12z GFS Ensembles

[aggiecutter]

look very wintry for the southern plains and the east in day 9 and beyond. The model has been trending this way for the past week, and has good support from the CFS and analogs from past weak El-Nino winters.

192-276hrs

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12212.html

288-372hrs

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12212.html

[sertorius]

aggiecutter:

I've been following this now for about 4 days. Both the 12z gfs and the 0z euro are showing colder temps. in the central plains by Thursday. It also looks as though the southern stream will get active beginning next Friday-the euro, gfs and gem show this. I really believe the Lawrence/Kansas City has its best chance for a snow storm in the next 2 weeks as it has all winter. The 0z and 12z gfs is much more consitent with each other with the 06z and 18z flopping back and forth. The 0z and 12 gfs have been consitent with the idea of a couple storms comming thru the southern stream. Only time well tell, but it really does look like areas from South Dakota thru Texas will get much stormier beginning next weekend. Of course, Monday-Wednesday will be shorts weather-today it is 12 degrees with a 20-25 MPH North wind under full sun!!!

[jeff]

I was holding off on saying anything, as the current focus is on the E coast (10mb pressure drop in 2 hours off the DELMARVA).

However, the GFS has been forecasting cold with precip. for the last 3 runs now over the S plains early in FEB. Could be some snow with this as it appears a strong low wraps up over TX and very slowly tracks into the lower MS valley.

Still waiting on the 18Z GFS run to see if it continues the trend

Plenty of time to watch. Stay tuned.

[sertorius]

Jeff:

Thanks for the post-I was thinking things could get a bit interesting after Wednesday next week. I really do enjoy reading your thoughts and have learned a great deal from them!! That is one whale of a strom in the east!!!!

[southerngale]

Great! Hey Corpus, Brownsville, Victoria...it's my turn for some snow this time.

I echo the comments by sertorius regarding Jeff.

[jeff]

Jeff:

Thanks for the post-I was thinking things could get a bit interesting after Wednesday next week. I really do enjoy reading your thoughts and have learned a great deal from them!! That is one whale of a strom in the east!!!!

GFS is showing 1008 surface low forming in the TX panhandle next Sat (29th) and then moving ENE to SE KS by next Sun (30th). 540 thickness is cutting KS in half after the passage of the surface low with a good deal of wrap around moisture. It will be warm prior to the lows passage with a good southerly flow off the Gulf.

Appears the wrap around will be frozen or at least a sleet/snow mix over a good part of KS by late Sun (30th). Exact track of the surface low and position of frontal features will determine P-type and any amounts. It looks good for some snow though over most of KS.


Note: could be some severe weather this weekend south of the surface low over the S plains if capping and moisture cooperate.

[sertorius]

Jeff:

Thanks for the reply to my post-I know you are busy!! The gfs has the 0 850 line real close to my area on the 18z run for sure-I am always dealing with those issues!! To me, that screams ice for a while untill the snow comes-of course if the low tracks 50 miles north, I could be in all rain and flurries!! I will be interested to see the euro-I can not get access to Sunday's 850 temps. etc. but the 240 hr. shows a pretty good low in the south west again. The gfs has had this storm for almost 5 days now and has had pretty close to the same track-it has shifted back and forth North and South, but the idea has been there. The 18z also gives me a chance at some lt. snow on Saturday and both the 12z euro, 12z gfs, and 18z gfs are much bolder with the cold air beginning Wednesday. At least there is something to watch for the next week-10 days!!! Thanks again-I'm sure I'll keep babling in the Lawrence/Kansas City thread!!!