JENYELIZA!!! SNOW ALERT!!!

[Brent]

For the Atlanta metro:

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLURRIES. WINDY
AND COLDER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY...THEN FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 30S.

[JenyEliza]

Flurries? Is that all?

[JenyEliza]

I know. I'm pathetic. A few predicted flurries, and I'm ready to break out the keg!

[Cookiely]

I know. I'm pathetic. A few predicted flurries, and I'm ready to break out the keg!

If we had flurries in Tampa, I would break out the Champagne!

[Stormsfury]

18z GFS interesting, but again, not quite touching reality ... IOW, CHS would get 3" of snow, maybe slightly more, with 528DM thicknesses in the wraparound ...

Interestingly enough ... the southern s/w is trending stronger and stronger ... with the overall system trending ever slightly south ... eventually, the damn models may realize the CAD component, but underbellied nonetheless..

SF

[Brent]

18z GFS interesting, but again, not quite touching reality ... IOW, CHS would get 3" of snow, maybe slightly more, with 528DM thicknesses in the wraparound ...

Interestingly enough ... the southern s/w is trending stronger and stronger ... with the overall system trending ever slightly south ... eventually, the damn models may realize the CAD component, but underbellied nonetheless..

SF

What do you think about Gatlinburg??? Snow/ice or both? I know it'll start as rain...

[JenyEliza]

18z GFS interesting, but again, not quite touching reality ... IOW, CHS would get 3" of snow, maybe slightly more, with 528DM thicknesses in the wraparound ...

Interestingly enough ... the southern s/w is trending stronger and stronger ... with the overall system trending ever slightly south ... eventually, the damn models may realize the CAD component, but underbellied nonetheless..

SF

So...I guess the big question is this: IF we get "flurries" this weekend, will they be of the same variety as prior to Christmas (ie, all 8 of 'em--I counted)?

OR will there be too many to count (whether or not they stick around).

OR are we just talking about another danged cold soaking rainy Saturday? I'm confused (not hard when we're talking about weather, either).

[JenyEliza]

18z GFS interesting, but again, not quite touching reality ... IOW, CHS would get 3" of snow, maybe slightly more, with 528DM thicknesses in the wraparound ...

Interestingly enough ... the southern s/w is trending stronger and stronger ... with the overall system trending ever slightly south ... eventually, the damn models may realize the CAD component, but underbellied nonetheless..

SF

What do you think about Gatlinburg??? Snow/ice or both? I know it'll start as rain...

I thought you started this thread about ATLANTA SNOW? Go start your own Gatlinburg thread and leave me to my misery--SNOW HOG!!

[Brent]

OR are we just talking about another danged cold soaking rainy Saturday? I'm confused (not hard when we're talking about weather, either).

Regardless of whether there is snow... Saturday will be a cold wet day. Any flurries/snow would be late that night and Sunday.

[JenyEliza]

From Peachtree City NWS at 6:30 pm tonight.

000
FXUS62 KFFC 192331 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EST WED JAN 19 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT WITHOUT PERIODS OF UPS AND DOWNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING NEXT 3 DAYS AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE SOUTHEAST IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION. PE VALUES DO RISE ENOUGH TO 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT ON ETA/GFS THAT WE MAY GET SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NE GA MOUNTAINS.

TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOUT NORMAL LEVEL NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AS WAA HELPS PULL TEMPS UP.

FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEAK WEDGE THAT COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AS ETA PREFERS A SATURDAY WEDGE WHILE GFS IS FRIDAY. CANADIAN/NGM/UKMET SUPPORT A BLEND OF LATE FRIDAY INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY ERODING LATE SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL USE THIS BLEND WHICH MEANS TEMPS SATURDAY ABOUT THE SAME AS FRIDAY. DECENT NW UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY TO PUSH WEAK WEDGE INTO GA...BUT THIS ENDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP WILL THEN FALL WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HOLD WEDGING IN LONGER THAN GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
GFS/UKMET/ECWMF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL USE 1000/850 THICKNESS TECHNIQUE FOR MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CURRENT GFS EXTENDED MOS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WITH STRONG CAA SUNDAY AND LOW LEVEL 850 MB MOISTURE...AND A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM COMING OVER NORTH GA...EXPECT FLURRIES TO GET SQUEEZED OUT. WHERE BEST UPPER VERTICAL MOTIONS OCCURS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
GA...WILL ADD SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO.

COLD AIR WILL LAST INTO MONDAY WITH MINS WAY DOWN IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE AGAIN.

TEMPS MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AS NEXT CLIPPER PULLS WAY NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER.
&&

[JenyEliza]

From this afternoon's AFD:

STRONG VORTICITY MAX WILL COME ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH 950-850 MB LAYER RH EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 80-90% COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX...EXPECT FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-20 SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 11 PM AS STRONG CAA KICKS IN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING PER LATEST UKMET/GFS/ETA SURFACE GRIDS. EXPECT WINDS TO REACH 20 TO 30
MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR ATL/AHN AND POINT NORTH WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MENTIONED IN FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS. SNOW TECHNIQUES SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH GA BASED ON CURRENT TRACK OF VORT MAX...BUT EXPECT FEW PROBLEMS IN GA...EXCEPT POSSIBLE FAR NE CORNER AS MOST PLACES SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES.

[Seele]

Woohoo, I'm north of I-20 Kinda bad to get excited over a few overnight flurries, but sure beats the spring-like weather we've had the previous couple of weeks.

[JenyEliza]

Woohoo, I'm north of I-20 Kinda bad to get excited over a few overnight flurries, but sure beats the spring-like weather we've had the previous couple of weeks.

I know, I'm north of I-20-too. Pathetic, aren't we?

[Brent]

Woohoo, I'm north of I-20 Kinda bad to get excited over a few overnight flurries, but sure beats the spring-like weather we've had the previous couple of weeks.

I know, I'm north of I-20-too. Pathetic, aren't we?

Yep... but I know the feeling.