Map showing possible mini Winter storm for Midwest

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

This map shows the current thinking based off all 00UTC model runs and trends along with compensition of my current thinking.



Sorry guys for the new thread, but I thought this would be best in it's own thread.

[sertorius]

Gothpunk-IL-WX:

Excellent map-yea, the 0Z GFS and NAM have really trended colder in thier soundings-the GFS by as much as 5 degrees celsius for Sunday from the 12Z and 18Z runs. I think I will see about 1-2 inches from this on Friday-Saturday. You can already see the prcip moving out of the south west on the radar-it is almost time to quit looking at models and begin watching temp. soundings and radars for the Friday event. By the way, the 0z GFS is a beauty for Eastern Kansas and Missouri for the Sunday/Monday event!!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Yea, I agree. I think at the current time that the new GFS is looking to favor St. Louis with up to 4-8 wet snow inches and or a nasty ice storm, much more favorable the the last model runs all day, so thats good news. I hope it all comes to full circle on my Birthday on Feburary 1st, and personally I believe that it's gonna surprise us and give us a good dumping, that may accually last more then a week. LOL But, let's not ruin our luck!! LOL

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

I always joke about the Emotioncons on this forum, but it's also wierd too. I call the smile emotioncon a light bulb head. Don't ask me why, I just do. I think it looks kinda like a light bulb. This is the smily When ever I see a I know snow is coming to my town. Sure enough 8 out of 10 times it's usually true. Go figure. It goes off topic a bit, but it is interesting.

[sertorius]

This area has been burned so many times (I know most people would say lucky!!!!!) with storms-I will believe it when I see it. I am still concerned with the cold air and how much of it there really is. I think it will be fine for the Friday/Saturday event. My hope is that once the low passes Saturday, it may draw down a little renforcing shot of cold air to keep things in good shape. If the storms track a bit further south, at least with this pattern, we may not get the warm air the gfs had when the low was going over St. Louis. Based on the 12Z Euro and 0z Gfs, this is now a storm that needs to be watched!!

[ssom04]

Oh man another miss on the map. I'm starting to think southern Minnesota will not break 15 inches of snow for the year. That would be 35 inches below average about....oh who cares its just white dots that fall from the sky. I wish we could just skip feb. and march and jump right into severe weather season ummm....

[frankthetank]

just saying a chance of a little snow here...i've got enough...good luck on the snow

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Here's the first accumulations map based off the latest NWS Guildance and Gut feelingas well as the NAM model which has really cool down it's temperatures to keep this event mainly frozen.

[NWIASpotter]

You may also want to keep in mind that areas of E SD/W IA are also expecting a possible 2-4 inches with the NWS guidance... Along with the latest models...

[sertorius]

NWIAspotter:

I would not be surprised that when it is all said and done that you guys will be in the sweet spot. I think that Gothpunk-Il-WX map is excellent based on the 0z data-however, the 06z data is of course different and less with the precip. I'm still not sure about the cold air and also, if you look at the radars this morning, all the action is in Texas-none of it really moved North that much from yesterday-will be interersting to see what the 12z models show. I am giving my students class work today so I can follow the models-man am I pathetic or what!!!! Cancel my radar comment-I just looked (it is my off hour-I swear!!) and there is precip exploding across Kansas as we speak-heading North East-most is prob. virga, but it will moisten the colum and cool it as well-this is about 12 hours earlier than guidence suggested!!!

[carve]

What do you see for central ohio out of this storm fri. sat.??

[sertorius]

Hey Gothpunlk-Il-WX:

Way to stick to your guns and not be bothered by the 06z runs-the 12z runs of both the GFS and NAM show your map to be right on target!! Excellent job!!!! I'll post some of my thoughts in the Lawrence/Kansas City thread-by the way, the radar is really lighting up in Kansas Currently!!