Blizzard Likely in Parts of Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

[donsutherland1]

A monstrous, crippling blizzard...attacked the New York metropolitan region and much of the East yesterday [January 7, 1996] with blinding snow..."
--A description of the Blizzard of 1996 in Robert D. McFadden, "Coastal Blizzard Paralyzes New York and Northeast," The New York Times, January 8, 1996, p.A1.

The latest model guidance (12z and 18z) has strongly converged around the idea that the significant snowfall highlighted in various model runs is likely to pan out. Therefore, the Great Lakes Region to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be receiving a major snowstorm this weekend. A full-fledged blizzard is likely in coastal areas such as Long Island, the Connecticut shore, and Cape Cod. Blizzard conditions may also occur across central and northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts. The big cities including New York, Providence, and Boston could experience blizzard conditions.

My estimated accumulations are as follows:

Babylon: 16"-24"
Baltimore: 8"-14"
Boston: 12"-20"
Danbury: 8"-16"
Chicago: 8"-16"
Cleveland: 6"-10"
Columbus: 4"-8"
Detroit: 6"-10"
New York City: 12"-20"
Newark: 14"-20"
Philadelphia: 12"-18"
Pittsburgh: 6"-10"
Providence: 16"-24"
Richmond: 1"-2"
Washington, DC: 4"-8"
White Plains: 12"-18"

Record Daily Snowfalls for Select Cities:
January 22:
Boston: 5.3", 1987
New York City: 8.1", 1987
Newark: 11.0", 1987
Providence: 5.5", 1987

January 23:
Boston: 12.4", 1935
New York City: 12.8", 1935
Newark: 2.8", 1982
Providence: 8.0", 1965

[cycloneye]

Don as always great stuff with your anaylisis and this one has to be at sticky due to the important information at this thread and I did that.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Luis. I forgot that I could sticky posted messages. I'll be sure to get some photos of the storm and e-mail Chad. Also, I'll upload a number to my site.

[cycloneye]

Don I have a question about intensity.Do you think that still there may be some fluctuations up or down on the storm?

[Dave C]

Se Mass could definately be in the bullseye for this one. All local forecasters as well as NWS going 10-20inch range with ocean enhancement a wildcard that could put some coastal areas over 20 inches. Even the darn GFS trying to come closer to other model progs. Sounds like an "all nighter" for me Sat nite, anyone else ready to pound down the coffee!

[donsutherland1]

I beliee this is possible. Convective snows could occur in places and a deformation zone might set up. It's difficult to pinpoint those areas but there is room for fluctuation.

[donsutherland1]

Enjoy the storm, Dave. Stay safe, as well, if you're going outdoors.

[krysof]

We are expecting at least a foot to 16 inches or more. The the low stalls out, than we are talking about phenamenial snowfall totals and if the secondary low has heavy wrap around snows, then it will be one for the record books. Well it's winter, even if it was very warm for two weeks, this was coming one way or another. If the low stalls out and heavy wrap around snows follow with the secondary low on sunday, than we are talking nearly 2 feet for nyc, new jersey, and maybe over 2ft for Southern MA and eastern long island. It could happen.

[SnowGod]

Buying fully in the ETA Don? Beware.............................

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the updates and I'm very much looking forward to monitoring this upcoming MECS, possibly HECS.

[donsutherland1]

SnowGod,

I'm definitely not buying the 18z ETA at face value. I have weighed it along with some of the other guidance including the 18z GFS which is more tempered. The 18z ETA's QPF is too high for many places but I believe a reasonable compromise can be gleaned when one considers the ECMWF, ETA, and GFS guidance. Trends might dictate more of a weight to the ETA but on the flip side, more weight to the ETA might lead to a warmer situation, more precipitation-type issues, etc.

One factor pointing to heavier snows along coastal New England and Long Island is the explosive deepening that is likely in the secondary storm. This should lead to some areas receiving convective snows and the ETA has done well in some cases in highlighting areas at risk for those snows. A deformation band could also enhance snowfall totals in some areas.

[Chris the Weather Man]

16-20" my call for NE NJ, Essex County.

[Rainband]

16-20" my call for NE NJ, Essex County.

I lived in Irvington till I was 11

[Stephanie]

I saw one report that I could see 10 - 14 inches of snow and perhaps blizzard conditions.

My nutty significant other, Marty, is supposed be going to NYC tomorrow for the annual motorcycle show at Javitz center with the rest of his motorcycle club. They're still planning on going - one of the members owns his own tour bus company, so they are using one of his buses. They're leaving at 9 am. I'm afraid I won't be seeing him until Sunday.

[Ed Spacer]

I believe it will be a mega storm.At least two feet.

[vbhoutex]

I believe it will be a mega storm.At least two feet.

Could you be more specific as to location(s) of this amount of snow plese?

[Stephanie]

I believe it will be a mega storm.At least two feet.

We've seen storms like these in recent years EXPLODE to a foot and a half and two feet in no time. Just look at how the totals grew today alone!

[Ed Spacer]

I believe it will be a mega storm.At least two feet.

Could you be more specific as to location(s) of this amount of snow plese?

Absolutely.You could create a cresent shape backwards that goes from the DELMARVA up around the NJ coastline,to NY/LIS,and ending at connecticut.This area I believe is a convergence and convective area.The high to the north is so strong that it is almost a perfect forecast path. In this are,I foresee 2-3" feet of snow,and directly south a severe icing event.The even bigger issue is going to be the beach erosion and wind damage, as this is likely to be a "closed ended" low,and mimic the characteristics of the 1978 storm that hit Newe England.I remember that one,too.It was a decent sized low that blew up into a virtual winter hurricane,and previously before that,there had been an extremely mild stretch as well.

[Ed Spacer]

This is again like the 1978 snowstorm.Four feet of snow.Formed almost exactly the same way.The cold air dome is going NOWHERE.Even if at 3000 ft it is above freezing,the cold air settled in on us is going nowhere. This is going to actually hold the storm south of the original track,and actually provide the secondary low (closed low) more convective circulation and enhance the snowfall rates.I see 2-3 feet easily.


The cold air is as strong as the lows circulation,so the battle line,as for what i can see,is moving no place.

[Ed Spacer]

It is a balmy 8 degrees here in Middletown,DE. I do not see any areas going above freezing during the eevnt any further north than the Salisbury,MD aerea, as I feel the storm will take a bit more southerly track due to the strength of the cold air dome from the high. I do not even forsee the temperature in the big cities exceeding the upper teens or low 20s,but,if the warm air continues to shelf itself over the lower level air mass, this could be a massive significant icing event for areas like Baltimore/DC,south to turn back to snow at the wrap-around,but I do not even see that changeover take place until you get 30/50 miles or so south of that.


I see a damaging significant wind and ocean event from this as well.