South/Central Midwest your turn is coming...
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- Gothpunk-IL-WX
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 87
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:30 pm
South/Central Midwest your turn is coming...
That's right and as soon as by next weekend. There seems to be a growing background idea that as models trend slightly cooler each run to every other run, that enough cold air maybe around at the surface and mid levels for not snow, although there will be some of that, but mainly a potential ice storm for south/central Missouri, much of Illinois and a good chunck of the Ohio Valley region. Upto half inch amounts of ice are possible at the moment. Of course it's still a week out and it will need to be watched to see if temperatures start trending down farther as we approach next weekend. Also a few inches of snow may occurr on the back side of the system. But again we will have to watch it for further developments. For you New England people, another snowstorm appears to be in the works for late this week week around Thursday, but don't worry it will be no where near as strong as the last system that brough up to 2 feet plus to some areas there. Still think that midwestern Snow storm is still a go by the second week, I have a feeling and despite the lack of support from GFS I'm not going to buy into the GFS as of yet. Will have to wait for what GEM says at 10:30-11:00pm when it comes out, along with a fresh model run of the GFS European seems to buy into the ice storm in the midwest, while the UKMET for days 1-6 hint at it, but lose the signature by the next day after it shows it arounf day 5. the European wants to pull a Texas Hooker out of the Dallas, TX and pull in North Northeastward it also hints at a moderately strong trough behind it which could mean more colder air coming into play then what other models are showing. definitly something to watch. What do yo think will happen anybody seen or heard of this yet? and any opinions?
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Winter will go into a slow retreat this week and the AV is back way up in Canada by February.
Yes, the European carves out a midsection trough but without Arctic air, you can forget any severe winter storm. My idea of a storm pulling out into the Midwest early February a couple of days ago is right on, but not without some Arctic phasing, you will just have a lump of Southern Energy. 15 years ago, this would be a major bomb, but the decline in Major Midwest systems due to many factors, probably means you shouldn't have much confidence. Days of the great storms of 80mph winds are over.
Yes, the European carves out a midsection trough but without Arctic air, you can forget any severe winter storm. My idea of a storm pulling out into the Midwest early February a couple of days ago is right on, but not without some Arctic phasing, you will just have a lump of Southern Energy. 15 years ago, this would be a major bomb, but the decline in Major Midwest systems due to many factors, probably means you shouldn't have much confidence. Days of the great storms of 80mph winds are over.
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- Gothpunk-IL-WX
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 87
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:30 pm
I see your reasoning and I've heard a mouthful from locals that hvae lived here most of not all of there life and remember the days where it was more like the northeast here where it would snow from December and it would stay on the ground almost till April. This was before 1986, ever since then, snows have been shifting more toward the east overall, and tornado alley is spreading east into the tennessee valley and southeast, due to this warming trend and a more pacific like pattern, which is what many locals call it. I called it midwestern warming, but not global warming, because even though in the USA as a whole it's getting warmer here in the northwestern hemisphere it's getting colder in the northeastern hemisphere in places like Asia, Europe, and those areas, it's also getting colder overall in the southern hemisphere. So Global warming has nothing to do with it what so ever. Some people believe that our short term weather climate changes are because of solar minium approaching and the Pacific Ocean getting smaller every year by about 2-4 inches a year, which can really add up over time. Alot of thing are affecting the weather that not even the smartest Meterologist can explain. I think though by the 2010s and especially 2020s that are snowy patterns here in the midwest will possibly return, but probably not as strong as they were in the late 60s 70s and early 80s. I believe all this is just a 40-50 year cycle of winter weather patterns going on. An each year for must places in the midwest snowfall totals for every year are starting to come up again. So maybe I'm right, but it's still a very questionable hypothesis. if I am right then I maybe on to something that nobody else has tried to figure out before!!!! 

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Man, not to put a damper on your joy, but I think winter's gone for the entire country at least for the next two weeks. Almost all models establish a zonal flow over the entire country, bringing "cool" weather to the north, "warm" weather to the south. Although SOME models do develop a decent storm in the midwest, south state regions, it's primarily a gulf of mexico event that lacks any true, arctic air. Without that clash in airmass, nothing extraordinary with evolve. Hopefully this boring pattern ends in the beginning of February, but for now, enjoy the calm weather...particularly states in the Northeast.
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-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1753
- Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: Texarkana
If the upper air dynamics are right, you can get big snows in the southern plains with the type of pattern depicted on the 8-10 day EURO. Texarkana, which is in extreme NE Texas, has gotten two 8 inch plus snows the past 4 years in February from such a pattern. All you need is dry Polar Pacific air and a vigorous upper level distrubance, and bingo, you've got a southern plains snowstorm.
8-10 day EURO
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest
8-10 day EURO
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest
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I have been posting about this situation for about 4 days in my Lawrence/Kansas City thread. So much to respond to.
1. The track of this storm is still way up in the air. On the 12Z, 18Z yesterday and the 0z and 06z today the gfs had this about 100 miles south of me with the a -4 850 temp. over me. Then the 12Z decides to bomb it down into south Texas and leave me high and dry. The euro on the 12Z today does have a weaker storm than the 0z, but it is still located in North Texas and Southern Oklahoma-the GEM has this same idea. I have not seen the 18gfs yet and may not even look at the gfs untill Tuesday (well, That is prob. a lie!!!) So the possible track is still way in doubt.
3. Cold Air: There is plenty of cold air in Canada to work with-Arctic cold-No-but I don't want arctic cold because this year, it has done nothing but suppress the pattern. You do not need arctic air in the central and southern plains to get big snows or an ice storm. The ice storm of 2002 the temp. was 29-32 thru the whole event then was 35 the next day then 45 2 days later-but we got one inch and half of ice. You don't need arctic air for snow-last winter, we got our biggest snow, 8 inches, with temp. at 28 degrees (yes it was a deeper cold air, but it was not arctic)-when the snow finished before a back side front moved in, we hit 38 degrees. This storm can have plenty of cold air if the situation works out. The 12Z gfs and 12Z euor are much more bullish on the back side cold front mid week this week. We could have some lows in the upper teens by Thursday night-I said could.
4. The zonal pattern: This zonal pattern dipicted is not the zonal pattern of 2001-2002 (when we had the ice storm!!) If you look at the euros 500 ht., you can see troughs in this zonal pattern. One trough that taps some cold air, can make a snow storm/ice storm for this area.
5. As far as the past goes: I have done some research on past winters dating back to the 1890's for my area. There were to be sure some snowy winters-but for every snowy winter, there are 10 non snowy winters. As much as I complain about lack of snow since 1993 (our last real good snow year) we have had more snow than many 15 year intervals since 1890. The fact is, for this area, by looking at climo, you have a better chance of having a high of 50 than you do a high of 10. The 60's and 70's were pretty freakish here-I really don't think those were normal. Also, looking at diaries from Platte County Missouri (North KC) the 1840's saw a winter that was just like summer-had one frost the whole winter-one night below 32 degrees the whole winter!!! Is the earth warming-yes-but it is still not as warm as the late Midevial period-are humans affecting this-prob. so. I have posted my thoughts on this in the global weather forum on the idiodicy that we need to drive more suv's thread.
Finally, will I see a winter event this week end or early next week? I have no idea-I do think some one from say Omaha to Lubbock Texas and East to Springfield Missouri has a chance to see one. if I don't, it will be due to the track of the low not due to lack of cold air. I mean I had 8 inches 2 days before Thanksgiving-it was 45 the next day-Lubbock had 2 8 inch snow storms in November-I, 400 miles North, was in the 50's!! To me, it looks like the next 10 days presents the southern and central plains some chances at a winter event. I hope it happens, because the gap is closing fast!!! By the way: I just took a glance at the 18z gfs-what the heck can you say-it is just out there-it has totally weakened the sw Saturday, then brings a low out of Colorado which is stronger (this is actually a solution it had 3 days ago) but does it take this south, no-it goes into Nebraska from about Salina-totally opposite of the 12z euro and totally opposite of what it had on the 0z, 06z, and 12z today-will be interesting to see what goodies the 0z has for tomorrow!!!
1. The track of this storm is still way up in the air. On the 12Z, 18Z yesterday and the 0z and 06z today the gfs had this about 100 miles south of me with the a -4 850 temp. over me. Then the 12Z decides to bomb it down into south Texas and leave me high and dry. The euro on the 12Z today does have a weaker storm than the 0z, but it is still located in North Texas and Southern Oklahoma-the GEM has this same idea. I have not seen the 18gfs yet and may not even look at the gfs untill Tuesday (well, That is prob. a lie!!!) So the possible track is still way in doubt.
3. Cold Air: There is plenty of cold air in Canada to work with-Arctic cold-No-but I don't want arctic cold because this year, it has done nothing but suppress the pattern. You do not need arctic air in the central and southern plains to get big snows or an ice storm. The ice storm of 2002 the temp. was 29-32 thru the whole event then was 35 the next day then 45 2 days later-but we got one inch and half of ice. You don't need arctic air for snow-last winter, we got our biggest snow, 8 inches, with temp. at 28 degrees (yes it was a deeper cold air, but it was not arctic)-when the snow finished before a back side front moved in, we hit 38 degrees. This storm can have plenty of cold air if the situation works out. The 12Z gfs and 12Z euor are much more bullish on the back side cold front mid week this week. We could have some lows in the upper teens by Thursday night-I said could.
4. The zonal pattern: This zonal pattern dipicted is not the zonal pattern of 2001-2002 (when we had the ice storm!!) If you look at the euros 500 ht., you can see troughs in this zonal pattern. One trough that taps some cold air, can make a snow storm/ice storm for this area.
5. As far as the past goes: I have done some research on past winters dating back to the 1890's for my area. There were to be sure some snowy winters-but for every snowy winter, there are 10 non snowy winters. As much as I complain about lack of snow since 1993 (our last real good snow year) we have had more snow than many 15 year intervals since 1890. The fact is, for this area, by looking at climo, you have a better chance of having a high of 50 than you do a high of 10. The 60's and 70's were pretty freakish here-I really don't think those were normal. Also, looking at diaries from Platte County Missouri (North KC) the 1840's saw a winter that was just like summer-had one frost the whole winter-one night below 32 degrees the whole winter!!! Is the earth warming-yes-but it is still not as warm as the late Midevial period-are humans affecting this-prob. so. I have posted my thoughts on this in the global weather forum on the idiodicy that we need to drive more suv's thread.
Finally, will I see a winter event this week end or early next week? I have no idea-I do think some one from say Omaha to Lubbock Texas and East to Springfield Missouri has a chance to see one. if I don't, it will be due to the track of the low not due to lack of cold air. I mean I had 8 inches 2 days before Thanksgiving-it was 45 the next day-Lubbock had 2 8 inch snow storms in November-I, 400 miles North, was in the 50's!! To me, it looks like the next 10 days presents the southern and central plains some chances at a winter event. I hope it happens, because the gap is closing fast!!! By the way: I just took a glance at the 18z gfs-what the heck can you say-it is just out there-it has totally weakened the sw Saturday, then brings a low out of Colorado which is stronger (this is actually a solution it had 3 days ago) but does it take this south, no-it goes into Nebraska from about Salina-totally opposite of the 12z euro and totally opposite of what it had on the 0z, 06z, and 12z today-will be interesting to see what goodies the 0z has for tomorrow!!!
Last edited by sertorius on Sun Jan 23, 2005 9:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The NWS here in the DFW area had mentioned a strong artic front by Sunday or first of next week, but the NWS never goes out on a limb too early. In fact most of the time when they mention anything it is downplayed. I think that is because so far this year it has been a rollercoaster and most of the brutal cold or prec. goes to our north and east. Everything feels colder than normal even though it is normal for us to be in the 50's in Jan. but feels even colder when we have several days in the 70's and then the artic air comes in and puts us back to normal for a few days then back up we go until the next train from the north pulls into NTX. We have been fooled into thinking we are having a cold spell when really we are just knocked back to normal after be above normal for 3 or 4 days of Springtime temps.
I'd love to have some true cold and frozen prec. Im thinking if we don't get it before Valentines then forget it. I'll just have to look forward to the Spring Severe Storms.
I would love for your theory to happen and send NTX some cold and snow . Keep us Texans posted since most of the time we don't get much warning of possible winter weather by the offices around here.
I'd love to have some true cold and frozen prec. Im thinking if we don't get it before Valentines then forget it. I'll just have to look forward to the Spring Severe Storms.
I would love for your theory to happen and send NTX some cold and snow . Keep us Texans posted since most of the time we don't get much warning of possible winter weather by the offices around here.
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-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1753
- Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: Texarkana
The southern plains system the early part of next week needs to be watched closely. The GFS has locked onto it the past 3 or 4 days. Although there is some varability from run to run, this is the type of system that can cause heavy snowfall in the southern plains this time of the year. Everyone from Northern Texas to Kansas needs to keep an eye on this system the upcoming week as it could develop into a pretty big snow event.
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aggiecutter:
I totally agree-The euro and gfs tracks are beginning to come closer together-at least the gfs has backed off today from the foolishness it had at 18Z with the low going into Nebraska. The cold looks much stronger beginning Wed. In fact, the surface maps already show a cold front heading south. To early to make a forcast for sure, but I could see a huge swath of ice some where with some snow on the back!!! You are correct-it needs to be watched!!
I totally agree-The euro and gfs tracks are beginning to come closer together-at least the gfs has backed off today from the foolishness it had at 18Z with the low going into Nebraska. The cold looks much stronger beginning Wed. In fact, the surface maps already show a cold front heading south. To early to make a forcast for sure, but I could see a huge swath of ice some where with some snow on the back!!! You are correct-it needs to be watched!!
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- Tropical Low
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:34 pm
- Location: denison,tx-80 miles NNE of Dallas
I think there is the possibility for some wintery precip over parts of Texas next week if not this weekend, but more likely next week. I keep in touch with my local NWS worker. I asked about the temperatures here in Denison,TX, because the said they would be about 60 degrees Friday-Sat. I told her they said the same thing about this past weekend at first then it was around 38 for the high on Sunday-23. Then when I looked today temps are supposed to be in the 40's for highs this weekend coming up. Acording to Old farmers almanac parts of Texas will get 6 inches of snow around the 4-7 of Febuary!!!!!!!!!!!
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- Tropical Low
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:34 pm
- Location: denison,tx-80 miles NNE of Dallas
Wow I just checked accuweather and they have snow and ice for NTX for the weekend around the 2-4th of Feb. NOw normally I don't trust the accuweather, but when I checked the NWS long range forecast map it had Texas below normal temps and above normal prec. for the same period of time. Seems like the last several Feb. we have had some type of frozen precp. in Texas. Now Ive seen the several others posting on this, so maybe this will be our chance to see some froz. stuff preferably the fluffy stuff.
The local yokals here are still saying in the 50's and rain but I am hoping y'all are right about this weekend, if not I'll take it the next weekend. Please keep us posted if you see things going white on us down here.
The local yokals here are still saying in the 50's and rain but I am hoping y'all are right about this weekend, if not I'll take it the next weekend. Please keep us posted if you see things going white on us down here.
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- Yankeegirl
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
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- Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
- Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
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Here in Houston, the accuweather forecast has some kind of wintery mix in it in the begining of Feb. I hope it stays... I know it is a loooong way off though... IMO, I think that winter isnt over yet here in Texas, and that good 'ol mother nature has another curve ball to throw at us... No scientific rhyme or reason, just a gut... I have no proof that I am looking at... Dont wanna make anyone mad... 

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- NWIASpotter
- Category 5
- Posts: 1961
- Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 12:58 pm
- Location: Terril, Iowa & Ames, Iowa
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A huge trough develops over this weekend, it looks like it will bring those nice cold temps down into your area in the southern plains. Along with this trough, a low pressure system looks to develop and tap into that moisture from the gulf. Early predictions looks like a 1-2 inch precip from Dallas to the east coast, and even a mix of 2 inches plus in some areas along the path of the low. There is a very real possibility of the southern states seeing some more winter here upcoming...
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- Tropical Low
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:34 pm
- Location: denison,tx-80 miles NNE of Dallas
Accuweather has denison,tx getting hit hard with snow!!! From next Monday thru the rest of there 15 day forecast. They even have this Friday with a high of 44 and rain. I know Accuweather really have bad forecastst though, but the Old farmers almanac is calling for very cold and snowy here in Texas for Febuary.
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- Tropical Low
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:34 pm
- Location: denison,tx-80 miles NNE of Dallas
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- Tropical Low
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:34 pm
- Location: denison,tx-80 miles NNE of Dallas
- Yankeegirl
- Category 5
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- Age: 49
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
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- NWIASpotter
- Category 5
- Posts: 1961
- Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 12:58 pm
- Location: Terril, Iowa & Ames, Iowa
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chris07dabomb wrote:NWIASpotter where did you get your info from? Do you think it is a good possibility for winter precip here in north Texas?
Well, that is my quick forecast from looking at this mornings models.. I'm from the northernplains, so I don't pay a lot of attn to you guys down there... But, this was what I have for ya..

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