Strong cold air damming event in the Southeast next weekend.

[Stormsfury]

Hey SF.....Do you think with us having a possible CAD effect, it would help to drop the 850 line further south and would include basically all of SC , even down to Charleston? Do you see any signs of what could lead to possible low pressure deepening as of yet?

12z guidance today still remains split WRT to moisture and moisture returns, HOWEVER, the chances of an icestorm are definitely increasing NE GA/NW SC/W and Central NC ... IMHO, IF I were draw a line (for the record, I won't), but speculation ONLY would run the FRZ line from just NE of ATL to Athens to Augusta to Columbia, to the favored CAD regions just west of Raleigh ...

SF

[Wnghs2007]

Hey SF.....Do you think with us having a possible CAD effect, it would help to drop the 850 line further south and would include basically all of SC , even down to Charleston? Do you see any signs of what could lead to possible low pressure deepening as of yet?

12z guidance today still remains split WRT to moisture and moisture returns, HOWEVER, the chances of an icestorm are definitely increasing NE GA/NW SC/W and Central NC ... IMHO, IF I were draw a line (for the record, I won't), but speculation ONLY would run the FRZ line from just NE of ATL to Athens to Augusta to Columbia, to the favored CAD regions just west of Raleigh ...

SF

Chills run down KC's back...

[Stormsfury]

12z ECMWF looking more ominous for ice/sleet in the Carolinas, NE GA, W and Central NC, and potentials for a 2nd high sliding down bringing a new wedge with the arrival of the 2nd batch of deeper moisture ... this COULD get quite interesting, folks ...

Gotta run for now ...

SF

[Fodie77]

12z ECMWF looking more ominous for ice/sleet in the Carolinas, NE GA, W and Central NC, and potentials for a 2nd high sliding down bringing a new wedge with the arrival of the 2nd batch of deeper moisture ... this COULD get quite interesting, folks ...

Gotta run for now ...

SF

How is it looking for northern VA?

[DLI2k5]

SF.......you're the man! I really appreciate your posts and esp. keeping all of us Carolina folks in perspective as to what's going on! As for the talk of ice/sleet with the first batch of GOM moisture and the HP in place, you think this will certainly bode well for the western half of SC/NC and NE Ga. What's caught my attention, is the fact you've mentioned an even deeper batch of GOM moisture working its way into the picture with a possible secondary HP setting up. In saying that, will that possibly reinforce colder air and therefore change over the second wave of moisture into more snow than ice? I know this is all pure speculaton at this point, but just curious on your thoughts!

[krysof]

well good luck with that, those in the carolinas and south. Up here, I have had enough for now but another 3-5 inches is possible tonight and Wednesday morning. Some areas that got hit hard with the blizzard may receive up to 7 inches with even more in isolated spots. Enough is enough. Too much shoveling and the threat of ice on the sidewalks is likely because today temperatures rose above freezing or up to 35 degrees and not it's about 33 maybe 34. Refreezing of the ice on the sidewalks may not occur tonight because of clouds and of course steady snows, but once that shot of arctic air comes in Wednesday late afternoon and night, clear skies, lots of ice, my worst nightmare. High temperatures will struggle to rise near 20 degrees on Thursday, here in nj they are forecasting 18 degrees on Thursday and 20 on Friday. Lows will only be around zero Friday morning, 4 degrees Saturday morning. Coldest air of the season.

[QCWx]

12z ECMWF looking more ominous for ice/sleet in the Carolinas, NE GA, W and Central NC, and potentials for a 2nd high sliding down bringing a new wedge with the arrival of the 2nd batch of deeper moisture ... this COULD get quite interesting, folks ...

Gotta run for now ...

SF

What do you think about a super cad analog for this storm? maybe not in terms of the cold but in terms of there being two slugs of moisture the first possibly being sn transitioning to ip with the second batch progged to be zr?

[Stormsfury]

12z ECMWF looking more ominous for ice/sleet in the Carolinas, NE GA, W and Central NC, and potentials for a 2nd high sliding down bringing a new wedge with the arrival of the 2nd batch of deeper moisture ... this COULD get quite interesting, folks ...

Gotta run for now ...

SF

What do you think about a super cad analog for this storm? maybe not in terms of the cold but in terms of there being two slugs of moisture the first possibly being sn transitioning to ip with the second batch progged to be zr?

The only one I can think of is, believe it or not (and I hate to say this b/c I DON'T want anyone to compare this current situation to it, but it's January 2000 ... the first event which busted the other way, and then viola, the second wave and deeper storm which exploded seemingly out of nowhere ... the break in between the two waves was still cloudy and cold down here with continued NNE winds ... the current situation, the cold air damming appears a little stronger ...

Anyway, this is a 4.2MB LOOP from Jan 22nd, 2000 to Jan 24th, 2000 I created ... (temporary on the website) ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/CCSatLoop.gif

and the second part (different source where the 1st) where my created loop leaves off ... is the secondary disturbance basically forms and catches up to the first one (which decided to stall and basically wait for the phase) ... and remember just how the model guidance handled that event ...
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/imag ... rmovie.gif

I definitely don't believe we're dealing with a similar situation, but I wouldn't mind if I busted that way, either...

SF

[QCWx]

Honestly, 2000 hadnt even crossed my mind. That first storm is sort of a forgotten storm thats overshadowed by the carolina crusher. The first stormed dumped up to half a foot across much of western NC. I myself measured 5".

[JenyEliza]

Anyway, this is a 4.2MB LOOP from Jan 22nd, 2000 to Jan 24th, 2000 I created ... (temporary on the website) ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/CCSatLoop.gif

THAT is the storm that wiped out the roof of our house at 3am, and took out my van 6 hours later (I can't bear to look at that loop--knowing what's about to happen to me and my unwitting family).

Took me until MAY of 2000 to get a new roof on the house and get the van repaired. Our insurance company was a complete (%$%^ when it came to the settlements and repairs.

PLEASE, PLEASE don't let us get ice this weekend. SNOW, that's fine. NO ICE.

Jeny

[Wnghs2007]

12z ECMWF looking more ominous for ice/sleet in the Carolinas, NE GA, W and Central NC, and potentials for a 2nd high sliding down bringing a new wedge with the arrival of the 2nd batch of deeper moisture ... this COULD get quite interesting, folks ...

Gotta run for now ...

SF

What do you think about a super cad analog for this storm? maybe not in terms of the cold but in terms of there being two slugs of moisture the first possibly being sn transitioning to ip with the second batch progged to be zr?

The only one I can think of is, believe it or not (and I hate to say this b/c I DON'T want anyone to compare this current situation to it, but it's January 2000 ... the first event which busted the other way, and then viola, the second wave and deeper storm which exploded seemingly out of nowhere ... the break in between the two waves was still cloudy and cold down here with continued NNE winds ... the current situation, the cold air damming appears a little stronger ...

Anyway, this is a 4.2MB LOOP from Jan 22nd, 2000 to Jan 24th, 2000 I created ... (temporary on the website) ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/CCSatLoop.gif

and the second part (different source where the 1st) where my created loop leaves off ... is the secondary disturbance basically forms and catches up to the first one (which decided to stall and basically wait for the phase) ... and remember just how the model guidance handled that event ...
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/imag ... rmovie.gif

I definitely don't believe we're dealing with a similar situation, but I wouldn't mind if I busted that way, either...

SF

YOU SAID THE FORBIDDEN WORD...JANUARY 24th-25th 2000. MY ICE STORM OF THE CENTURY DOWN HERE!!! THAT WAS MY BABY....

ICE ICE BABY!!!!! Nothing better than reading a book by Candle light and under a cover....

Also know on CBS 46 as the Y2k Icestorm.

[JenyEliza]

12z ECMWF looking more ominous for ice/sleet in the Carolinas, NE GA, W and Central NC, and potentials for a 2nd high sliding down bringing a new wedge with the arrival of the 2nd batch of deeper moisture ... this COULD get quite interesting, folks ...

Gotta run for now ...

SF

What do you think about a super cad analog for this storm? maybe not in terms of the cold but in terms of there being two slugs of moisture the first possibly being sn transitioning to ip with the second batch progged to be zr?

The only one I can think of is, believe it or not (and I hate to say this b/c I DON'T want anyone to compare this current situation to it, but it's January 2000 ... the first event which busted the other way, and then viola, the second wave and deeper storm which exploded seemingly out of nowhere ... the break in between the two waves was still cloudy and cold down here with continued NNE winds ... the current situation, the cold air damming appears a little stronger ...

Anyway, this is a 4.2MB LOOP from Jan 22nd, 2000 to Jan 24th, 2000 I created ... (temporary on the website) ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/CCSatLoop.gif

and the second part (different source where the 1st) where my created loop leaves off ... is the secondary disturbance basically forms and catches up to the first one (which decided to stall and basically wait for the phase) ... and remember just how the model guidance handled that event ...
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/imag ... rmovie.gif

I definitely don't believe we're dealing with a similar situation, but I wouldn't mind if I busted that way, either...

SF

YOU SAID THE FORBIDDEN WORD...JANUARY 24th-25th 2000. MY ICE STORM OF THE CENTURY DOWN HERE!!! THAT WAS MY BABY....

ICE ICE BABY!!!!! Nothing better than reading a book by Candle light and under a cover....

Also know on CBS 46 as the Y2k Icestorm.

We spent that ice storm in a frozen house, no heat, and trees on the roof and car. On top of that, it was my twins 5th birthday weekend (tomorrow is their 10th bday).

Aside from their birthday that weekend, this event holds absolutely NO fond memories for me, thank you.

[tedryan]

The 2000 one was not as bad as the 71 storm. No power for a week. The Govenors mansion was without electricity. With 2000 we were only without power for three days. Still, I hope we do not get this one either. I would much prefer snow.

[Wnghs2007]

12z ECMWF looking more ominous for ice/sleet in the Carolinas, NE GA, W and Central NC, and potentials for a 2nd high sliding down bringing a new wedge with the arrival of the 2nd batch of deeper moisture ... this COULD get quite interesting, folks ...

Gotta run for now ...

SF

What do you think about a super cad analog for this storm? maybe not in terms of the cold but in terms of there being two slugs of moisture the first possibly being sn transitioning to ip with the second batch progged to be zr?

The only one I can think of is, believe it or not (and I hate to say this b/c I DON'T want anyone to compare this current situation to it, but it's January 2000 ... the first event which busted the other way, and then viola, the second wave and deeper storm which exploded seemingly out of nowhere ... the break in between the two waves was still cloudy and cold down here with continued NNE winds ... the current situation, the cold air damming appears a little stronger ...

Anyway, this is a 4.2MB LOOP from Jan 22nd, 2000 to Jan 24th, 2000 I created ... (temporary on the website) ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/CCSatLoop.gif

and the second part (different source where the 1st) where my created loop leaves off ... is the secondary disturbance basically forms and catches up to the first one (which decided to stall and basically wait for the phase) ... and remember just how the model guidance handled that event ...
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/imag ... rmovie.gif

I definitely don't believe we're dealing with a similar situation, but I wouldn't mind if I busted that way, either...

SF

YOU SAID THE FORBIDDEN WORD...JANUARY 24th-25th 2000. MY ICE STORM OF THE CENTURY DOWN HERE!!! THAT WAS MY BABY....

ICE ICE BABY!!!!! Nothing better than reading a book by Candle light and under a cover....

Also know on CBS 46 as the Y2k Icestorm.

We spent that ice storm in a frozen house, no heat, and trees on the roof and car. On top of that, it was my twins 5th birthday weekend (tomorrow is their 10th bday).

Aside from their birthday that weekend, this event holds absolutely NO fond memories for me, thank you.

Sorry to hear that...

For me and my family it was awsome... We went to the store and picked up items because we were w/o are generator we now have at the time...But we saw trees down...and heard them falling and it was really awsome...

Though Clean up was heck.. But for me it was worth it.

[JenyEliza]

...But we saw trees down...and heard them falling and it was really awsome...

I'm glad for you that you had such "awesome" fun that weekend. Only someone who hasn't had ice-encrusted trees land on their house at 3am (as they slept) and only vehicle taken out 6 hours later could describe this event as "awesome"--and be looking forward to a replay of such an ice event this weekend.

It's anything but "awesome". It is downright terrifying, expensive, stressful and absolutely NOT FUN.

Though Clean up was heck.. But for me it was worth it.

Try the clean up we experienced. Heck for you? I doubt it even compares.

Worth it? Sorry. I can't say the same for us and our experience.

While the kids and I are dying to see some snow this year, that's what we want SNOW. None of us--including my 10 year olds--care a thing about seeing another ice storm. EVER.

EVER.

Jeny

[Wnghs2007]

Sorry about your troubles Jeny.


If I could give you snow I would, but for some reason the Miller A's have just went to sleep on us the past few years, except Periodically when one forms.

The only reason Im a fan of Icestorms is because of its awww inspiring might...What just a quarter inch of it can turn into 50 tons on 1 tree. Its very amazing to watch it at work, doing its thing.

Well night Jeny.

[Stormsfury]

Right now, the setup does not favor good snows ... sorry.

Time Sensitive ... cold air damming at work as illustrated by the JAN 26th, 00z MM5.
http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html

[rsvh2000]

I am a lurker from the Southeast and have enjoyed staying up to date with everything from everyone's posts. Thanks to you guys I am actually sort of kind of starting to understand some of the jargon, numbers, etc......

I do have one simple question that I hope someone can answer for me. What is a CAD event ?

Thanks.....back into lurk mode.......

RSVH

[JenyEliza]

I am a lurker from the Southeast and have enjoyed staying up to date with everything from everyone's posts. Thanks to you guys I am actually sort of kind of starting to understand some of the jargon, numbers, etc......

I do have one simple question that I hope someone can answer for me. What is a CAD event ?

Thanks.....back into lurk mode.......

RSVH

CAD = Cold Air Damming

PS. Welcome aboard...and don't lurk. Join us!!

[JenyEliza]

Sorry about your troubles Jeny.


If I could give you snow I would, but for some reason the Miller A's have just went to sleep on us the past few years, except Periodically when one forms.

The only reason Im a fan of Icestorms is because of its awww inspiring might...What just a quarter inch of it can turn into 50 tons on 1 tree. Its very amazing to watch it at work, doing its thing.

Well night Jeny.

I'm so familiar with 50 ton trees. THAT is why I don't like or want an ice storm. Those 50 ton trees falling on a house (when you're in it) aren't awe-inspiring. They're TERRYIFYING.

I know you would give me snow if you could...but please don't wish ice on us. Tree removal is expensive, and we're taking them out a few at a time, but we're not ready for ice yet. We still have too many pines around our house--even after taking out 12 of them, there are still a couple close enough they could do a number on our house. I think the car will be OK this time if we have ice.

If we have to have ice, I'm praying for a minor event....I can't afford to do another January 2000. That just about broke the bank.

Jeny