Winter Wx for St. Louis?

[madscientist]

Yet again, St. Louis will dodge the heavy snowfalls, which have occurred either too far north, or too far south. It will definitely be cold enough, but the significant snows will occur to our north.

The temperature has been at or below freezing since about 4 AM here. Even without the significant snow, there does seem to be the likelihood of freezing rain in the area, although it will be pretty light. But that should be enough to cause headaches before changing to light snow, where about an inch is to be expected.

Oh well. At least we received three light snowfalls this month.

[sertorius]

Madscientist:

The models are really beginning to show an active pattern for the area Salina-St. Louis beginning end of next week. As of this morning, the gfs, euro, gem and mrf are showing the southern jet really kicking up by the end of next week and temp.s look to be normal to just below. Don't give up yet-we may see some rain, but it really looks like we will see a good snow in the next 2 weeks-One that may dump from central Kansas to Saint Louis!! Time will tell.

[madscientist]

Madscientist:

The models are really beginning to show an active pattern for the area Salina-St. Louis beginning end of next week. As of this morning, the gfs, euro, gem and mrf are showing the southern jet really kicking up by the end of next week and temp.s look to be normal to just below. Don't give up yet-we may see some rain, but it really looks like we will see a good snow in the next 2 weeks-One that may dump from central Kansas to Saint Louis!! Time will tell.

Hope so. I hope that everyone gets a good dumping. I'll keep the faith until April.

[SnowGod]

As Bastardi would say, there are Ducks on the pond for next weekend, but I am not sure if they want to come together or not.

[sertorius]

snowgod:

I totally agree-the details still have along ways to go-however, as unreliable as the gfs past 72 hours, it can show trends. The gfs has been showing an active southern jet for about 5 days now on every run. (As has the euro and gem-my euro site that I pay for has not intialized the last 2 runs so I have not seen it-it prob. calls for zonal and temps. in the 50's and I'm just squaking!!) To be sure, the details change each time: colder, warmer, more precip, less precip, but it has been showing the storms for the whole time. I think for now, as much as I get freaked at each run of the gfs, that we can bank on the fact that after next Wednesday, the area from say Western Kansas East thru Missouri and the Northern plains, are going to be in for some active weather. How it falls-liquid-frozen-who knows. But, my area has its best shot at pretty good snow comming up than it has in about 6 weeks. Living in weather variable central, that is all I can ask. We have to have the southern Jet firing up to get a good snow here and it has been years since a storm came out of the 4 corners and put down a swath of snow from Goodland kansas to Saint Louis-we are due for that. The pattern is shaping up to at least give that scenario a shot!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Ahhhhhhh. Got to love those St. Louis Bust storms. I'm disppointed, but it was expected. I also agree with you all about Feburary and so does my mother, she very good at long range forecasting about 80-90 percent of the time. She has unfortunely may auto immune disorders, about won't go into detail with that. But the positive of her diseases is that it allows her to forecast big storms upto a few days in advance, and her great knowledge of living in chicago when she was young also helps her with forecasting here, based on natural signs. She doesn't like computer models and says that they are a bunch of non-sense and maybe she's right, but I can complain with her forecasting accuracy!! I think between Feburary 1-6 St. Louis, MO and much of the corn belt states will get a good 6-12 inches just in the first two weeks in Feburary. So if that holds it will more than make up for all those storms that have missed us here in good olde Saint Louis.

[sertorius]

Gothpunk-IL-WX:

I agree with you-I hope your mother is doing ok!! The details have a long ways to go-I mean last Sunday, the forecast based on the euro was for a high of 55-60 for here tomorrow-will prob. see my high temp. tonight at midnight and going down to single digits tomorrow night!! I really think Kansas City, in the next two weeks, will see a snow storm. We are due-besides the cold and one ice event, this has ben a bland winter-of course many winters are here and not because of changing weather-climatology shows amny Jan. and Feb. with more temps. in the 50's than the teens!!!

[simplykristi]

I agree... Winter here in KC is boring. I just want one huge snowstorm.

Kristi

[JenyEliza]

Yet again, St. Louis will dodge the heavy snowfalls, which have occurred either too far north, or too far south. It will definitely be cold enough, but the significant snows will occur to our north.

The temperature has been at or below freezing since about 4 AM here. Even without the significant snow, there does seem to be the likelihood of freezing rain in the area, although it will be pretty light. But that should be enough to cause headaches before changing to light snow, where about an inch is to be expected.

Oh well. At least we received three light snowfalls this month.

At least you've had some snow falls. We haven't had any. The last accumulating snow the Atlanta area has seen was in January 2003, and that wasn't much (a dusting...not even enough to shut us down--and it doesn't take much to shut down Atlanta in winter weather).

Jeny

[SnowGod]

I gotta think the Midwest is due for a major phasing event around early February. Of course, you could live in Eastern Ohio and miss the Pre-Christmas snowstorm, then the January 6th snow/ice storm and finally we miss(though will pick up a good 6 inches probably ) this snowstorm.

I am still paying for the February 2003 storm.

[sertorius]

snowgod:
Our biggest snow in 15 years was the 8 inch freak of nature gone in 24 hours snow we had this past November. We got one 7 incher last year but that has been it. This area is due for a good snow storm. The new run of the gfs is comming out now but to be honest, by looking at the euro, I'm not sure if I buy the gfs previous runs. I would not be surprised if the 0z tonight has big changes, for the worse if you like snow, in it. Still worth discussing-but I do agree with you-if the gfs is hinting right, this is the best set up for a good central plains snow that we have seen in a while.