SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 22.9S3 42.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 42.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 25.5S2 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 28.2S2 46.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 31.6S0 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 35.7S5 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 42.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
350 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE CLOUD
DENSE COVER HAS CLOSED OVER THE EYE, HOWEVER, RECENT MICRO-
WAVE SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED EYE. TC 12S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS IT EXITS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 48, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO HAVE COMPLETED
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//
115 mph the maximun winds but in 48 hours it will make the transition to an extratropical system.
