Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Not a likely correlation.

The snowstorm that hit New York was January 6-8, 1996. Just a little more than a week later we were getting some snow.

I can see for 2 weeks out now and I know snow is not coming in that time. We may be lucky to get snow levels down to the resorts in 2 weeks.

The pattern was very different back then For example...that was a VERY dry winter in San Diego. Not like this year at all. That was a La Nina year unlike this year.

[andycottle]

Hey guys. Just now took a look at todays later runs of GFS...and the 12z has a HUGE ridge of high Pressure over much of the Western U.S..including the PNW from about the 5th - 7th. However, 18z still keeps the huge ridge over Western U.S, but shows a few showers over Washington and Rest of PNW during this time. So at any rate, this High may indeed take place as this in now the second night in a row that GFS has avertised this High.

-- Andy

[andrewr]

I don't think predicting by looking back and trying to match this year to previous years is a very reliable way of doing things because of climate change. I remember on the news at the beginning of January how a ski operator said that the late start in 89' was followed up by 220" of snow in January. Well, this year they lost snow. Not a great example, I know, but my point stands that it is different now then it was when things first started getting recorded (even different than it was 30 years ago). So even if a match year was found, there is definitely no guarantee it will continue to follow it because it's not the same climate. Our climate is probably not the only one to have changed, and this only makes things harder to forecast by making comparisons. Again, this is only my 2 cents.

EDIT: Please don't find my post discouraging. This can be as good as it is bad because eventually the climate will change towards cold and snowy. Rivers will freeze, the lowlands will have feet of snow all winter, and everyone will be whining for summer! (I hope this happens soon, but there is not enough detailed records to try and predict when it will happen)

[R-Dub]

That is how I predicted long term weather when I didn't have internet, or knew how to read computer models. And it seemed like more times then not, we would get nailed a few weeks after the east coast would. I would also look at Alaska temps, when it cold colder then normal there, a lot of times a few weeks after, it would move down to us. Also TT The arctic blast started around the 22nd here, so that is about 2 weeks after the east coast storm in 1996.
Winter is NOT over, just wait then enjoy!!!!!

[R-Dub]

Hey Anthony, looks like you are getting hammered with snow tonight!! Look at the "Everett Pic" thread on the fourm

Too bad its the wrong Everett

[AnthonyC]

It's always good to keep an optimistic attitude for lowland snow. Even though the models don't show any arctic air/snow in the forecast, we can still pray and hope something changes. But at any rate, the only person I can truly trust when it comes to predicting the weather realistically is TT-SEA. As much as I hate his negative look at snow, he's always accurate and correct. Even this weekend he was correct...while everyone was saying (including myself) a pineapple express, he was say a mostly dry Saturday with some light rain on Sunday. And look what happened! Very little rain today, and only light rain tomorrow. His accuracy still amazes me. In any event, keep the faith alive!!

Anthony

Currently 57 F with light rain. First rain of the day.

[AnthonyC]

If only it were Everett, Washington...I can dream though!!! lol.

[TT-SEA]

If you use Alaska... then we are really screwed.

It is in the low 30's in Anchorage and 0 degrees in Fairbanks (which is very warm for them in January).

The forecast for Alaska for the week is pretty mild... nothing extreme.

So even if by some MIRACLE the pattern changes without any sign from the computer models... we still won't get snow because there is no real arctic to invade Western Washington.

Checking on Alaska has removed even the slightest hope I had that you guys could be on to something. It was VERY cold in BC and even Eastern Washington last week and we still failed to get widespread snow even with strong outflow.

Now there is no cold air. Thats the final nail in the coffin of our winter season.

[andrewr]

When I mentioned that the climate was changing in other places in my last post, I was specifically thinking Alaska. Even they have warmed up over the decades so it changes past scenarios where we might have gotten cold air. A guy who lives in Alaska from a different message board mentioned that the permafrost is thawing and buildings are even starting to crumble because of this.

[TT-SEA]

What I really mean is... we do not have time to wait for the arctic air to build up again (and it won't be happening this week) and then for a perfect pattern to develop to bring it south.

If we had serious arctic air waiting up there right now I would have a little hope. But remember we are fighting the calendar now. It would most likely have to be in place or be developing this week for any hope this far south.

Regardless... every model shows some type of ridging over the west coast in 2 weeks so it would not matter. That is not condusive for bringing arctic air even if it existed.

We are spending all this time debating the patterns and there is no arctic air in Alaska in the first place. Comical.

[TT-SEA]

Good point Andrew. Climate change is most extreme the closer you move to the North and South poles.

That may very well be the reason we just cannot get a good arctic blast here in almost 10 years.

Some places... warmer means snowier. Not in Seattle.

We rely on outflow from REALLY cold air to our north and east. If that air is more moderate than our marine climate wins out more and more.

Interesting.

[AnthonyC]

You can say climate change or global warming, but I just don't buy it. I think we're in some sort of pattern that's not conduscive for cold/snow in the lowlands. I guess only time will tell. But I still have a feeling that within the next few years, Western Washington will experience more snow/cold weather. But will I still be here?! Probably not. I don't want to live in Seattle when I'm older. I'm thinking Colorado...there's a place with extreme weather conditions!!! lol.

[andrewr]

I also don't buy into Global Warming, but I do believe in cycles. Which is why I think that sometime it will swing the other way and we will get tons of cold and snow.

EDIT: This is probably how the whole Global Warming thing got started. Some scientist wasn't getting snow, got mad, and decided to blame it on people.

[R-Dub]

So Tim you are saying if we don't get arctic air in 2 weeks winter is over? Two weeks from now is the first week of Feb. Last time I checked the calender the first day of spring isn't until the 3rd week of March. First day of spring 2002 I had 10" of snow on the ground.

[Cumulonimbus]

Regarding the "pineapple express"-start watching the satellite loops and stop looking at the models. The result will be a much better and accurate forecast. You could see 2 things which began LAST MONDAY!

1. The ridge was building over the nw causing the precip to move north and west and then into Canada.

2. You could see the precip was NOT moving eastward into the state.

You don't even have to know anything about weather or the "models" and you could see a week ago that it was not going to get wet.
And now at 9PM tonight they say that until the cold front moves thru not even the Olympic Peninsula has much threat for flooding. My guess is that by Monday the front will split and come through as a weak cold front.

I now tell everyone I know that the latest motto from the NWS and TV forecasters seems to be:
The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!

Yup, I am one of the doubters on the board so I will no longer voice my concerns publicly to people here who are MUCH smarter and clairvoyant than I am.

[TT-SEA]

R-Dub... that much snow in Stanwood in late March is extremely rare. Not likely to be repeated.

Global warming is happening. It could well be a natural cycle but it is definitely happening regardless of the cause. The Earth is getting warmer.

That does not bode well for lowland snow or even for mountain snow overall.

We could still have a good winter some year. But I think they will be fewer and farther between than in the past. There are many signs of climate warming all over the world.

[andrewr]

Since everyone is so used to hearing about global warming, here is a site about something different regarding climate change: http://www.iceagenow.com

The guy lives in Washington State.

[andycottle]

While we can say that global warming has an affect on weather, me my self, I really think our weather here in the PNW depends on just how strong/weak the El~Nino & La~Nina`s are...which will give us warmer or MUCH colder weather during the winter. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Looking at tonights new run of the GFS...it now appears that in the long range, 5th - 7th...that BIG ridge of high pressure isn`t quite as strong as shown in the 12 and 18z models. 00z shows showers/moderate showers through that time for PNW and parts of the mid-upper inter Mountain West. Looks like a small trough may try and come through here on the evening of the 7th...with maybe a little snow for the Cascades as 500MB heights go down to around 528DM. Though for that day, 850MB temps show -3C with heights of 1410M. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

I am a bit encouraged by the 0z GFS. It shows no real cold anywhere in the country for the next two weeks, which bodes well for the development of cold in Alaska. As a rule it has to be cold either in Alaska, the west, or the east. If the entire continental US is mild, Alaska has to get cold. I do agree with the people who have been saying that a lack of cold in Alaska is what has screwed us this winter.

As for the correlation to 1996. There is some parallel. I remember that entire month very well. It was amazingly warm in our region and the east was getting nailed. I was telling everybody that we were going to get nailed within two weeks, and we did. At the time everyone though I was crazy. When the cold hit they were speeechless.

TT...You have certainly been lucky with your very conservative predctions so far, but when the big one comes I'll bet you are going to miss it totally.

For what it's worth...the Canadian T-150 control model does show us in a very cold pattern by day 10, but I am betting it will take longer than that.