Tropical Cyclone Ernest

[P.K.]

WTXS22 PGTW 172030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/172021ZJAN2005//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170921ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 170930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S8 56.5E6 TO 11.8S0 51.9E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 171730Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 56.1E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6 57.2E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.01 56.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 182030Z4.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4 84.5E7.//

18/0830 UTC 10.0S 54.4E T1.5/1.5 97S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

The system looks much better organized and if this trend continues it could very well become TC 12s in the next 24 hours.

[Rainband]

looks like another storm

[P.K.]

Potential still good in the update earlier this evening. Latest Dvorak figures are now 2.0

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak: 19/2030 UTC 12.0S 47.4E T3.0/3.0 97S -- South Indian Ocean

NRL: 35 knots

Next name in list is "Ernest."

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looking good here!

[MWatkins]

It looked a bit sheared from east to west...notice the elongation of the cloud pattern in the images posted above(which would be the same as westerly shear in the Atlantic...It's always hard for me to think of systems in the southern hemisphere because I look at them so infrequently)...however...the most recent IR imagery shows some pretty cold cloud tops consolidating near what appears to be the low center.



The most recent 37H SSMI pass (about 2 hours old now) suggests we have a closed low down there...although it's not as conclusive as a QScat pass...which we won't get for another 24 hours.



But there is zero question that we have a well-defined mid-level center in the 85H imagery...notice the blue dot just to the south of 12S:



That's clearly a depression and probably a tropical storm.

MW

[HURAKAN]

Finally after a long struggle Ernest has developed from Invest 97; subsequently, I believe the heading of the post should be changed to "Tropical Cyclone Ernest" by P.K. or a moderator. Ernest will move through the Mozambique Channel but any slight movement to the east or west will bring it close to the African or Madagascar coast.

[cycloneye]

Edited heading.

[James]

Is it just me, or is there a banding eye feature trying to develop?

[cycloneye]

PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 43.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 43.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 16.1S8 42.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.2S1 41.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 20.5S7 41.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 22.7S1 42.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 43.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 12S HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ENANCED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL OUTLFOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 201426Z5 TRMM PASS INDICATES A MORE SYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12S THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE AS UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND CONTINUED OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
11S (DAREN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Ernest Intensifies to 65 kts.

[HURAKAN]

Powerful Ernest churns in the Mozambique Channel, further intensification is expected.

[senorpepr]

Ernest continues to be a very impressive system.

[James]

An eye is now becoming visible. A rapidly intensifying system indeed.

[P.K.]

An eye is now becoming visible. A rapidly intensifying system indeed.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
20/2030 UTC 14.3S 43.2E T4.0/4.0 ERNEST
20/1430 UTC 13.8S 43.9E T2.0/3.0 ERNEST
20/0830 UTC 12.9S 45.0E T3.5/3.5 12S

Well it is certainly looking much stronger on the sat images than it was earlier.

[HURAKAN]

Our potent Tropical Cyclone Ernest continues to explode in its intensification process, and the system continues to exhibit an expectacular but tiny circulation with a clear puny eye.

[HurricaneBill]

Ernest Goes To Madagascar?

Oh come on! Somebody was bound to say it sooner or later!

[cycloneye]

//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 18.1S0 42.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 42.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 20.3S5 42.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 22.3S7 42.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 24.4S0 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 26.4S2 45.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 42.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE VENTILATION FOR TC 12S.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//
BT
#0001


Now the Maximun winds are at 90kts.

[HURAKAN]

First expected from Kerry in the South Pacific, now Ernest in the South Indian Ocean has achieved. Ernest becomes the first major cyclone of the 2005 season.

[P.K.]

Is the coastal area due to be affected by this heavily populated?