South/Central Midwest your turn is coming...

[chris07dabomb]

I hope everyone who wants snow gets it. Like I posted earlier our forecast highs for this coming up weekend have went down from the 60's to the 40's with rain!!!!!!!! I sure hope that cold air comes further south before taking a turn east!!!!!!!!!

[chris07dabomb]

NWIASpotter, cool keep on keeping an eye on us, and update us on what the models say. I hope the cold air hits us and we get snow!

[NWIASpotter]

I will try... I noticed you are in high school, same here.. One of my main problems in keeping an eye on the whole US..

I'm liking the chances for precip over TX for sure, but as for winter precip that will depend on the temps at all levels, and especially with the gulf not to far off it could have some major problems with what tyep of precip actually falls...

[BowMeHunter]

NWIA spotter. Do you see any winter storm chances for your area and the upper Midwest including SouthernWisconsin in the long range? Thanks for any imput!! I love winter weather but have no clue on how to read them models lol

[NWIASpotter]

Well, if you are close enough to have some lake effect snow I could see some of that occuring for you tomorrow and then towards the weekend.. A surface high looks to set up some northeast winds and that will put some lake effect snow in the WI area.. That is all the input I can give ya.. Class is to begin..

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

New model trends look good so far, for a mini winter storm in the south eastern corn belt region. However things may and have been changing, but they will contiune to do so. At the present time there is a better picture for the Friday and Saturday Event for snow lovers especially from St. Louis To indianapolis, IN and Springfield, MO areas. The Lastest models being the GFS, GEM, UKMET, and ECMWF along with NGM are showing 850MB and 500MB meter heights to be at or below 0C with the GFS being the most Bullish, but not to far from the NGM model. This temperatures at least in the upper and middle parts of the atomsphere will be 0 or below for the most part for the duration of the event. That's the way it looks right now. This means a mixture of sleet and or snow is likely, if not being all snow for some time or another. The afternoon period on saturday will probably be sleet and or freezing rain given heights and wet bulb temperatures along with favorabl columns for frozen precipation to reach the ground. Now the next problem is Precipation amount. The GFS is again the most bullish showing 2-4 inches of ice and snow mixture by saturday evening, or 1/4 inch liquid equalivate. The NGM doesn't go far enough yet to show precipation amounts, but the NAM model shows 1/4 inch to 1/2 inch, so accually the NAM is more bullish with precipation amounts meaning up to 3-5 inches of snow would be possible if the NAM temperatures were colder, but they accually gone up as Sertious hinted at in another thread and post. if the NAM model cools off more but hold it's precipation amount forecast or rises the amounts even slightly more, and we could be dealing with a mini winter storm for Eastern Missouri and south central Illinois ad central Indiana looks to be the hardest hit as of right now. Will keep watching, but accuweather and the weather channel has most of the areas I just listed with either sleet/ice and or snow/ice mix. so will see. I bet NWS will lower there temperatures at least a good 3-7 degrees by this time tomorrow and have more frozen in this weekend event. But will see what the 066 UTC runs show, and whether or not they still play a similar tune. More as details develop.

[sertorius]

I just posted a whole load of my ideas on the Lawrence/Kansas City thread-2 quick points here: the 0z gfs and 0z NAM are colder and still keep the precip for my area-the soundings show the whole colum below freezing for Friday Afternoon thru Saturday morning-I really think I will pick up 1-2 inches of snow from this with heavier amounts to my North. The 0z GFS is actually the most beautifull run I have ever seen for my area-the track is now in line with the euro with one big shield of precip. and the soundings show the whole colum below or right at freezing (the surface is the warmest-850 is at -4C the surface at 29-32F) for the whole event. If I am reading things correctly, if the 0z gfs verified I could be looking at 6-8 inches of snow Sunday/Monday. Will it happen-prob. not-I've been burned so many times in so many ways with snow storms-I would imagine the track will shift several times, but I have always thought a track from Dallas/Wichita then east would be the winner and that is what the models seem to be going for. The NAM and GFS (and EURO) are trending colder now-will it hold?? At least I can still see the ducks-at about 3:00 today they were flying off!!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

OK here's the 18UTC model run update, and BOY DOES IT LOOK GOOD!!!!!!!!! From Kansas City to Saint Louis and Eastward I see no reason why this areas could possibly pick up 4-6 inches based off contiuning trends and discarding the 06 and 12 UTC models which tend to be goofy on these type of events. Winter storm watch and advisories are popping up in numbers across Kansas and they will likely spread east into Saint Louis, MO as soon as tomorrow if models contiune the trends of whay they now show. The UKMET and Even the MM5 Models are catching up to the play with at least .50 inch accumulations and temperatures at the 850MB and 500MB at or below zero for the threatened areas. I'm still going to hold to my previous forecast, except to largen the 3-6 and 1-2 inch range areas. Icing may not be a problem for the midwest unlike it will be in the east, so no ice accumulation map. A new weather map and accumulation map will come shortly. I bet if things contiune like this, it could get very interesting on Saturday and late Friday night with the biggest snowstorm for this region so far this year. I know compared to the Northeast it's just a dusting in the bucket, but you have to realize some places only have gotten maybe an inch or 2 of snow at best and it melted already. Monday storm ain't looking so hot right now, but it could revive in later forecast. Too early to be worried about it at the moment.

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Here's the New Storm hazards Map through Monday...



Accumulations coming shortly

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Accumulations map is now released. This based of 18UTC models and personal thinking and guidance.

[sertorius]

Gothpunk-IL-WX:

Great map!!! I haven't even looked at the models yet this evening-I'm going to wait untill the 0z come out and begin to focus on temps. and radars. I am currently at 33.8, but have been steadily dropping all evening-this could sure be fun!!! You know, the ironic thing is that 8 days ago, the gfs had this as the stronger storm and the one Monday weaker then switched and now has switched back-I actually saved the map for the fun of it!!