Discussion from HPC Jan 19=New England wont see heavy snow

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cycloneye
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Discussion from HPC Jan 19=New England wont see heavy snow

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 19, 2005 3:15 pm

THE THREAT REMAINS FOR A SIGNIFICANT E-CENTRAL US WINTER STORM
THIS WEEKEND. THE 12 UTC ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED GEARS TO A COLDER AND
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS SO THE
LATEST 12 UTC GFS HAS NOW BEEN USED AS A BASIS FOR THE FINAL HPC
PROGS. THE COLD SOLUTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY THE 12 UTC UKMET
AND THE ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS. OPT TO STILL SLOW DOWN
SYSTEM PROGRESSION A TAD MORE THAN THE 12 UTC GFS THIS WEEKEND TO
KEEP BETTER HPC PROG CONTINUITY AND AS PER LINGERING UNCERTAINTY.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW
AND ICE FROM THE CENTRAL/UPPER OH VALLEY STATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND DAMMED MID-ATLC SAT INTO SUN AS A OH VALLEY LOW
SHIFTS EWD AND REFORMS ON THE MID-ATLC COAST BY SUN MORNING BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS SCENARIO PROVIDES A LESSER RISK FOR HEAVY
SNOW FOR NEW ENG BUT AT LEAST SRN SECTIONS ARE NOT YET OUT OF THE
WOODS CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERTATE RAINS
FARTHER SWWD ACROSS THE SE/SRN US WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS
AIDED BY ANY SRN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING OUT FROM MEX.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html



The low looks like it will go out to sea instead to ride up the coast.
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krysof

#2 Postby krysof » Wed Jan 19, 2005 3:18 pm

You have no idea if it will go out to sea and even if it does, it will still give decent snows to southern new england like central new jersey. These systems always seem to suprise us and it's only Wednesday. We have Thursday and Friday to watch it, even early Saturday. So many things need to be found out.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 19, 2005 4:16 pm

krysof wrote:You have no idea if it will go out to sea and even if it does, it will still give decent snows to southern new england like central new jersey. These systems always seem to suprise us and it's only Wednesday. We have Thursday and Friday to watch it, even early Saturday. So many things need to be found out.


Yes still not a stone what final track it will take eventually.By tommorow we will know a lot more when the runs from the models finetune the tracks.
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#4 Postby krysof » Wed Jan 19, 2005 4:32 pm

and especially Friday
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Wed Jan 19, 2005 5:10 pm

Don't go with the south track models. Still liking the EC trackwise. Speed and "to phase or not to phase" is the question. There is the potential this thing could slow a bit and if it rides the EC track, could really bomb as it heads towards the benchmark. Damn I wish I could get on a plane now and head for LI. :(
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#6 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Jan 19, 2005 5:15 pm

HPC talks just like my local NWS does. Like they know what there talking about. They talk through models that change on every run. Tomorrow will be different. Probably more north then more west then more east........ :roll:
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#7 Postby wxguy25 » Wed Jan 19, 2005 5:29 pm

Steve H. wrote:Don't go with the south track models. Still liking the EC trackwise. Speed and "to phase or not to phase" is the question. There is the potential this thing could slow a bit and if it rides the EC track, could really bomb as it heads towards the benchmark. Damn I wish I could get on a plane now and head for LI. :(


I generally agree w/ what you have said. The 18z GFS puts off the phasing and actually has a two part event.

Phasing and timing. I general I think the 0z ECMWF from today had the right idea. But we'll see.

the situation is getting MORE complicated w/ each run.
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#8 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 19, 2005 5:50 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Don't go with the south track models. Still liking the EC trackwise. Speed and "to phase or not to phase" is the question. There is the potential this thing could slow a bit and if it rides the EC track, could really bomb as it heads towards the benchmark. Damn I wish I could get on a plane now and head for LI. :(


I generally agree w/ what you have said. The 18z GFS puts off the phasing and actually has a two part event.

Phasing and timing. I general I think the 0z ECMWF from today had the right idea. But we'll see.

the situation is getting MORE complicated w/ each run.


What do you think about Gatlinburg, TN? It's in the Smokies at about 2,000 feet elevation less than 10 miles from the NC border and Mount LeConte(6,600 feet)

NWS seems to think significant snowfall accumulations. Do you agree?
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#9 Postby spf » Wed Jan 19, 2005 5:56 pm

How does this weekend look for DCA/IAD right now?

All snow or a mix?
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#10 Postby adelphi_sky » Wed Jan 19, 2005 6:17 pm

spf wrote:How does this weekend look for DCA/IAD right now?

All snow or a mix?



From what I've been reading all day, DC looks good for all snow at the moment. Of course that could change tomorrow. The highs don't get out of the 20s during the whole period.
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krysof

#11 Postby krysof » Wed Jan 19, 2005 6:20 pm

hmm what about new jersey?
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#12 Postby Alexm89 » Wed Jan 19, 2005 7:09 pm

so.. what about fredericksburg? It's close to DC.. I dont know, it seems like we're always on the line
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#13 Postby W13 » Wed Jan 19, 2005 7:39 pm

krysof wrote:hmm what about new jersey?


Looking at the latets model runs, New Jersey looks to be good for all snow. No idea on how much snow, and even if any will fall, though.
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#14 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:10 pm

Alexm89 wrote:so.. what about fredericksburg? It's close to DC.. I dont know, it seems like we're always on the line


I will certainly keep you up to date this weekend from my home. I am still thinking all snow even for Fredericksburg, but you are correct that we are always seemingly on the line.
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#15 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:14 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Don't go with the south track models. Still liking the EC trackwise. Speed and "to phase or not to phase" is the question. There is the potential this thing could slow a bit and if it rides the EC track, could really bomb as it heads towards the benchmark. Damn I wish I could get on a plane now and head for LI. :(


I generally agree w/ what you have said. The 18z GFS puts off the phasing and actually has a two part event.

Phasing and timing. I general I think the 0z ECMWF from today had the right idea. But we'll see.

the situation is getting MORE complicated w/ each run.



Yes, I think you are right, 0z ECMWF, had the better idea.
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#16 Postby Fodie77 » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:20 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Don't go with the south track models. Still liking the EC trackwise. Speed and "to phase or not to phase" is the question. There is the potential this thing could slow a bit and if it rides the EC track, could really bomb as it heads towards the benchmark. Damn I wish I could get on a plane now and head for LI. :(


I generally agree w/ what you have said. The 18z GFS puts off the phasing and actually has a two part event.

Phasing and timing. I general I think the 0z ECMWF from today had the right idea. But we'll see.

the situation is getting MORE complicated w/ each run.



Yes, I think you are right, 0z ECMWF, had the better idea.


Not to sound stupid, but I can't find the ECMWF anywhere. What is it saying right now?
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