My First Call On This Weekends Events...

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Ah let the fun begin, as a rule for my forecasting I always make a first call once in the 3-4 day range before a storm... Confidence is at a medium level, I think we've seen the furthest north this storm will get with the 18z GFS run (by the way I couldn't believe some of those QPF's from that run, ex. Middletown, PA: 2.7" liquid equivelent of snow, with ratios that will be closer to 15:1, that's alot of snow, possible, but a bit to high)... Here's my first call on the storm any comments or questions are welcomed....

[therock1811]

Ice is NOT a word I want to see for here. Great map!

If I may ask, though, where did you get the background map?

[Lowpressure]

Looks very nice. However, I think your storm track is too far north. Move the snow shield further south. D.C. is issuing Winter Storm advisories already in preparation for "an extended snow event." Very nice graphics.

[angelwing]

KYW and Accuweather have already been saying a major snow event for this weekend starting Saturday night. Believe it or not, I trust my knees better than their news and they started hurting last night, so I'm calling for at least 20 inches based on the "knee" forecast, lol!

Great map BTW!

[weathermom]

angelwing- the knees know!!! Since I wrecked my knee 3 years ago, I have become pretty good at knowing when something is coming. I don't have it down to knowing if it will be rain or snow. I can't quite call accumulations, but I can tell if it is a "big one" or not.

I have to trave from north jersey to central connecticut this weekend, therefore I would say it is safe to assume that is where the heavy snow will be. If I were staying home and hoping for a huge storm, we would miss it.

How is that for the least scientific forecast you have ever seen?

[Miss Mary]

LOL at knees!!! I broke my right ankle 12 years ago and it aches when there's major precip coming. So this observation has merit IMHO!

Question.....at this very early call, what is the Ohio Valley in store for from the Friday into Saturday storm? More ice than snow? More snow than ice? I know it's too soon to nail down, but at this point, what is the best guess? I want to stock up on groceries if we're looking at an ice storm with possible power outages. And we just installed a new gas fireplace in our basement. We can run it in power outages!!!! What timing....

Thanks!!!

[Brent]

Uh... there's no way the rain/frozen stuff cutoff will be that far north. I expect Snow flurries into Northern Georgia(maybe even Central Georgia) and a major snowfall of at least 4 inches in the mountains of Eastern Tennessee and Western North Carolina.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

I agree with the moderate snowfall path,but it is too cold for all the moisture to be a rain event in the western Carolinas...........mix at least...then on the back of storm change over to snow showers on Sunday......JSB........ Longrange ---What will recurving Tropical System east Of Japan do to the pattern by the end of next week or beyond???...My thinking is that a super storm will form near or along the east coast and bring heavy snow to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.....JSB

[Gord_on_snow]

Miss Mary,

I notice our local NWS office dont want to commit just yet but have put a menntion in the hazordous weather discussion.

Touch and go for here, should be interesting...i''m hoping for all snow of course as it has potential for me to see the most snow i've seen in a very long time (seeing i'm from the UK).

Great map as well. Everyone is sitting on the fence right now for what it will do to central Ohio and its going to make it a nerve racking time i'm sure!

[BowMeHunter]

looks to me like 6-12"+ snows for most of the NE, North of PA THROUGH early AM Monday..

[DLI2k5]

So JSB.......Your thinking is right now that portions of NC/SC will seeing mixing and a gradual changeover to snow at this point? Even from Atlanta points east?

[Guest]

So JSB.......Your thinking is right now that portions of NC/SC will seeing mixing and a gradual changeover to snow at this point? Even from Atlanta points east?

That is highly doubtfull at this point IMHO. Especially as far south as Atlanta. The main concern from the upstate of SC NORTH is mixing and not so much snow. Unless somehow the models do a flip on us which at this point seems very doubtfull.

[ohiostorm]

Long as I stay in red!

[weathermom]

NYC news this noon says "could be less than a foot, could be more" DUH

[ohiostorm]

What else is there???? There way of saving their butts!

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I have to say the amount of ridging in the west is going to make this thing come further north, personally I think the GFS is on crack, it's putting to much emphasis on the first part of the system and is a little too fast as well, if that's what most of you on here are looking at, from what I've looked at I like the way the ETA is looking, it doesn't go out that far, but I like where it has the bands of heavy snow setting up.

As for accumulations as a rule I don't make callls on this until 36-48 hours out, particularly with a storm of this magnitude, I will say this though for places in blue don't expect more than 6", places in red don't expect more than 12", and places in maroon, well that's the big question isn't it, at this point I will put the cap at 30" for places in red, make sure you understand what I'm saying though, that is max snowfall potential, I will not get into details yet.

As for the future, I think this is just the beginning of a ver nasty pattern, and to tell yo the truth I think that even if you get missed with this storm, there will be shots at storm of this magnitude in the near future, this winter may end up being very bad in the east after all.

The map, I'm not sure where I got it, I have so many, sorry...

jer

[Dave C]

As for now aren't the models trending towards a more southerly and weaker system. At this point I just don't see more than a minor to maybe borderline moderate event in southern New England. I relize this may change on later model runs but as of now my area(southern NE) seems to be of the hook. Hopefully the southern trend with weaker system will continue. It will be interesting to see if Thursday's models continue this southern solution.