Pacific Northwest Weather
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Today is shaping up to be an okay day! With the rainshadow, it's breezy, mild and dry. Actually, it hasn't rained too much since Tuesday. This weekend may be okay. Just talked to my aunt who lives in Brooklyn, NY and they currently have heavy snow with 3 inches already on the ground. She said you could hardly see outside it was snowing so hard. Man, it's these kind of "blah" days that really make you want snow!!
Anthony
Currently 57 F with breezy, dry conditions.
Anthony
Currently 57 F with breezy, dry conditions.
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- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 94
- Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:24 am
- Location: Bellingham, Washington
Hey R-Dub, Nice pick up on the 1996 deal.
Hey can any of you remember somebody from the farmers almanac predicting a major snowstorm, possibly breaking records in the Northeast between January 18th and 23rd? I am pretty sure it was that Indiana Jones Character that said that. Well, it looks to me like he deserves some credit because it is the 22nd and the Northeast is going to get slammed with record snowfall.
For us, I predict we'll get our turn at this between February 5th-15th. I know its a wide range but I am sticking with it... That will be our dead heat of winter.
Hey can any of you remember somebody from the farmers almanac predicting a major snowstorm, possibly breaking records in the Northeast between January 18th and 23rd? I am pretty sure it was that Indiana Jones Character that said that. Well, it looks to me like he deserves some credit because it is the 22nd and the Northeast is going to get slammed with record snowfall.
For us, I predict we'll get our turn at this between February 5th-15th. I know its a wide range but I am sticking with it... That will be our dead heat of winter.
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Also don't forget that if you look at the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks on the weekend, that those are fully model generated. No human input like during the weekday. Today it shows normal temps for 6-10day and above normal temps on the 8-14 day. Yet yesterday with human input they had below normal temps for 8-14 day period. So don't read anything into the weekend CPC forecasts!!!!
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I'm kind of with TT on this one. It seems everyone here agrees with the models and forecasts when it shows cold air, but then when it shows warm they are all of a sudden wrong and can't be trusted. I like snow as much as anyone else does, but the odds are always against snow in the lowlands and this winter has showed it as much as any other. There's nothing wrong with hoping for snow, but be realistic. We can't even get snow at 8500 feet right now and are having record breaking high temperatures. Sure it can always get cold again, but it seems less likely that it would happen now compared to 30 years ago. So trying to find similar patterns in a time when cold air was more likely is almost futile. That's just my 2 cents and I'm sure many will disagree (except for TT that is).
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- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
Well the models a few weeks ago were not completely wrong, they were right as far as the general pattern, but wrong as far as the specifics of the cold weather.
SnowWizzard, thanks for the info about future winters. I am familiar with the PDO, I remember a few years ago some articles written about how they thought we were already entering a negative phase of the PDO, but apparantly they were a bit premature.
SnowWizzard, thanks for the info about future winters. I am familiar with the PDO, I remember a few years ago some articles written about how they thought we were already entering a negative phase of the PDO, but apparantly they were a bit premature.
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Well the rain shadow has filled in, at least in my area......
1/22/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:22:06 PM CURRENT
Rain
Temperature (ºF) 52.7
Humidity (%) 93.0
Wind (mph) ESE 12.0
Daily Rain (") 0.06
Pressure ("Hg) 29.99
Dew Point: 50.8 ºF
Snowwiz....looks like one by one people are going to TT's side saying winter is over, NOT ME THOUGH!!!!
I have a great feeling about Feb.
1/22/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:22:06 PM CURRENT
Rain
Temperature (ºF) 52.7
Humidity (%) 93.0
Wind (mph) ESE 12.0
Daily Rain (") 0.06
Pressure ("Hg) 29.99
Dew Point: 50.8 ºF
Snowwiz....looks like one by one people are going to TT's side saying winter is over, NOT ME THOUGH!!!!

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I have not followed the models long enough to know when they get things right or wrong, but my guess from what I've seen is that they get the overall picture right. Whether that be a trough in the West and a ridge in the East. Details always seem to be off, such as with our snow and cold, but it was cooler here and warmer in the East as they predicted. Now they are hinting at a rebuilding ridge in the West and a trough in the East. Yes it is still a ways out, but it simply can not be ignored and said that we will have an arctic outbreak. This picture is pretty self explanitory:


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Yep... I was just going to write and say that the 18Z run of the GFS has one massive ridge over the west coast in early February.
I cannot be ignored. If it showed snow and cold you guys would be screaming with excitement. But if it shows unseasonable warmth you guys say its just plain wrong.
It has been very consistent in showing some kind of ridge over us in early February (and beyond). This pattern is here to stay. I think until spring officially arrives.
Any chance of winter returning is fading fast with each passing day. If you guys do not accept this then you are just going to be that much more disappointed. Time to accept reality.
I cannot be ignored. If it showed snow and cold you guys would be screaming with excitement. But if it shows unseasonable warmth you guys say its just plain wrong.
It has been very consistent in showing some kind of ridge over us in early February (and beyond). This pattern is here to stay. I think until spring officially arrives.
Any chance of winter returning is fading fast with each passing day. If you guys do not accept this then you are just going to be that much more disappointed. Time to accept reality.
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- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
There is certainly no sign of cold air, but it is asinine to say that this pattern will last for the next two months, since winter can go on into March. I remember the first day of Spring a few years ago and there was a foot of snow in Bellingham. True it was short lived, and the later in winter the harder it is to get cold weather, but to write it off this soon is premature. I would not bet in getting cold weather though, but wouldnt bet against it either.
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Just to remind everyone, there are 55 days, or 8 weeks left in winter and we are only 33 days, or 5 weeks into winter. We are not even to the half way mark!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh and Tim, I am way past being dissapointed if winters don't turn out cold and snowy, living in Western WA for 28yrs, or all my life I have had no choice but exept being dissapointed
When I can count on one hand the yrs where I wasn't let down.
1985/86
1988/89
1990/91
1992/93
1995/96
1996/97
Okay maybe two hands
I was certainly not disapointed those winters!!

Oh and Tim, I am way past being dissapointed if winters don't turn out cold and snowy, living in Western WA for 28yrs, or all my life I have had no choice but exept being dissapointed


1985/86
1988/89
1990/91
1992/93
1995/96
1996/97
Okay maybe two hands

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It's hard to ignore that tremendous ridge over the entire west coast. But I still find it hard to believe such an amplified ridge can set up right along the west coast...but I'm not saying it can't happen...it's probably happened before. In any event, not a bad day today!! Mostly cloudy...a few sprinkles...very mild...a little breezy...feels like the middle of April. A pineapple express took shape, but it's over the open ocean. The baroclinic band set up too far west to majorly affect Western Washington...thus, we should not experience any flooding from this event...aside from the Washington coast and maybe north Cascades. Just checked in with my aunt and they have 7 inches of snow...and still snowing heavily. Local meteorologists are still calling for 20+ inches with wind gusts of 55 mph. Perfect weather if you ask me!! lol.
Anthony
Anthony
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Lets all take a trip to your aunts Anthony
Oh to see that much snow again
We have been in and out of the rainshadow here at LK Goodwin all day. Its currently raining again with a temp of 52 degrees.
And I should say I am really not too upset about winter around here so far this yr. Other then the mountain snow pack issue. The last cold spell was the longest vacation from the golf course I have had due to cold temps 16 days, and I have worked there since 1998. So it was a good stretch of cold weather, and several small snow events, at least up here. Winter of '02-'03 I had one day off due to winter weather! That winter was BAD for lowland winter weather!


We have been in and out of the rainshadow here at LK Goodwin all day. Its currently raining again with a temp of 52 degrees.
And I should say I am really not too upset about winter around here so far this yr. Other then the mountain snow pack issue. The last cold spell was the longest vacation from the golf course I have had due to cold temps 16 days, and I have worked there since 1998. So it was a good stretch of cold weather, and several small snow events, at least up here. Winter of '02-'03 I had one day off due to winter weather! That winter was BAD for lowland winter weather!
Last edited by R-Dub on Sat Jan 22, 2005 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter 2002-2003 was miserable for the lowlands...but not terrible for the mountains. October and November were UNBELIEVABLY dry, but the last few weeks of December helped the mountains tremendously. We were under a zonal flow that brought abundant snow to the cascades. January was fairly wet and great for the mountains, but February was once again very dry and mild. We had one "threat" of lowland snow March 1, but it never panned out. We had a rain/snow mix but nothing accumulated, and thus we had no accumulation of snow that entire winter. But the mountains were better off...esp. compared to this year. You'd think with the lack of snowpack in the mountains we've been having a dry/warm winter, but that's not the case. We've had many extremes thus far...a few pineapple expresses, a few bouts of "arctic" air and some minor windstorms...a potential major one that never panned out. So at least this winter's been more exciting than 2002-2003...that winter just plainly sucked!!
Anthony
Anthony
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