00z ETA makes the jump back north!

[Guest]

This is not good news for Philly south and as well i70 south to the west of the apps.

even at 48hrs which for the most part is getting into good range for the eta the northern jump is evident. But thru 72hrs it a big deal especially for those in the MA.


And i think as well this has to be taken into account the supposed 50/50 as that is now well on its way.


Personally i like the trend for here.

[Tri-State_1925]

I don't know anything about these models, but if the King of Weather says so, that's good enough for me.

Stay safe on the roads this weekend, people. I'm heading up to MA tomorrow.

[Guest]

I don't know anything about these models, but if the King of Weather says so, that's good enough for me.

Stay safe on the roads this weekend, people. I'm heading up to MA tomorrow.

Well it will help once we see what the EC has to say about this. as well as the rest.

[jimvb]

Yes, the ETA jumps north, concerning Philadelphians but relieving Virginians and Carolinians. But the 18Z GFS jumped south. That low goes south towards SC and Virginia gets a lot of snow. So which will it be? The 00Z GFS has not come out yet. It will be interesting what that says. What does ECMWF say? I have not been able to get a good site for that.

[Guest]

Yes, the ETA jumps north, concerning Philadelphians but relieving Virginians and Carolinians. But the 18Z GFS jumped south. That low goes south towards SC and Virginia gets a lot of snow. So which will it be? The 00Z GFS has not come out yet. It will be interesting what that says. What does ECMWF say? I have not been able to get a good site for that.

First lesson with the models. Never go with the off runs of the gfs (or any for that matter) this far out. And by off runs i mean 06z and 18z runs. They get no euro data sent in etc. 00z and 12z runs are fully loaded.

More or less lets see what the 00z gfs says. should be starting.

[wxguy25]

Yes, the ETA jumps north, concerning Philadelphians but relieving Virginians and Carolinians. But the 18Z GFS jumped south. That low goes south towards SC and Virginia gets a lot of snow. So which will it be? The 00Z GFS has not come out yet. It will be interesting what that says. What does ECMWF say? I have not been able to get a good site for that.

First lesson with the models. Never go with the off runs of the gfs (or any for that matter) this far out. And by off runs i mean 06z and 18z runs. They get no euro data sent in etc. 00z and 12z runs are fully loaded.

More or less lets see what the 00z gfs says. should be starting.

Making sense of the mess:



CNO HAGA CASO DEL GFS!!! …



IGNORE THE GFS!!!!!!

I believe the ETA has the right Idea overall.

[wxguy25]

I don't see any major problems w/ the data coverage or initialization either.

292
NOUS42 KWNO 200250
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0248 UTC THU JAN 20 2005

200248..00Z MODELS ARE ON TIME WITH GOOD US/CAN
UPPER AIR DATA COVERAGE...31 CANADIAN..1 MEXICAN AND
4 CARIBBEAN UA STATIONS WERE RECEIVED FOR THE GFS...

FYI..13 PACIFIC RECON REPORTS WERE RCEIEVED FOR ETA/GFS
MODEL INGEST..

GFS RECAP

PASY/70414 - UNAVB PART A FOR ETA..IN FOR THE GFS
GJT/72476 - UNAVB FOR THE ETA..IN FOR THE GFS
UIL/72797 - UNAVB FOR THE ETA AND GFS

FYI...

THE NWS HAS REQUESTED THAT NO CHANGES BE MADE TO MISSION
CRITICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1/19/12Z TO 1/21/18Z
DUE TO A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY.


SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP
NNNN

[krysof]

When is the gfs coming out?

[Brent]

When is the gfs coming out?

Shortly.

[Brent]

It's running now

6am Saturday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060s.gif

Noon:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066s.gif

6pm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072s.gif

Midnight:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078s.gif

That's as far out as it goes right now

[jimvb]

There is enough of 00Z GFS out now. It says the center of the storm is going to go just south of the NC-VA border, and that VA gets much of the moisture. The ETA says that PA will get most of the storm. I hope the ETA is right. If I were living in PA of course I would hope the GFS was right. Is there any reason to believe ETA over GFS other than that GFS has been acting erratically this past year?

And oh yes. both ETA and GFS make a bigger weather event out of Thursday's Virginia storm than the TV weather people are saying. "Oh a dusting". And look what happened today.

[yoda]

Yes, the ETA jumps north, concerning Philadelphians but relieving Virginians and Carolinians. But the 18Z GFS jumped south. That low goes south towards SC and Virginia gets a lot of snow. So which will it be? The 00Z GFS has not come out yet. It will be interesting what that says. What does ECMWF say? I have not been able to get a good site for that.

First lesson with the models. Never go with the off runs of the gfs (or any for that matter) this far out. And by off runs i mean 06z and 18z runs. They get no euro data sent in etc. 00z and 12z runs are fully loaded.

More or less lets see what the 00z gfs says. should be starting.

Making sense of the mess:



CNO HAGA CASO DEL GFS!!! …



IGNORE THE GFS!!!!!!

I believe the ETA has the right Idea overall.

Well then you and Dave are at odds then, cause he says to ignore the 0z ETA.

[kmanWX]

Sorry guys for the peopel that live in PHL north per gfs..

[BL03]

Sorry guys for the peopel that live in PHL north per gfs..

Its over because the GFS is king!

[Tip]

New 12z ETA coming in and if anything it's further north so far. Could be some rain/snow issues developing for Mid-Atlantic. You can dismiss the ETA after 48hrs, but ETA getting close to it's killzone.

[angelwing]

Ok, I'm learning about this, so please bear with me. Am I understanding that Philly is *not* getting a lot of snow, or are we on that ice/rain line? I live in Philly and was hoping for a HUGE snowstorm.

Thank you for your help