Worldwide Tropical Update: 21 January 2005

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 21 January 2005 at 0000Z.

Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) (21/0000Z)
Position: 14.9S 42.6E (200 mi SW of Moroni, Comoros)
Movement: SW at 12 mph
Winds: 75 mph
Pressure: 976 mb / 28.82"
Dvorak Est: 4.0/4.0

TC Ernest has rapidly developed thanks to great outflow setting up. In addition, water temperatures have continued to increase. As upper-level divergence remains high and shear is low, continued to development is very likely. Expect Ernest to reach near 100mph in 24 hours. Currently, the forecast track has Ernest moving through the Mozambique Channel, but Mozambique and Madagascar should monitor the progress of this system.

Invest (91B) (21/0000Z)
Position: 4.5N 80.1E (150 mi WSW of Colombo, Sri Lanka)
Movement: **
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

The wave is under light to moderate shear, but on some developed convection persist throughout the wave, mainly on the northern half. This will be monitored for further development.

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 21 January 2005 at 1200Z.

Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) (21/1200Z)
Position: 17.0S 41.8E (370 mi NE of Chinde, Mozambique)
Movement: SSW at 13 mph
Winds: 85 mph
Pressure: 967 mb / 28.56"
Dvorak Est: 4.5/4.5

TC Ernest continues to deepen as great ventilation is occurring. Expect Ernest to rotate around the edge of the subtropical ridge and head toward southern Madagascar. Further intensification will occur as Ernest resides over warm waters. Expect 105 mph within 24 hours.

Invest (99S) (21/0600Z)
Position: 11.7S 111.1E (475 mi SE of Jakarta, Indonesia)
Movement: **
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

The wave is under light to moderate shear, but on some developed convection persist throughout the wave. This will be monitored for further development.

Invest (91B) (21/0000Z)
Position: 4.5N 80.1E (185 mi NNE of Colombo, Sri Lanka)
Movement: **
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

The wave is under light to moderate shear, but on some developed convection persist throughout the wave, mainly on the northern half. This will be monitored for further development.