Wow, those tapes are awesome!!! I wasn't able to watch as much as I would like, but here are a few observations I've made...
1. It seems like our climate has changed...1)Arctic air had no problem filtering through Western Washington back in the 90s, 2) there was NO rainshadow, 3) and over-running events were VERY common. And the transition between arctic cold and warm, moist was alot LESS extreme than what we've experienced the past few years. Instead of going from 30s to 60s, you'd go from 20s to 40s...which eliminated all the flooding, etc.
2. There was so much coverage on the actual snow, but no meteorological analysis and detail about what was happening. THERE WAS NO EXPLANATION ON THE NOV. 1996...seemed like a BIG surprise for all of the meteorologists. And I never got a full understanding on what happened with the Dec. 1996 monster snowstorm. They mentioned NO arctic outbreak and very little information on the surface low tracking off the Washington coast.
3. The setup for lowland snow was much more common back in the 90s. And when the snow occurred, it was VERY widespread affecting almost all of Western Washington.
Hopefully we return to the 90s with the pattern of lowland snow events. I'll have more insite later on tonight...need to study for a Stat test.
Anthony
Pacific Northwest Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
TT-SEA
Anthony... good observations.
One comment though... there has always been a rain shadow. It is detemined by topography and I am sure the Olympic Mountains existed in 1996 (can anyone living here at that time verify this fact).
That was light-hearted sarcasm by the way
However... you have a point. I just learned during the last arctic outbreak (from a Spokane AFD) that a cold air dome essentially "masks" the mountains in an over-running situation. The warm air going up and over the cold dome produces snow and the cold air is so dense that enhancement or downsloping from the mountains is negated. The result is that the snow just falls uniformly to the ground.
A perfect example from the tape... there was a great deal of footage from North Bend and it showed some intense wind there. That was an easterly wind and should have caused downsloping and dried the air. But North Bend got as much (or more) snow than other places in Western Washington.
So technically you were wrong... in rain situations and even in snow situations that were not the over-running type... the rain shadow has existed for as long as the mountains have existed.
But essentially you were right about the December 1996 event.
One comment though... there has always been a rain shadow. It is detemined by topography and I am sure the Olympic Mountains existed in 1996 (can anyone living here at that time verify this fact).
That was light-hearted sarcasm by the way
However... you have a point. I just learned during the last arctic outbreak (from a Spokane AFD) that a cold air dome essentially "masks" the mountains in an over-running situation. The warm air going up and over the cold dome produces snow and the cold air is so dense that enhancement or downsloping from the mountains is negated. The result is that the snow just falls uniformly to the ground.
A perfect example from the tape... there was a great deal of footage from North Bend and it showed some intense wind there. That was an easterly wind and should have caused downsloping and dried the air. But North Bend got as much (or more) snow than other places in Western Washington.
So technically you were wrong... in rain situations and even in snow situations that were not the over-running type... the rain shadow has existed for as long as the mountains have existed.
But essentially you were right about the December 1996 event.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
I still insist that you guys are wrong on winter being over. TT's lucky forecasting streak will end soon. The big difference that the modes are picking up on is the much colder air that will build over Alaska. That alone says the remainder of the winter will be different, than what we have seen. That intense area of cold air is going to supress the ridge over the Pacific NW, as the 12z and 18z runs are showing. You guys have such short memories...It was just a few weeks ago that everyone was saying winter was over in the east, and look what happened. Even if we do not get an Arcitc event we will see a very active period with snow in the mountains. It is only late Jan for God's sake!
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
On the subject of the 90s....The 1990s were actually a low snow decade other than a couple of winters. I assure you that we are going to see better stuff than that in the coming years. How many times do I have to say that the late 1930s and early 40s were EVERY bit as warm as now, and the next step was a sharp and sudden cooling in 1946. Past history is clear that cold periods come swiftly and without warning. I figured out the total snowfall for every decade for the 1880s through the 1950s and found a very odd thing....The 1880s were the snowiest and the average went down every decade though the 40s. After that the 50s shot up to being as snowy as the 1890s. On a graph it shows a slow decline followed by a dramatic burst in the 50s. Another very strange thing...every decade since the 50s has seen a decline in snowfall also. The 50s were the snowiest the 90s the least snowy for the 50s through the 90s. Seems like a pattern if you ask me... A slow decline in snowfall followed by a major burst. Just something to think about, before you give up on all of this.
0 likes
Yeah I know what you mean Anthony about there being no technical explanation on the tapes. We would so be in the dark if there wasn't the internet! The TV Mets are just there to give the most basic forecast, and they didn't even know what was going on half the time, case in point the Nov 1996 storm. Notice on the forecast the night before all mets on TV were calling for a little snow above 500FT little to no accumulation, and quickly turn to rain. They were so increadibly wrong it was funny!!!! I had about a foot on the ground, downtown Seattle had up to 7" or more. Even early that morning notice Todd Johnson kept repeating, this should be ending soon with a warm up and rain........... NEVER DID!!!
I thought, (and was) way ahead of the game because I had "the noaa weather radio" That was good stuff back in the day!!
I thought, (and was) way ahead of the game because I had "the noaa weather radio" That was good stuff back in the day!!
0 likes
Snow-wizzard, do you have any historical data for Alaska temperatures? Because it seems a few times this winter, including today, I've noticed that when Barrow, AK has been warm we were cold and visa-versa. In 1957 on this day, Barrow reached their record high of 31 while we were at our record low of 9. Then in 1989 this day they had a record low of -49 and we were at 50. Again, this is completely unscientific but is just something I have noticed on a few occasions.
EDIT: When we were cold early in January, Barrow was very warm with a high of 32 one day.
EDIT: When we were cold early in January, Barrow was very warm with a high of 32 one day.
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
Wizzard... It took 70 years for the decline after the 1880's to turn around.
If that is true... and you are 100% correct in your theory... we could still be waiting until 2020 or 2030 for the turn around.
I don't know about you... but I am not going to get excited about a snowy period that COULD start in 15-25 years!!
If that is true... and you are 100% correct in your theory... we could still be waiting until 2020 or 2030 for the turn around.
I don't know about you... but I am not going to get excited about a snowy period that COULD start in 15-25 years!!
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Hey folks. I looked at the latest GFS 48hr and 60hr precip totals for early next week, and it does indeed look really wet...say around 2nd or 3rd of Feb. In fact, rain fall totals are an inch or more for 1st - 3rd. During this time, 500MB heights are 564 to around or at 570DM! Heights drop slightly to 558DM on the 3rd. 850MB heights are in the low-mid 1500M mark and temp around +3 to +6C. So my thinking is we can look for high temps in the mid 60`s. -- Andy
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Andrew...You remember what happend here after the -49 in Barrow on this date in 1989. A week later we were smashed by a brutal Arcitc blast. That's how it happens the cold builds in AK, and then moves down here.
TT...Is it not possible the cycle could be shortter this time, with the turnaround in the next few years? Nobody knows.
TT...Is it not possible the cycle could be shortter this time, with the turnaround in the next few years? Nobody knows.
0 likes
Wow, I'm addicted to those tapes R-Dub. Once again, I appreciate your time and effort. Your money will come shortly. What ever happened to John Miller with King 5? When did he leave? He kind of reminded me of Rich Marriot.
The December 1996 was a once-in-a-lifetime sort of storm...many factors went together to create such a monster. First off, not ALL of Western Washington experienced the two feet of snow I saw. To start, a STRONG surface low parked itself off the central Washington coast. At the same time, a frigid airmass was banked over southwest British Columbia. As the low continued to spin and stall, it filtered that arctic air through a majority of Western Washington...except areas south of Olympia. An interesting note...at one time during the storm, it was 12 F up in Bellingham, but 47 F in Pe Ell. Can you imagine? A 30 degree temperature change? As that low stalled, it continued to throw band-after-band of moisture into that layer of arctic air...and for some reason, areas right along the Olympic mountains saw enhancement...which never seems to happen anymore. Places such as Stanwood, Mukilteo, Edmonds and Everett saw the most from the storm...but places along the Strait of Juan Defuca saw very little. The low didn't track northeast, which would have brought warm, mild air...instead it did something rare and headed due west. It cut through the central Puget Sound, keeping temperatures JUST cold enough for snow north of Seattle...but there was a brief period where it turned to rain from Seattle south. The entire evolution of that storm was incredible. To be honest, we probably won't experience another one like that in our lifetime...but you never know.
The November 1996 was another interesting storm, and it did something similar to December 1996, but to a lesser extent. An unusual arctic airmass was centered over British Columbia in mid-November (which, by the way, is EXTREMELY rare) and banked up against the British Columbia mountains. A rapid, intensifying low pressure system moved from north to south then when it reached the columbia gorge, turned directly west...at the same time dragging that arctic air through Western Washington and producing a tremendous snowstorm. If I remember correctly, here in Mukilteo we had about 10-12 inches of snow. Pretty impressive for the middle of November, let alone the entire winter.
It's pretty amazing to see two big, snowstorms with the same scenarios playing over and over again happen in a single winter season. That's extremely rare, and may never happen again.
Another note, it seems arctic air has a harder time filtering through all of Western Washington today, as compared to the 90s. Today, arctic air gets stuck at the border and Bellingham only experiences the frigid weather. But in the 90s, every arctic outbreak...even without a surface low off the south Washington coast...filtered through ALL of Western Washington. Has our climate changed? I think it has. Another interesting note...storms came in from almost the due south back in the 90s...today then come in from the west...which creates a rainshadow for the majority of the lowlands. Another climate change? Or maybe a weather pattern shift?
Those are just a few notes. I still have TONS of watching to do, but unfortunately I have more homework to accomplish. I'll try to add more tonight, but if not I'll have more tomorrow afternoon.
Anthony
The December 1996 was a once-in-a-lifetime sort of storm...many factors went together to create such a monster. First off, not ALL of Western Washington experienced the two feet of snow I saw. To start, a STRONG surface low parked itself off the central Washington coast. At the same time, a frigid airmass was banked over southwest British Columbia. As the low continued to spin and stall, it filtered that arctic air through a majority of Western Washington...except areas south of Olympia. An interesting note...at one time during the storm, it was 12 F up in Bellingham, but 47 F in Pe Ell. Can you imagine? A 30 degree temperature change? As that low stalled, it continued to throw band-after-band of moisture into that layer of arctic air...and for some reason, areas right along the Olympic mountains saw enhancement...which never seems to happen anymore. Places such as Stanwood, Mukilteo, Edmonds and Everett saw the most from the storm...but places along the Strait of Juan Defuca saw very little. The low didn't track northeast, which would have brought warm, mild air...instead it did something rare and headed due west. It cut through the central Puget Sound, keeping temperatures JUST cold enough for snow north of Seattle...but there was a brief period where it turned to rain from Seattle south. The entire evolution of that storm was incredible. To be honest, we probably won't experience another one like that in our lifetime...but you never know.
The November 1996 was another interesting storm, and it did something similar to December 1996, but to a lesser extent. An unusual arctic airmass was centered over British Columbia in mid-November (which, by the way, is EXTREMELY rare) and banked up against the British Columbia mountains. A rapid, intensifying low pressure system moved from north to south then when it reached the columbia gorge, turned directly west...at the same time dragging that arctic air through Western Washington and producing a tremendous snowstorm. If I remember correctly, here in Mukilteo we had about 10-12 inches of snow. Pretty impressive for the middle of November, let alone the entire winter.
It's pretty amazing to see two big, snowstorms with the same scenarios playing over and over again happen in a single winter season. That's extremely rare, and may never happen again.
Another note, it seems arctic air has a harder time filtering through all of Western Washington today, as compared to the 90s. Today, arctic air gets stuck at the border and Bellingham only experiences the frigid weather. But in the 90s, every arctic outbreak...even without a surface low off the south Washington coast...filtered through ALL of Western Washington. Has our climate changed? I think it has. Another interesting note...storms came in from almost the due south back in the 90s...today then come in from the west...which creates a rainshadow for the majority of the lowlands. Another climate change? Or maybe a weather pattern shift?
Those are just a few notes. I still have TONS of watching to do, but unfortunately I have more homework to accomplish. I'll try to add more tonight, but if not I'll have more tomorrow afternoon.
Anthony
0 likes
Yeah I don't know if I will see that much snow here at my location that I had in Dec 1996 again.......... 26" was just incredible to see. Hope I do though!! Also thanks for the analysis and explantion Anthony! I was hoping you could tell what was different then now. Great job!!! 
Also yeah, I liked John Miller, much better then the clucks like Walter Kelly! I think he left around 2000 or so.
Also yeah, I liked John Miller, much better then the clucks like Walter Kelly! I think he left around 2000 or so.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Antohony...Did you read my posts today. You cannot say the climate has changed and will not change back. I will bet you $100.00 that wintin the next 5 years we will see the Arctic air again. Believe it or not, I do know a lot about this stuff. I have been studying it for over 20 years!
You will see that I know what I'm talking about.
You will see that I know what I'm talking about.
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
-
TT-SEA
More good observations Anthony.
I loved watching those tapes.
Brennan... I did not imply that Snow_Wizzard was a 2nd grader. He presented a scenario that if repeated would mean we would have to wait a LONG time for the pattern change.
Snow_Wizzard... yes the cycle could be shorter. Or the same length (that would suck). Or longer (that would REALLY suck).
Nice to see the GFS catching up to me on predicting the Pineapple Express coming next week!!
I loved watching those tapes.
Brennan... I did not imply that Snow_Wizzard was a 2nd grader. He presented a scenario that if repeated would mean we would have to wait a LONG time for the pattern change.
Snow_Wizzard... yes the cycle could be shorter. Or the same length (that would suck). Or longer (that would REALLY suck).
Nice to see the GFS catching up to me on predicting the Pineapple Express coming next week!!
0 likes
andycottle wrote:Hey Anthony... if my memory serves me right....think John Miller left sometime in 1994/95, though not exactly sure. I kinda liked seeing him do the weather. Bet Rich Marriot would know when he left. Oh how cool that would be to have Rich on this board!
-- Andy
John Miller was still around for the Dec 1996 storm, so it had to be after that. Don't know exactily when he left though.
I also thought Shannon O'Donnell knew her stuff, she was very level headed, and had almost the Rich Marriot feel about her. Much better looking then Rich though
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Well in my opinion, I think Rich is good looking person and also does weather just as well as Jeff Renner does. -- AndyWho is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests