WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON

[WXBUFFJIM]

Winter storm warning has been hoisted for the BWI and DCA and IAD areas. Everything remains on track with modt to heavy snow north of a line from DC to Annapolis and Dover. Anywhere south of that line will see moderate to heavy snow followed by mixed precipitation Saturday afternoon and evening, trhen a change over back to wind driven snow Saturday night/early Sunday morning. I suspect given some impact from the coastal storm that 8-12" will fall in Baltimore and also into York, PA while 6-8" falls in Washington and less snow with 2-5" in Fredricksburg and St Marys City as a mixture occurs there. Below is the statement from NWS.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
209 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-220400-
ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV-
CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA-
FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD-
HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA-
MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-
209 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING.

A WINTER STORM DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE HIGHLANDS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN MARYLAND AROUND 5 TO 7 AM. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST AND WILL
MOVE OVER CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BETWEEN 7 TO 10 AM.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING BETWEEN 7 AND 11 PM. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE
ENDING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S DURING THE
EVENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY...THEN WILL BECOME NORTH
DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND BY SUNDAY MORNING THEY WILL BE 25 MILES AN HOUR GUSTING
TO 40 MPH. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY IN THE 20S AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO.

THERE ARE TWO OTHER POINTS OF INTEREST. FIRST...FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND...BASICALLY FROM STAUNTON THROUGH
CHARLOTTESVILLE AND FREDERICKSBURG...TO PRINCE FREDERICK...THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE IN THE EVENT. AFTER
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT AND THE MAIN THREAT
IN THAT AREA IS THE SNOWFALL.

SECOND...IS A COASTAL STORM THAT WILL FORM OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT STORM MAY SPREAD A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MARYLAND BEFORE MOVING AWAY. HOWEVER...THIS SECOND PERIOD
OF SNOW IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS EARLY STAGE. ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE A
FEW INCHES MORE IN THAT AREA IF THIS OCCURS.

THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. STAY ALERT FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANY CHANGE IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
BRING MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH WOULD PRODUCE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
STRONG/ALLEN/SMITH/LEE

[Lowpressure]

You are too quick. I just saw that and it came out at 1406. Way to keep on top of things. We are ready here in D.C. Living in Fredericksburg, I need to pay attention to the ice scenario. I know they said snow would be the biggest threat, but it does not take much ice. WX, what is your gut on the coastal low? Will it be only an eastern MD hit?

[WXBUFFJIM]

Eastern central Maryland and northeast Maryland seems to be the best targeted area for wrap around snow Sunday morning from the coastal. If this does happen, that 4-8" the weather service is saying for Baltimore could be 8-12" and that's right in line with my thinking. There could be 2-5" in fredrickburg during the afternoon Saturday before a mixture Saturday evening of frez rain, sleet, and snow, then possibly an additional inch or two after that late Saturday night. The key aspect in fredricksburg is snow, not major icing. Will keep an eye on this.

Jim

[spf]

Jim - thanks for your posts. What is your call for the Northern Va DC suburbs (Fairfax, Loudoun counties)?

[Hokie1]

Jim - thanks for your posts. What is your call for the Northern Va DC suburbs (Fairfax, Loudoun counties)?

I too am curious about this region, as I live in Reston, VA. I'm hoping we're more inline with the 8-12" forecast.

[Anonymous]

I must admit, I'm beginning to feel like a first-class dork, running off at the mouth with my 2 to 5 inch snow fcst with mixing over the past day or so on two weather BBs. I'll STFU.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I'm looking at a possible 6-8" of snow in northern Virginia and into Washington DC, Quantico could see 3-6" and Fredricksburg about 3-6" total as well.

[adelphi_sky]

I still want 12" I'm between DCA and BWI. Northern tip of PG county to be exact. 20 minutes from BWI.

[Lowpressure]

I'm looking at a possible 6-8" of snow in northern Virginia and into Washington DC, Quantico could see 3-6" and Fredricksburg about 3-6" total as well.

Will keep everyone as informed as possible this weekend IRT winter weather.

Jebwalk is a coming!!

[SnowGod]

I would say around 6 inches then some ice for DC, maybe a bit more in Baltimore and less ice.