PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR WINTER STORM JOSHUA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
ONTARIO CA
Monday, Jan 10, 2005 7:00 AM
DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...
SYNOPSIS....Winter Storm Joshua will be the weakest storm system out of all the named systems we saw this season.
...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...
PRE-STORM FACTS: High Clouds will not be the issue before the storm as Joshua is very weak.
THE RAIN CHANCES Small rain amounts from this system. Rain should start sometime after midnight on Wednesday morning. Shouldn't see any real heavy rains with this as VV's are less than 8, and moisture is considerably limited. A small cold front will drag, and weaken as it moves across the forecast area, ending by Wednesday Evening. This will not be a big storm at all.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES No Thunderstorms Forecasted
WIND CHANCES No High Winds Forecasted
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...Nothing on the storm scope, so continued Average Temps, and clearing skies after Joshua passes
TC
My Southern California Winter Storm Joshua Forecast Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
TC
TC,
It looks like this storm is getting more and more intense with each run of the GFS...look at the 54 hr of the 12Z GFS...looks pretty good for LA and especially OC coasts. The SD NWS has been revising the rain totals upward every day so far...so we shall see.
It looks like this storm is getting more and more intense with each run of the GFS...look at the 54 hr of the 12Z GFS...looks pretty good for LA and especially OC coasts. The SD NWS has been revising the rain totals upward every day so far...so we shall see.
0 likes
-
Tornado_Chaser2005
PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR WINTER STORM JOSHUA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
ONTARIO CA
Monday, Jan 24, 2005 7:00 PM
DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...
SYNOPSIS....Winter Storm Joshua will affect the forecast area on Wednesday, but we are already feeling some of it's effects now.
...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...
PRE-STORM FACTS: Scattered very light showers, and very cloudy skies before Joshua's arrival
THE RAIN CHANCES Joshua's rain chances of jumped up a lot since the last forecast. Analysis is showing really good values. Lower Levels will be saturated, with some Low Level wind from the South to give orthographic enhancements on the South facing areas of the Mountains, as well as the Santa Ana Mountains. Rain should be light Tuesday, with increasing intensity by Wednesday morning. The rain should come down hard, hard enough to even final the flooding chances. The major rain should end on Wednesday evening.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES Dynamics for Thunderstorms look marginal at this point, however more analysis good bump the chances up. For now, giving a slight chance of thunderstorms. The last storm systems gave high helicity levels for chances of Tornadoes, but Joshua's helicity levels are well below the limit for Tornadoes, so Tornadoes will not be a factor at all. The main chance for thunderstorms will be Wednesday morning, and ending evening on Wednesday night.
WIND CHANCES No really high winds in the forecast it seems, so a Wind warning will not be issued, nor is needed.
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...Nothing on the storm scope when Joshua passes, however the is a very good chance of VERY STRONG Santa Ana Winds early next week as analysis shows.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
Monday, Jan 24, 2005 7:00 PM
A flood Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area. Areas seeing over an inch of rain possible, with areas close to the mountains receiving 3-5 inches of rain. This watch starts Tuesday 10PM, and ends Wednesday Evening at 8PM-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
ONTARIO CA
Monday, Jan 24, 2005 7:00 PM
DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...
SYNOPSIS....Winter Storm Joshua will affect the forecast area on Wednesday, but we are already feeling some of it's effects now.
...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...
PRE-STORM FACTS: Scattered very light showers, and very cloudy skies before Joshua's arrival
THE RAIN CHANCES Joshua's rain chances of jumped up a lot since the last forecast. Analysis is showing really good values. Lower Levels will be saturated, with some Low Level wind from the South to give orthographic enhancements on the South facing areas of the Mountains, as well as the Santa Ana Mountains. Rain should be light Tuesday, with increasing intensity by Wednesday morning. The rain should come down hard, hard enough to even final the flooding chances. The major rain should end on Wednesday evening.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES Dynamics for Thunderstorms look marginal at this point, however more analysis good bump the chances up. For now, giving a slight chance of thunderstorms. The last storm systems gave high helicity levels for chances of Tornadoes, but Joshua's helicity levels are well below the limit for Tornadoes, so Tornadoes will not be a factor at all. The main chance for thunderstorms will be Wednesday morning, and ending evening on Wednesday night.
WIND CHANCES No really high winds in the forecast it seems, so a Wind warning will not be issued, nor is needed.
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...Nothing on the storm scope when Joshua passes, however the is a very good chance of VERY STRONG Santa Ana Winds early next week as analysis shows.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
Monday, Jan 24, 2005 7:00 PM
A flood Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area. Areas seeing over an inch of rain possible, with areas close to the mountains receiving 3-5 inches of rain. This watch starts Tuesday 10PM, and ends Wednesday Evening at 8PM-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests