Baltimore/DC winter storm watch, snow amounts from clipper

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
WXBUFFJIM
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1971
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Baltimore

Baltimore/DC winter storm watch, snow amounts from clipper

#1 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Thu Jan 20, 2005 3:05 pm

Hey everybody. First the update of the day, a winter storm watch has been hoised for all of Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay including Baltimore, Washington, Hagerstown, and Fredrick in anticipation of more than 5 inches of snow being a possibility Saturday into Saturday night. There maybe more mixing south of a line from Washington DC to Annapolis and Dover. North of that line I expect all snow from this situation and mainly overrunning snow. Assuming that occurs and the coastal storm has minimal impact on us, I suspect will see a 6-8 inch snowfall across north central Maryland and possibly less snow in southern Maryland of 2-4" with ice on top of that and maybe even a bit of rain mixed in in lower southern Maryland. That's the early estimate here. Below is the NWS statement on this winter storm watch and will continue to monitor this closely.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
224 PM EST THU JAN 20 2005

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ027>031-039>042-050>057-
WVZ048>053-055-210400-
ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-
BERKELEY WV-CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-HOWARD MD-
JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-
MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-SPOTSYLVANIA VA-
ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
224 PM EST THU JAN 20 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.

A STORM DIVING DOWN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO
SUNDAY...BUT LOOKS LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT AT LEAST FIVE INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS
THE WEEKEND NEARS...AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES
THAT MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK.

MORE DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE STORM NEARS AND THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF THE STORM IS MORE WELL DEFINED.

$$
SMITH/STRONG




We also received 1.8" of snow here in Essex, MD in southeastern Baltimore County yesterday and 1.1" yesterday at BWI with 0.08" QPF and 1.2" of seasonal snowfall. There was 0.8" of snow at Reagan National in Washington bringing the seasonal total up to 0.9" and finally there was 3.0 inches of snow at Annapolis, Arnold, and Bowie, MD, which were our highest totals from Wednesday in Maryland. Now we watch and wait to see what Saturday and Saturday night brings us and what impact if any the coastal storm has on our weather Sunday. Right now the coastal impacts on Sunday look minimal from the stand point of snow, otherwise this would be a blockbuster snowstorm for the megalopolis. But that trend will continue to fine tune as well.

Jim
0 likes   

User avatar
Dawn In MD
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2004 1:32 pm

#2 Postby Dawn In MD » Thu Jan 20, 2005 3:37 pm

Hi Jim

Dawn in Harford Co here. Been looking for you, waiting for your post. Only 5 inches? Wishing for more.

Dawn
0 likes   

User avatar
adelphi_sky
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:12 pm
Location: Adelphi, MD

#3 Postby adelphi_sky » Thu Jan 20, 2005 3:55 pm

ugh!! Why do so many people differ? Anybody use weatherbug? Well, the forecast for Saturday is snow mixed with freezing rain? How with temps around 27 degrees? What are they looking at? Sleet, yes. Freezing rain, no way.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#4 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 20, 2005 3:56 pm

adelphi_sky wrote:ugh!! Why do so many people differ? Anybody use weatherbug? Well, the forecast for Saturday is snow mixed with freezing rain? How with temps around 27 degrees? What are they looking at? Sleet, yes. Freezing rain, no way.


You can have freezing rain at 15 degrees if conditions are right. All you need is for the cold air to be shallow and right at the surface.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
adelphi_sky
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:12 pm
Location: Adelphi, MD

#5 Postby adelphi_sky » Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:02 pm

That sucks. Makes the trees look pretty though. Like a winter wonderland until the branches start breaking and falling on your house. :(
0 likes   

IamMrBen
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:50 am
Location: McLean, Va

#6 Postby IamMrBen » Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:05 pm

The latest ETA continues to bump this system further north. I'm guessing this is why the forecast is calling for some freezing rain...? :?:
0 likes   

User avatar
jimvb
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:03 am
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Contact:

But snow also?

#7 Postby jimvb » Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:46 pm

Brent, you said that it can freezing rain at 15 degrees. That I can imagine. It's 15 at 0 feet and 55 at 1000 feet above the ground. but the forecast had called for "*snow* and freezing rain" at 27 degrees. Can it do that? If it does, then the upper layer must be right around 32 degrees, and unless the layer is really shallow, like mid-skyscraper height, it seems to me that the rain would freeze before it hits the ground and you would get snow and sleet instead.
0 likes   

BlizzardNole
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:24 pm
Location: Germantown, MD

#8 Postby BlizzardNole » Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:54 pm

Back during the horrible ice storm of 1994 in southern MD we had many hours of steady, liquid rain with an air temp of 18-21 degrees. That was one of the ugliest things I've ever seen. Some people didn't get their power back for two weeks!
0 likes   

andrewr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 366
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 9:34 pm
Location: SE King County, WA

#9 Postby andrewr » Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:58 pm

Up here in Washington State this weekend, it was 13F and FREEZING RAIN at one of our mountain passes.
0 likes   

ssom04
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 125
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:38 pm
Location: MankaTO MN

#10 Postby ssom04 » Thu Jan 20, 2005 6:06 pm

adelphi_sky wrote:ugh!! Why do so many people differ? Anybody use weatherbug? Well, the forecast for Saturday is snow mixed with freezing rain? How with temps around 27 degrees? What are they looking at? Sleet, yes. Freezing rain, no way.


Kinda sucks doesn't it? The last three systems here have been sleet and freezing rain with the temps around the low 20s upper teens. It all has to do what the temp is in the upper layers of the atmosphere like someone else stated b4 me
0 likes   

User avatar
adelphi_sky
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:12 pm
Location: Adelphi, MD

#11 Postby adelphi_sky » Thu Jan 20, 2005 6:08 pm

andrewr wrote:Up here in Washington State this weekend, it was 13F and FREEZING RAIN at one of our mountain passes.


Wow. The wonders of nature. It'd be nice if we could have a cross section graph of the temeratures at different layers in the atmosphere. Anybody ever seen one of those?
0 likes   

WXBUFFJIM
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1971
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Baltimore

#12 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:22 pm

Hopefully it won't be that bad in southern Maryland. ice is bad enough whether there's a quarter inch of ice or 1-2 inches of ice. I would prefer snow over ice anyday IMO.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: But snow also?

#13 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:39 pm

jimvb wrote:Brent, you said that it can freezing rain at 15 degrees. That I can imagine. It's 15 at 0 feet and 55 at 1000 feet above the ground. but the forecast had called for "*snow* and freezing rain" at 27 degrees. Can it do that? If it does, then the upper layer must be right around 32 degrees, and unless the layer is really shallow, like mid-skyscraper height, it seems to me that the rain would freeze before it hits the ground and you would get snow and sleet instead.


I'm not sure about that. I just know there was freezing rain at about 15 degrees in Washington State this past weekend. I was pretty shocked as well.
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#14 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:39 pm

WXBUFFJIM wrote:Hopefully it won't be that bad in southern Maryland. ice is bad enough whether there's a quarter inch of ice or 1-2 inches of ice. I would prefer snow over ice anyday IMO.


Everyone would. Ice sucks.
0 likes   
#neversummer

WXBUFFJIM
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1971
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Baltimore

#15 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:43 pm

Dawn In MD wrote:Hi Jim

Dawn in Harford Co here. Been looking for you, waiting for your post. Only 5 inches? Wishing for more.

Dawn


Hi Dawn. At least 5 inches of snow is possible and that I think is conservative. Some areas of northern Maryland will likely see a band of 6-12" of snow accumulation from midday Saturday through midday Sunday. If this coastal storm does develop and intensify closer to the coast, it could means even higher snow totals. But right now I'm going with a solutions that indicates 6-10 inches along the MD/PA border with isolated totals nearing a foot. I'm looking at 6-8 inches at BWI and down into Annapolis and Washington DC. Totals of 3-5 inches is possible in southern Maryland assuming snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain. Snow could linger in southern Maryland through Sunday morning and into early Sunday afternoon. So 3-5 inches in southern Maryland maybe somewhat conservative. Will see how this shakes out. At the very least this is expected to be the first significant snowstorm of the season and given how much snow we've seen this season, definitely deserved.

Take care and be prepared for this storm. It's certainly a storm I wouldn't take lightly.
Jim
0 likes   

stormman
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2004 8:54 pm

#16 Postby stormman » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:48 pm

what about for philly, specially pne? Do you think we have a shot at a foot?
0 likes   

BaltimoreGirl
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 190
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 7:22 pm
Location: Baltimore, MD

#17 Postby BaltimoreGirl » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:52 pm

Hi Jim!

This is not good news at all for me. I have a party scheduled for 2-4 on Saturday for 50 people. Wondering if I should just postpone now. This storm looks to be a certain, inevitable happening?
0 likes   

krysof

#18 Postby krysof » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:53 pm

:lol: Surre, Sorry but Philly will not get anywhere near a foot, nor will DC and NYC.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#19 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:53 pm

krysof wrote::lol: Surre, Sorry but Philly will not get anywhere near a foot, nor will DC and NYC.


Who are you? :roll:
0 likes   
#neversummer

krysof

#20 Postby krysof » Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:56 pm

What do you mean? Im Krysof, and I believe the models are showing nothing but a few inches.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests