy25** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 10:55 pm

krysof wrote:How are the models looking as of 0z wxguy.

Look good. NAM is out (only runs to 84 hrs but thats good enough to see the trend) and showing a phased solution. MAY need to extend the snow a bit further South and west across the Midwest next time I put out a map.

jkt21787 · #63 Postby **jkt21787** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 10:58 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
krysof wrote:How are the models looking as of 0z wxguy.

Look good. NAM is out (only runs to 84 hrs but thats good enough to see the trend) and showing a phased solution. MAY need to extend the snow a bit further South and west across the Midwest next time I put out a map.

NAM is the new name for the ETA, right?

If so, has that gone "official" yet?

krysof · #64 Postby **krysof** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 10:58 pm

Good, that east coast snowstorm is looking better.

spf · #65 Postby **spf** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 10:59 pm

wxguy25, when you say "south," do you mean that DCA/IAD will see more snow based on the latest models?

krysof · #66 Postby **krysof** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:00 pm

what about middlesex county, nj?

#67 Postby **wxguy25** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:03 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
krysof wrote:How are the models looking as of 0z wxguy.

Look good. NAM is out (only runs to 84 hrs but thats good enough to see the trend) and showing a phased solution. MAY need to extend the snow a bit further South and west across the Midwest next time I put out a map.

NAM is the new name for the ETA, right?

If so, has that gone "official" yet?

As of JAN 05 yes it is official.

#68 Postby **wxguy25** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:04 pm

spf wrote:wxguy25, when you say "south," do you mean that DCA/IAD will see more snow based on the latest models?

No. that comment doesn't pertain to the Mid Atlantic at all.

jkt21787 · #69 Postby **jkt21787** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:04 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
krysof wrote:How are the models looking as of 0z wxguy.

Look good. NAM is out (only runs to 84 hrs but thats good enough to see the trend) and showing a phased solution. MAY need to extend the snow a bit further South and west across the Midwest next time I put out a map.

NAM is the new name for the ETA, right?

If so, has that gone "official" yet?

As of JAN 05 yes it is official.

OK, thanks. Guess we have to get used to that now, kind of like GFS from AVN.

#70 Postby **wxguy25** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:05 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
krysof wrote:How are the models looking as of 0z wxguy.

Look good. NAM is out (only runs to 84 hrs but thats good enough to see the trend) and showing a phased solution. MAY need to extend the snow a bit further South and west across the Midwest next time I put out a map.

NAM is the new name for the ETA, right?

If so, has that gone "official" yet?

As of JAN 05 yes it is official.

OK, thanks. Guess we have to get used to that now, kind of like GFS from AVN.

I was still calling it the MRF out of habit until about DEC 2002. LOL!!

Just get used to Typing NAM now instead of ETA

krysof · #71 Postby **krysof** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:28 pm

Newest gfs models show the 0 c line further south.

#72 Postby **wxguy25** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:39 pm

krysof wrote:Newest gfs models show the 0 c line further south.

The GFS has begun the waffling process I said it would this afternoon. its also drier and having a harder time phasing the streams IMO its suspect. has the QPF maxima across the Delmarva region w/ over 2.00" all snow or mostly all snow. That would translate to about 20" of snow over that area based on a 10:1 ratio. 1.50" gets into philly and 1.25 into NYC and NJ. IN other words not that much different but it doesnt sit right w/ me. its SFC low is weaker too.

Wnghs2007 · #73 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:55 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
krysof wrote:Newest gfs models show the 0 c line further south.

The GFS has begun the waffling process I said it would this afternoon. its also drier and having a harder time phasing the streams IMO its suspect. has the QPF maxima across the Delmarva region w/ over 2.00" all snow or mostly all snow. That would translate to about 20" of snow over that area based on a 10:1 ratio. 1.50" gets into philly and 1.25 into NYC and NJ. IN other words not that much different but it doesnt sit right w/ me. its SFC low is weaker too.

Dont forget the GFS is being its usuall stupid self. Placing the Low right where the Cadding will be, so in which the Low cannot be,

Nothing at all IMO is set in stone as of now....heck it will be thursday before we really know whethere or not there is a 50/50 and where its going to set up. And for the storm part...well Im not sure we will not even know until 24 hrs out or less with the GFS.

ETA on the other hand is diffrent in that it beats the GFS to a pulp when cadding happens.

Another Reason why the GFS= GOOD FOR S***!

krysof · #74 Postby **krysof** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 2:57 pm

A blizzard is really possible but the models are moving it too fast like the gfs. I believe the heavy snow bands will be from D.C into northern new jersey and northeastern PA. Who thinks the models are pulling the storm too quickly?

krysof · #75 Postby **krysof** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 6:00 pm

Models are losing it!

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