Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days

[sertorius]

simplykristi:

I will never forget that snow-I was in grad school at MU (I know-ironic-an avid KU fan in school at Mizzou!!!) and hat to work 24 strait hours at the convinient store because everyone was snowed in!! When I was at KU in March of 1990, Lawrence got 11 inches in early March. We can-it is just a matter if the pattern can become favorable again in time to get one-we shall see-I have just noticed that the gfs on the 12z run is continuing its south ward trend of the storm for next weekend-I really don't believe that it will move across southern Texas-there is no arctic air really in place to suppress the pattern that much-the euro is further North. Time will tell, but I really think we are in for some winter type weather in the next 10 days!!!

By the way: Nice game by KU yesterday huh!!! Man did we look awfull or what???

[sertorius]

Just a quick update: The 18z gfs is just nuts in my humble opinion-it is totally divergent from any of its previous runs as well as the euro and gem. Both the 12z gfs and 12z euro are much stronger on the cold front mid week. I still think some body in the southern-central plains will see a winter event in the next 10 days-where and what type is still up in the air as the models are up in the air. Esp. the 18z gfs-takes a low it totally destroyed on the 0z, 6z, and 12z, and intensifies it and then instead of going south thru texas, it heads due North into Nebraska-this after the 12z gfs took everything to the gulf!!

[sertorius]

Well, the 0z and 06z changed-of course!!! I haven't had much time to look things-the quick glimpse of the 0z euro and 06z and what has come out of the 12z gfs looks like things could get interesting for here with some lt. precip that could be forzen!! Both are back to bringing a low across the southern plains-as the models turn -of course, the euro has been fairly consistent with this-just holds it back longer. I will try and post some more over my lunch break-have to teach Latin-WoHooooo!!!!!

[sertorius]

A couple of quick thoughts:

1. Both the gfs (12Z) euro (0z) seem to be much stronger on the cold air beginning Wed.-this has been a trend since Saturday or so. They also want to keep the cold air in place thru the weekend

2. The gfs on the 12Z brings out 2 pieces of energy-one on Friday and one on Sunday-the one Sunday is the strongest one but the one Friday gives us some lt. precip. Friday night-possibly Fr. Drizzle?? The Gfs takes the low Sunday and dives it from Southern Colorado to Central Texas-this farther south than yesterday.
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/avn-hires/h96/avn_96_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/avn-lhires/h102/avn_102_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/avn-hires/h108/avn_108_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/avn-hires/h114/avn_114_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/avn-hires/h156/avn_156_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/avn-hires/h156/avn_156_850.gif

The euro, at least it looks that way to me, brings it out at one time in the Saturday-Monday period and has it a bit further North going thru Oklahoma and Arkansas

http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h120_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h144_sfc.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h120_500.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h120_850.gif
http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/US/ecmwf_h144_850.gif

I hope these maps make sense-I don't think anything is set in stone as of yet-not by a long shot nor do I think my area will get a storm-I do believe that the models are starting to show that some one in this area: Say Omaha to Lubbock to St. Louis will see a winter event in the next 10 days. Worth watching for sure!!!

[frankthetank]

As long as it stays south this time! I've got a mountain of snow growing in the driveway that i hope melts off a little (should atleast until thursday)...

The day 7 Euro looks pretty chilly...even KS looks to be in the "freezer".
What about those temps today? Rapid CIty 69F...Kearny 70F...a person doesn't even need to go to Florida...My sister who lives in Omaha "only" reached 46F today...me 33F...but it was gorgeous!

On the other thread you mentioned a winter in the 1840's that never really happened. Thats amazing! I dream of stuff like that. The winter of 2001-2002 comes to mind. We didn't go under 0F until early March. 60's in Dec, 50's Jan & Feb...amazing winter (for warm winter lover)...

[SnowGod]

If you notice, after the Overrunning, Damming energy/storm potential this weekend, the GFS developes a Gulf Low around the same time.

The Euro is similiar but it hasn't developed the Gulf Low yet and has ARCTIC air straddling the Plains/Upper Midwest. Very interesting, but I have not heard a good winter storm in the Upper Midwest since 2002 and "blizzard" level storms since 1999. I remember back in Wisconsin, during the glory days of the 70's and 80's, storms with 90mph gusts were common every 2-3 years.

I would rather move back than live in Eastern Ohio however. I only have had 2 good storms and they both were of "Nor'easter" variety(96,2003) since I have been in this "hole". I remember Winter storms like in the 80's and early 90's that were awesome in The Upper Midwest.

[sertorius]

Snowgod and Frankthetank:

It was an awesome day here-temps. close to 60 degrees!!! On the topic of past winters etc., that is an interesting topic for me. I hear my grandparents and my mom talking about all the snow in the 50's and 60's. However, if you look at the records, the 50's over all were pretty snowless for this area. To be honest, it takes a heck of alot of varaiables to come together for this area to get a real good snow storm. If the track goes 50 miles either way or the storm weakens, or as happens most often, warm air gets into the mid levels, you are cooked. The 60's and 70's while they had thier warm periods were pretty good for here but those 2 decades are the anaomoly not the snowless winters. Our average snow taking the past 110 years is 21 inches-the past 12 years we have averaged 17-4 inches off-not that bad really. I'm kind of rambling here, but people are saying the weather is changing and I don't totally disagree with them-but over all, my local climate has not changed that much if you look at it over time. I do believe we are due for a big snow storm-10 plus inches-(a good snow here is about 6-8)
Interesting stuff to talk about-people for obvious reasons remember the big snows, but forget about all the days in the 40's and 50's which here are quite a few.

As far as this weekend goes-still to early to tell if you ask me-the models were honking a bit today, but I'm sure the 18z gfs and the 0z gfs will change-the euro has been fairly consistent. I'm really watching how far this cold front goes mid week-that will be a big player for the weekend.

[frankthetank]

After looking @ some upclose imagery of Kansas, it seems very green in the central part of the state. West of Wichita...wheat fields?

We've had a few decent winters (2000-2001) with lots of snow & cold (the latter of which i detest!). On April 15, 2002 the high here was 90F....April 21, 2002 we had 4.5 inches of snow!...sounds like Kansas!

THe Euro is keeping that big high pressure well north of me vs. earlier runs. Looking @ it, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of arctic air around. As you can tell, i don't even look at the GFS. I usually take a look at the Canadian 10 anomaly and the Euro.

I suppose come summer you just hope for those big Canadian highs to come in and save you from the blast furnace..? I'll admit i'm not really fond high heat/humidity.

[sertorius]

Frankthetank:

Yea, I pray for a Canadian High to reach this far south in the summer-every couple of years, one does manage to make it. In 1989 one did and we hit the lower 40's in August (should have noted that as that december we hit minus 24-all time record cold!!!!) But man does it get hot here in the summer-a funny thing: Lawrence, kansas has been the hot spot of the nation once every year for the past 3 years!!! Kansas is in the middle of the winter wheat season right now and over all, we have had some pretty good moisture the past 6-7 months. Our drought is on the way out which is great-we were over 25 inches behind for about 2 years!!! The temps. are the key for this weekend-I don't need any arctic cold-the Euro does keep my 850 temps. at or just below 0 this weekend-we shall see.

[sertorius]

Ok: Just have to throw something out here-I look at the 18z gfs-totally different solution than the 12z gfs-totally takes me out of precip. for Friday-Saturday. In fact, today's 18z run looked just like yesterday's 18z run. Well, the 0z gfs is now rolling out: It returns to the solutions of the 0z yesterday, the 06z and the 12Z-I am back in some lite precip for Friday saturday and, my 850 temps. are below 0. Also, the euro and eta are showing very similar ideas. The euro, according to the 12z, takes the slp Saturday in Colorado and moves it to Tenn. on Sunday-that is a good track for me (I do not know how to get precip. amounts for the euro.) The 0z eta at 84 hours has the precip in the same place as the gfs and the low similar to the euro. What does this mean:

1. I'm a nut for spending so much time following some small slp that prop. won't even give me anything

2. The euro has been consistent so far with its track-thru Northern Oklahoma into Tenn. The gfs is fairly consist. on the 0z, 06z, and 12z but on the 18, it goes bonkers!!

3. The eta will be interesting to see when it reaches Friday.

4. Every forcast I have seen for this period is changing each run of the gfs-cold looks stronger on this run-well, cold looks weaker on this run-well this run it is south-now latest models (GFS) show it north...All is still up in the air.

As of tonight though I would forcast the chance of lt. precip. Friday night into Saturday-looks to me like it would be freezing drizzle as the cold air is not that deep but could be snow. Nothing heavy. And just for a link, I'll try and post the Euro for Monday: that low is comming out perfect for me!!! By the way, the above is really dependent on how much cold air stays entrenched here-the models seem to think some might.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005012100!!/

[BowMeHunter]

Great thread Sertorius, I love reading your interest and excitement for the Weather..I love the winter weather but I have no clue on how to read all those different models

One ?, That storm you say that looks to be having a very favorable track for your area on Monday, would that effect the upper Midwest to or no?
LoL OK another Question, do you see any possible Pan Handler Hookers or any other possible lows making their way up to Southern Wisconsin in any long range models?

I hope we get some chances In Feb for one more big storm in the form of snow..I cant believe its already almost Feb Winters seem to go buy so fast lately due to the late starting winters here in Far South eastern Wisconsin, Milwaukee is where I live BTW..

Thanks for any help you can give me on my questions, and keep this great thread going because I love reading it...Hope you get your Big snow storm yet this Yr

[sertorius]

Bowhunter:

Thanks for the kind words!!! I am obsessed with winter weather and much to my wife's (and 2 kids) chagrin this winter has been worse than ever!! However, I am just a Latin/History teacher and most of hwat I post is prob. bunk!! The euro has been consistent with the track of all the storms-taking them thru Northern texas or southern Oklahoma out thru Tenn. The gfs has a similar track on 3 out of 4 runs a day-it is the 18z that is always out there in never never land. I would say that the Sunday-Tuesday low would track some where between Dallas Texas and Wichita Kansas based on all the waffelling models then head up into Tenn. I would think you would get some precip with this esp. if the storm would wrap up a bit. You will def. see more winter weather this month-esp. from clipper systems I would think. The Monday event is still too far out-I can't even get a consistent run for an even this Friday/Saturday but would now say that I might see some lite frozen precip on Friday night. This winter has had cold spells but has been very boring-the fact that I have a chance in the next 6 days is enough to get my blood boiling!!!

[sertorius]

It is really starting to look like the Lawrence/Kansas City area may see some winter precip in the Friday-Tuesday period. Today's runs of the gfs (I did not look at the 18z-it prob. has me in the 100's for this weekend!!-that run has been so flakey!!!) and euro are showing some action. the gfs has us in some fairly good precip. Sunday/Monday and our 850 temps. are below 0. Both the models seem to take the low thru Texas then north east into Arkansas-southern Kansas will see much more than me, but I'm in the game!! 3 points:

1. Will it hold??? That is the question-the models do seem to be comming to an agrrement of two lows comming across the southern plains-still to early to tell for sure, but prob. a track between Dallas and Oklahoma City North Eastward.

2. How cold will it be? Watching the temps. starting tomorrow will be a big deal-we could see rain or ice (prob. better chance at one of those 2)

3. I am prob. totally off on this, but a low developed today and took a track thru southern kansas-could this be hinting at a track for the next 2 storms?? If you look at satelite images, it does, at least earlier today, look as though the moisture was streaming more North over the Baha of California.

Interesting times ahead-but there really seemed to be model consistencey develop today. You can also see the moisture streaming into the South West on the satelite and the surface front is almost to Iowa-the ducks are circ.-will they land???

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Accually you would be surprised It shows a 1-2 foot snowstorm between KC and St. Louis, MO with 2 more days of light 1-3 inch per day snows for a total of up to 2 feet by all set and done. Yes sounds exciting, but I think it WILL change with the next run coming out in 1-2 hours. The GEM will come out soon, and I havent looked at the the other models other then the UKMET, which is a little goofy, but not as bad as it was yesturday with all the storms slaming the southeast. I'll give a full update tomorrow night.

[sertorius]

Gothpunk-Il-Wx:

You know, that is the first run of the 18z that showed that-for the past 3 days, the 0z, 06z, and 12z showed us with some good precip, but the 18z went crazy and took the low to the Amazon Basin (Kidding)-took it way south. I have not looked at it-I will prob. wait untill the 0z comes out. I will be interested to see the eta and tomm. 0z euro as the 12z today was the first time it took the low that far South. Still lots of time and if this front doesn't barrell thru, it's all for nothin anyways!!!

[sertorius]

With all of today's model runs in and the 0z gfs and 0z euro for Wed. still in the process of running and them showing the possibilty of two winter events for this area, there are many things that can happen and most likely will happen:

1. The track: if the storm tracks to far south and is not wrapped up, I'm done. If it tracks to far north, then I get into ice and just plain rain. These are two things that happen to this area on a regular basis.

2. Moisture availability: Will the storm track well, but then spawn so many thunderstroms to the south that all the moiusture is sucked out-that happens fairly often here as well. We have a storm track ok but moisture gets sucked out by t-storms in Louisiana and South Texas.

3. Cold Air: Will the cold air get here and stay? If the strom tracks north-say thru Southern Kansas or Northern Oklahoma, will too much warm air get punched in and we are looking at ice and rain. This happens 9 out of 10 times-rare is it that we get a snow that starts as snow and ends as snow.

Just a few things for me to ponder-I am actually more focused on Friday/Saturday as I think the cold air will be better entrenched than Sunday/Monday. Also, it is rare for us to get two good winter events back to back-if we wind up saturday with say 1/4 inch of ice or 2 inches of snow and the roads are a mess etc. the storm Sunday/Monday, histroy tells us, will not get here but stay south.

[sertorius]

Alrighty then-I am a nut case as I stayed up to see the 0z runs of the gfs and eta-

Friday/Saturday Event: Both the gfs and eta drop close to a 1/4 inch of precip for my area in that period. The soundings on both, at this juncture anyways, show a wintery mix/rain event-based on the 0z run, the cold air will not hang on long enough for me-I will say that places North of me, Omaha and south Central Nebraska and even North Central Kansas could see 2-5 inches of snow from this Friday/Saturday event. The soundings of both the eta and gfs keep the whole colum for those areas below freezing untill 84 hours. This looks like a good event for them!!!! For me, byt 72 hours on both the gfs and eta, I am above freezing at the surface and by Sunday, way above freezing!!!! Summary: for me, lt. freezing rain/snow Friday afternoon into Friday night-then changing to lite rain on Saturday. Fairly good snows to my North.

Sunday/Monday Event: the Big Kahuna: well, the 0z gfs does me justice on the track-it takes the low from Oklahoma into Southern Missouri over to St. Louis then up the apps. This may be a bit to far North as I'm not sure the low will really turn that far North east-the gfs has a High sitting off the Atlantic Coast which is prob. turning it-we shall see-any who-with the further north track, i am looking at almost and inch to inch and half of precip-horray i should say-well, the problem, as outlined in the above post, with the further North track, and the previous low comming through what cold air I had is gone daddy gone (both things I mentioned above as being potential problems.)-Most of the storm Sunday/Monday, according to the gfs soundings, will be in the form of rain-heavey rain!! Rain for everybody from Salina, Kansas to Saint. Louis. As of this run, it appears that I could pick up an inch or 2 of snow on the back side Monday afternoon but this right now looks like a rain storm. Not just because the 0z gfs is saying that-the cold air is just not strong enough to hold on.

A couple of other points: the euro holds this storm back and intensifies it then brings it more south. I would not be surprised if the gfs does not begin to trend back south in the next couple of days. However, if it goes further south, i am prob. out of the main precip. shield as this storm does not seem to have a far reaching north ward shield-even beyond that, even if it trends south and I don't get the massive warm air pumped in here, It looks like the low Friday will scour out what cold we have. (I must note that the euro's 850 temps. are colder for this period than the gfs and the gfs has done a horrible job with temps. this past month-but with the eta on board with the warm up on Saturday...)

Thus, this still needs to be watched-the gfs soundings could be off-if this were all to be snow as depicted on the 0z gfs, I'd be looking at a major snow storm-maybe I will be surprised!!! The cold front this week is so important!!!!!

[sertorius]

Well, the new model runs do not offer much hope. The gfs has a similar track but a weaker storm and still very warm temps. for Sunday. The Nam (eta) show the same scenario and even quickens the warm up for Friday/Saturday-I might not even get much frozen Friday night!!! However, Sat. images seem to show the moisture moving quicker than what models are showing-if that first wave were to have mositure in here by Tomorrow, I could see snow changing to fr. rain to plain rain.

The long range gfs and 240 euro are just yuck (accept New England-how much to they pay Mother Nature???) if you like winter weather. Yes, things could change ofr this weekend and in the long range-however, the euro and gfs have been hinting at quite a ridge in the west for the past 2 days. My chances of a good winter event are fleeting quickly-Can we see snow mid Feb. to early March?? Sure-and some big ones-but the possibility is not more than 30%.

[sertorius]

I hope I don’t bore you too much, but here is my discussion for the Friday-Monday period for Lawrence/Kansas City. All comments are welcome and I’m sure you can find several things to comment on as I really don’t know what the hey I’m doing!!!

I am basing this on the 0z ETA, 12Z EURO, 12Z UKMET and 12 and 18Z GFS.
Friday/Saturday: All three models bring a weak s/w thru the southern plains during this time period. All have also strengthened it a bit with today’s later runs. Biggest issue for my area with this (as with the one later this weekend) is the cold air. Tonight’s surface wind plots show the high already sliding east of me and I have a North East Wind not a North Wind-I will not get the full brunt of this cold air-I am still just at 32.5 at 9:30 tonight and the front passed me at 9:00 this morning. However, the 0Z ETA, UKMET and EURO are a bit colder than the gfs-I’m talking about 1-1.4 degree’s Celsius but that is huge for this event. The precipitation looks to begin around Friday afternoon and looks to begin and stay as lt. snow (the whole column is below freezing) thru Friday night into Saturday morning. The GFS tries to really warm us up by hour 60, but the ETA has us below freezing thru 66 hours and has trended slightly colder than previous runs. (I’m not sure if it is correct-will have to watch the cold the next 24 hours-but the ETA (I guess NAM) has done better this month than the GFS with the surface cold. Thus, I would say, my area will see lt. snow Friday night into early Saturday morning then may change briefly to drizzle/freezing drizzle before ending Saturday mid morning. I think we could get 1-2 inches from this if it holds as is tonight.

Sunday/Monday: I still believe the exact track of this storm is in some doubt. The euro takes it thru central Texas into Northern Arkansas then directly East. I can not get precipitation amounts for the euro, but that is not a bad track for my area-not perfect, but not bad. It depends on how big the precipitation shield is and I can’t tell on the EURO. The GFS wants to take the low thru Southern Missouri up over St. Louis and then along the App. Mts. Thus, the reason the GFS has me warm up so much Saturday and Sunday. But even if the low takes a more southern track, I’m not really sure if A. the precip. Is there and B. if we have enough cold air in place for frozen precip. We are not getting the full affects of this cold air like Atlanta will on Saturday and it really looks like Friday’s low will scour out the cold air. Time will tell on this-this still has the chance, if all can come together, to be a good weather maker for someone in the plains-I think right now, that we will see all rain with maybe some back lash snows. The ETA has trended colder for Sunday (the 12z had us at 39 degrees Sunday morning-now we are at freezing) and the EURO’s 850 temps. are colder. This still needs to be watched but as of now, it really looks like a rain maker for this area.

Long Term: After this weekend, the central plains once again returns to the boring Bazarro world of winter. The GFS and Euro cut a low off over the South West and that really pumps our heights up here-we may see some tail end of clippers, but we quickly return to last weeks pattern. How long will it last? No idea-I do know that this weekend is our best shot at a winter weather event for quite some time-if this doesn’t pan out, we’re looking at Feb. 9-10 at least before something happens and maybe even longer-by then, we are living on borrowed time. Of course things could change-but all the talk of a great Feb. may be North and East of me. We shall see!!!!

*** I have to add this: the OZ GFS has the track like the 12Z Euro and the soundings are much colder-much colder-5-6 degrees colder than previous-if the 0z gfs were to verify as it is now, I would see 6-8 inches of snow at least-the whole column stays below freezing with 850 temps. running around -4-the surface hits just at 32. Will this be the track??? Who knows-the gfs and prob. the euro will switch back and forth about 100 miles every run-but the 0z gfs is a thing of beauty for my area if you like snow!!!! The only reason I'm excited is that it really does go towards the euro in track and 850 temps. The gfs also had this track 2 days ago. I don't buy this as happenning (I've been burned too many times!!!) but the 0z gfs looks pretty darned good!!! Friday night looks very good for us to see snow flying-now Sunday/Monday looks better as well!! I at least have a shot!!!!

[frankthetank]

I was burned big time last year. Slept with my eyes open knowing (i thought) that i would wake up to 10inches or more of the white stuff...if memory serves me right, i woke up to an inch or so. What a let down! (that was last winter)...But sometimes, like the 6.5 we received back in Dec, was a total miss(on the low end!)...

...The snowpack (around 10inches on Sat) has really shrunk these past 2.5 days...A Pro-met on the other board was saying that he sees a not cold/but not warm pattern for most of the US (NE being coldest) down the road..and i have to agree with looking at the models(not much arctic air anywhere near US)...

I have to say that i hear you on the time being limited. You can really notice the difference up here with the light we've been gaining every day. It was 5 o'clock and i still didn't need the headlights.

Good luck on the snow...hopefully thats what falls, because that freezing rain is no fun!...