Take a look at the 0z Eta model, WOW!

krysof · #1 Postby **krysof** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:40 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

SnowGod · #2 Postby **SnowGod** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:44 pm

Looks like a Gardon variety SECL to me. I bet your getting all happy over the 48hr over the top precip amounts around the Jersey area, remember what model this is and also know that isn't all snow.

krysof · #3 Postby **krysof** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:46 pm

yeah, if only the storm wasn't such a fast mover.

krysof · #4 Postby **krysof** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:46 pm

it is all snow, northcentral new jersey, temperatures near 20 degrees.

Website · #5 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:48 pm

Nice snow where I'll be. 8-)

SnowGod · #6 Postby **SnowGod** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:49 pm

Trust me, if the GFS had the same exact track and setup, its Quad amounts would be a good deal lower. The ETA has a problem controlling itself at the point of circulation which causes Quad runaway train so to speak with these types of systems. Those amounts it shows from 48-54 hrs are not realistic IMO. Much better model compared to the GFS, which is atrocious, but that one bias can give people the hype for a big letdown.

krysof · #7 Postby **krysof** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:52 pm

When the gfs shows something good for my area, I get excited even though I know the gfs is uugh, upsetting and a bad model. Sometimes when people want something, they will take any hope they could get.

W13 · #8 Postby **W13** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:46 pm

Remember these key facts when looking at the ETA and GFS Models:

ETA - Wet Bias
GFS - Dry Bias

So basically, expect a bit more than what the GFS is displaying and expect a bit less with the ETA.

Steve H. · #9 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 11:46 am

12Z Canadien looking better also...starts to bomb it near the DelMarva, then brings it just inside the benchmark 8-)

Damn, wish I was on LI for this!!!

SnowGod · #10 Postby **SnowGod** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:16 pm

The differences between the 12z ETA and 12z GFS are so important it is amazing as this juncture. Some support for the ETA's track, though the storm is a very fast mover and other models aren't near to its Quad. It is actually a MECS miss IMO. If it would have developed farther south as expected 3 days ago.................

Steve H. · #11 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:27 pm

ome of the guidance is slowing the storm down some near the bench mark. 12Z uk slows it quite a bit. This is a trend that has shown up during the past 24 hours. This MAY prolong the heavy snows. Let's see what 0z brings. 8-)

Take a look at the 0z Eta model, WOW!

Take a look at the 0z Eta model, WOW!

Whats so impressive?

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