18Z ETA run continues a strengthening trend

[nin9inch9nails]

The 18Z model run data continues the last 2 model run trends of intensification and also slightly slowing the system down. At 500 mb SW is stronger and has more concentrated vorticity by 12Z Saturday.

By 18Z Saturday the surface low is 4mb stronger than the previous run and centered over the WV panhandle.

The axis of maximum precipitation has shifted slightly north and the shield in general has not only intensified but also expanded.

FOUS precip output for Pittsburgh has increased. From .75 to .86 inches for the event and given an expected 15:1 ratio would now imply 13 inches of snow.

This is going to be fun!

[SnowGod]

Also turns DC and Southeastern Jersey into rain. I don't buy this run. It overphases to soon. 18z's have trouble intializing sometimes. No other model, even the UKMET was this phased at the coast.

[nin9inch9nails]

Also turns DC and Southeastern Jersey into rain. I don't buy this run. It overphases to soon. 18z's have trouble intializing sometimes. No other model, even the UKMET was this phased at the coast

Right or wrong the reason for the more rapid phasing is the consolidation of vorticity from the prior run.

[SnowGod]

Per ETA. The Models didn't phase to further out to sea, now they are just phasing faster and faster. If the ETA's trend is right, the low over Eastern Ohio/Western PA may deepen down to 996mb's and the Coastal low down to 981-84 mb's VERY close to the coast . This was my first hypothesis last Tuesday.

I am not trying to underplay the phasing, I am in East Central Ohio and the more it phases a better storm for me, but the more it phases, are friends in the I-95 corridor lose the snow and get more Ice or even Rain which of course the storm loses all importance then .

We will have to see tonight.