Pacific Northwest Weather

[W13]

TT you better look at all those photos the east coasters have posted, because in Feb, or even March we will be white also!!!!

Also TT and Justin let me know when you get your tapes, and also let me know how you like them!

Will do! I hope they come today so that I can watch them all tonight.

[R-Dub]

MT Vernon is almost at 60 degrees at 9:30AM!!!
Its 53 degrees at my house now!

Well back to work

[TT-SEA]

I also feel like we have transitioned into a 1981 pattern. This warm spell is notable not only for its strength but also its length. The last really warm spell in January that lasted a LONG time was in 1981. By the end of January 1981... the mountains were almost bare. That has not happened since... until now.

The models show a cooler, wetter pattern for the first week of February much like 1981. Nothing to get excited about but cooler and with mountain snow.

That year we bottomed out on February 11th with a TINY bit of snow and we were back into the 60's by February 23rd.

This year we might be a little ahead of that schedule but I think other than a day or two... a warm spring is upon us.

Yes... I am calling late February and March spring despite the calendar. Some years they do not act like spring... but more often than not that is the start of spring in Seattle.

[R-Dub]

March can be sometimes better then Feb for winter weather! Looking at some old snow pics, we had about 4" in March of 1997, when we had nothing before that until you go back to the big Dec 1996 storm Almost every March we get at least a slushy snow, just when you think winter weather is over, it pops up again. Its almost frustrating at that point, because by then I am ready for spring, and going out and hitting the lake by jetskiing or something.

Okay I am leaving!!! My crew is probably missing me........Yeah right

[Brian_from_bellingham]

SnowWizzard, I hope you are right. Do you know how they get the PNA forecast? Is it directly tied into the GFS forecasts, or a seperate entity? I thought it was odd that some of the GFS runs showed cold while the PNA did not look very good for us. Seems like one of them has to be wrong. Hopefully the PNA forecast will be the one wrong.

[W13]

Current temperature is already up to 54 F. That is a 15 degree jump in 2.5 hours.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I still say that the next time the Madden-Julian Oscillation goes negative will be the acid test. If we do not get cold within a week to 10 days of when that happens I will be worried. According to the timing of the MJO this winter it should be negative by early Feb.

I will concede this may be yet another tremendously frustrating winter. If we don't see a good one soon, I will throw in towel and leave this miserable place. You have succeeded in discouraging me....along with this pathetic weather. You must admit there is a CHANCE we will still get cold. NOBODY knows for sure. This year is an odd ball.

Looking at those Palmer records you have to be aware that winter is far from over.

[W13]

Currently 57 F as of 12:42 PM ... today may break the warmest temperature we have had so far in the city of Kent this January (66 F).

[TT-SEA]

Alaska weather over the weekend... where is the arctic air???????



Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Bulletin
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AST Sun Jan 23 2005

Highest temperature last 12 hours. Lowest temperature last
24 hours. A "-" indicates temperatures below zero.
Precipitation for 24 hours ending at 3 PM AST.


.B PAFC 0123 Z DH00/TXK/TN/PPD/SD
:
: ID STATION HI LO PCPN SNOW
: DEPTH
PAFC : NWS ANCHORAGE : 33 / 29 / 0.00 / 2
PANT : ANNETTE : 49 / 43 / 0.89 /
PABR : BARROW AIRPORT : -2 / -7 / T / 9
PABE : BETHEL ASOS : 16 / 7 / 0.00 / 11
PABT : BETTLES : 12 / -5 / 0.00 / 33
PABV : BIRCHWOOD : 30 / 25 / M /
PACD : COLD BAY : 32 / 21 / 0.02 /
PACV : CORDOVA : 44 / 41 / 0.23 /
PADL : DILLINGHAM : 23 / 12 / M /
PADU : DUTCH HARBOR : 37 / 36 / M /
PAFA : FAIRBANKS AIRPORT : 6 / -9 / 0.00 /
PAGK : GULKANA : 15 / 1 / T /
PAHO : HOMER : 41 / 36 / 0.01 /
PAJN : JUNEAU : 36 / 29 / 0.00 / 14
PAEN : KENAI : 37 / 34 / 0.01 /
PAKN : KING SALMON AIRPORT : 28 / 20 / T /
PADQ : KODIAK : 40 / 36 / 0.07 /
PAOT : KOTZEBUE : 11 / 4 / T / 32
PAMC : MCGRATH : 5 / 0 / 0.00 / 37
PAOM : NOME : 11 / 6 / T /
PAOR : NORTHWAY AIRPORT : -2 / -13 / 0.00 / 12
PAAQ : PALMER : 35 / 30 / 0.00 /
PAPG : PETERSBURG : 37 / 34 / M /
PASN : SAINT PAUL ISLAND : 31 / 29 / T /
PAWD : SEWARD : 37 / 33 / 0.56 /
PASI : SITKA : 39 / 33 / 0.21 /
PATK : TALKEETNA : 36 / 32 / 0.00 /
PAVW : VALDEZ : 35 / 33 / 0.11 / 42
WSLA2 : WASILLA RAWS : 36 / 33 / M /
PAWR : WHITTIER : 40 / 36 / M / 9
PAYA : YAKUTAT : 42 / 33 / 0.40 /
:
: Alaska Temperature Extremes.
: Highest Temperature Last 12 Hours.
: 50 at Metlakatla
: Lowest Temperature Last 24 Hours.
: -13 at Northway

[TT-SEA]

Leave Seattle??

We have a BEAUTIFUL day going right now. Sunny and warm... simply awesome!!

The climate here is perfect... very gentle with occasional snowstorms to keep it interesting. And the natural surroundings are stunning beautiful.

Leave?? No way.

[W13]

Randy,

The mailman just brought the four tapes that you sent me. I'm going to pop them into the VCR and start watching them right now.

Thanks again!

[AnthonyC]

Another "blah" day, but not as bad as yesterday. Mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower 60s. I still hate these kind of days...if it's gonna be warm in winter, be sunny...this cloudy and warm stuff doesn't work for me. Back to the forecast...extended guidance is promising. GFS models show a highly amplified ridge building off the Western coast and then retrograding to about 145W by February 7. 500 mb heights lower drastically to about 522. It's still too far away to have any confidence, but it's something to look at. Talked to my aunt when I got home from school and they only had 17 inches of snow...she miscalculated yesterday. And THEY STILL HAD SCHOOL!!! Not even a delay!!! I can't believe that. I know many school districts in Boston have no school until Wednesday. Unbelievable stuff. My aunt kept her kids home today because there were snow drifts over three feet and morning temperatures were around 0 F.

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

If the climate could be like it used to be, I would totally agree. You cannot be interested in weather and thrive in such boredom. We have late spring through early fall to enjoy nice weather. This crap in Jan is painful!
Your area used to average 50 inches of snow per winter. That puts most eastern cities to shame. Would you not like it if it got like that again?

I still say 1981 is not a good match...It never got cold at all that winter. This one has.

[Brian_from_bellingham]

I say if someone wants warm weather, that is what April through October are for. And if someone wants it warm all year round, then that is what Florida is for. I know TT does like snow though.

[TT-SEA]

I said we transitioned into a 1981 pattern. The pattern does not have to match the entire winter.

Yes... more snow would be awesome. I think cold weather with no snow is painfully boring and uncomfortable as well.

I like this kind of boring... its really pleasant to be outside right now. There is good boring and bad boring. The worst winter weather here is a stagnant upper ridge with fog. Yeah its cold but who in the hell cares?? Its miserable and ugly.

The current weather is boring... but really nice!!

We lived in San Diego for more than a decade. You want boring... head south. It is horribly boring and usually very stagnant (except this winter so far).

Seattle is weather paradise to me.

In San Diego there are weather rules that are rarely broken. For example:

1) There will be NO rain (and no real tangible changes in the weather) from April - October. The summer features a very brown landscape and a persistent marine layer and haze. San Diego went 181 consecutive days last year without a SINGLE DROP OF RAIN.

2) It will never snow and rarely gets cold.

3) And some years there is very little rain even in the winter.


In Seattle the landcape is usually green... there are TREES... there are RIVERS AND LAKES (with water in them)... and we can get a good storm ANY TIME of the year!! And... we can get lucky and get some snow every so often. We had 6 inches at our house just 10 days ago. That was awesome. That is something that could never happen in San Diego.

Yet... we could have moved back "home" to Minnesota. But we just did not want to deal with sub-zero weather for weeks on end and 75 degree dewpoints in the summer. And bugs like you cannot imagine.

We decided to leave Southern California and pulled out a map. We decided on Seattle because we wanted to stay on the West Coast... we wanted a lush landscape... we (really just me) wanted more weather excitement... we wanted to be close to the mountains... and finally be in a major (progressive) metropolitan area where we could earn a good living and raise our children.

So... no I am not bored with Seattle!! It has met all my requirements and more since we still have nice, warm, sunny winter days like in San Diego (which was one good aspect of Southern California).

[TT-SEA]

One more note... in general I would prefer that the mountains get pounded with snow. I can be at Snoqualmie Pass in 20 minutes... that is perfect.

I would prefer no snow most of the winter in my backyard and then get hit every so often just for fun.

This year being the exception... we usually have a winter playground just down the road if I want to play in snow!!

That is why we picked North Bend. Its in a perfect location.

[andrewr]

New GFS still trending towards cooler weather and at least it isn't showing a ridge going over us. It seems the high is keeping out to the west.

[TT-SEA]

R-Dub... I cannot wait to get home and watch news coverage from the 1996 blizzard!! Assuming that my tapes are sitting at my front door.

[AnthonyC]

At this point, I would be happy with a dumping in the mountains. It's the end of January and most ski area bases are between 10-15 INCHES. Not feet, but INCHES!!! Give me a break. What ever happened to that progressive, zonal flow most models were predicting three, four days ago? Will it ever evolve? Some models try to bring a strong cold front through on Friday, but as has been the case most of the fall/winter, I have a feeling it will split, then head north or south. That's very indicative of an El Nino pattern. Even Scott Sistek says no real snow for the mountains in the forseeable future. So let's forget about the lowlands for awhile, and pray the mountains get some snow. If the mountains don't get at least a new foot of snow by the middle of February, our water supply will be in big trouble this summer. On the other hand, March and April can be great months for the mountains. Like I said before, I pray this winter doesn't turn into last winter...and so far it is.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Yeah I hope you get them today Tim! I see Justin just got his tapes.

Well I was just down in Everett, and I had to have my window down sitting at the lights! The thermometer in my truck said 62 degrees!! Felt like June. Cooler up here at LK Goodwin, but still warm, its 56 here and sunny! The down part is that the grass is starting to react to the warmer soil temps, as well as air temp, and its starting to grow!! I don't have the budget to hire seasonal workers until the end of Feb at the golf course! Looks like me and my full time crew of 2 will be working overtime