Strong cold air damming event in the Southeast next weekend.

[QCWx]

I'm not trying to scare anyone here...if I lived in Northern GA I'd start preparing for power interuptions.

[JenyEliza]

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1149 AM EST THU JAN 27 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-280900-BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DOUGLAS-FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HEARD-HENRY-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JONES-LAMAR-
LUMPKIN-MADISON-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MORGAN-MURRAY-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-TALIAFERRO-TOWNS-TROUP-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILKES
-1149 AM EST THU JAN 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAYAFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WEST POINT TO THOMASTON TO SANDERSVILLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD CANADIAN AIR SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WINTER WEATHER. LATER DEVELOPMENTS...SUCH AS THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...WILL DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

JD/SN

[Anonymous]

Hey SF - great job on this topic. You may not have to go very far to see possible accumulation this Saturday. COLUMBIA, just an hour from us, is already looking into it:


SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60
PERCENT.

Better than I thought. POP's appear to be coming up............

I will be there early............

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
MUCH COOLER AIRMAS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.

GFS BRINGS MOISTURE IN QUICKER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
LOOKS A LITTLE FAST. BOTH MODELS HAVE COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WILL TRY TO BLEND PRECIPITATION
TIMING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA
GENEALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A SUMTER...COLUMBIA...AUGUSTA LINE. PCPN
SHOULD BE NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER LATE FRI NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA SAT. PCPN FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A MIXTURE OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONES.
GFS INDICATING SOME THICKNESS WARMING SAT EVENING AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

Ken

[JenyEliza]

I'm not trying to scare anyone here...if I lived in Northern GA I'd start preparing for power interuptions.

Already prepared....just need to fill up the propane tank, pick up bread, milk, snacks and soda....and we're ready. My hurricane kit doubles as a winter weather kit too.

[DLI2k5]

I hope by this weekend we will all get some snow! If we can't get all snow, then i'd love more sleet than freezing rain. Want as little power interruptions as possible and don't want any major hazards for drivers on the roads! Just be safe everyone, take caution and please heed any advisories, warnings or watches.

[tedryan]

Ok,

It has been driving me nuts trying to remember the date of the Atlanta Ice Storm I remembered as a kid. How could one forget! No power or school for a week. Trees down everywhere.

I thought it was 1971, but have seen several posts noting it as happening in 1974. Being the historian that I am, I had to find out the actual dates. We were all wrong. Below are some abstracts from web searches with associated links for those that want to follow up.

January 8, 1973 -
a severe ice storm stuck Atlanta, GA. The storm paralyzed the city. Damage from the storm was estimated at $25 million. One to four inches of ice coated northern Georgia, leaving 300,000 people without electricity for up to a week.

From Intellicast.

http://www.intellicast.com/Almanac/Southeast/January/


1973... A severe icestorm struck Atlanta GA. The storm paralyzed the city closing schools and businesses, and damage from the storm was estimated at 25 million dollars. One to four inches of ice coated northern Georgia leaving 300,000 persons without electricity for up to a week. Between 7 PM and 9 PM on the 7th, 2.27 inches (liquid content) of freezing rain, sleet and snow coated Atlanta, as the temperature hovered at 32 degrees. (7th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

http://wzzm13.com/wxalmanacdefault.asp? ... ticleid=90

Interesting document at NOAA.GOV on the trends for the month of January, 1973.

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/101 ... 4-0381.pdf

[AnthonyC]

This looks to be a significant ice event for Atlanta. I wouldn't be surprised if parts of Atlanta...esp. areas north and east...picked up OVER two inches of ICE. The GFS model tends to have a dry/cold bias, and they are probably underplaying the amount of moisture. Places such as Athens might even begin as snow...albeit it won't last long. Very interesting event for north and central Georgia over the weekend. People who live in Atlanta...keep us updated...that's if you still have power.

Anthony

[Anonymous]

Does look like NWS AFD's show the closest to my area to receive ice accretion would be just west of Columbia, between there and the upstate. Upstate SC expects heavy ice accumulation possible, Columbia ZR/IP early SAT, then cold rain late afternoon. Mostly a cold rain is expected closer to the coastal sections, although it may begin as a mixture of ZR/IP at the onset for Dorchester/Berkeley counties, about 20 miles inland. I expect mostly a cold rain along the immediate coastal areas around MT.Pleasant/Sullivan's Island/ downtown...etc. Timing is still an issue; if it starts early enough SAT we could see some minor icing in inland coastal counties as temps are expected to be around 28 to 30F early SAT morning. If it begins after 10:00 AM SAT, it will likely just be cold rain in all of eastern SC.

So the best prospects for some ice accretion closest to my area will likely just be west of Columbia, about 40 miles west of there.

Will update again later..............

[DLI2k5]

Hey there Ken.......So, what are the prospects for snow looking like, earlier you had posted something in regards to that. Still the same maybe for the onset of the event?

[JenyEliza]

This looks to be a significant ice event for Atlanta. I wouldn't be surprised if parts of Atlanta...esp. areas north and east...picked up OVER two inches of ICE. The GFS model tends to have a dry/cold bias, and they are probably underplaying the amount of moisture. Places such as Athens might even begin as snow...albeit it won't last long. Very interesting event for north and central Georgia over the weekend. People who live in Atlanta...keep us updated...that's if you still have power.

Anthony

We're heading out to BJ's warehouse to stock up in just a few minutes. Whatever we need will be bought, put away, and our "winter room" (the living room near the gas log fireplace) will need to be set up. Then we'll be ready for whatever comes.

I'll post all weekend (as long as there's power). It does look interesting (and scary) to say the least.

Jeny

[AnthonyC]

Jeny,

If current projections are correct, Atlanta could see moderate freezing rain/sleet from late Friday evening thru late Saturday evening...that's almost 24 hours of some sort of freezing precip. If temperatures are cold enough at higher altitudes, you may begin as snow...but once that deep, gulf moisture overrides the cold airmass, it will quickly change to freezing rain/sleet. But a quick dusting, inch of snow is not out of the question. Make the most with this event...it could be the only winter situation Atlanta experiences.

Anthony

[Anonymous]

Hey there Ken.......So, what are the prospects for snow looking like, earlier you had posted something in regards to that. Still the same maybe for the onset of the event?

At the moment prospects look still about the same - precip should begin as a mixture of ZR/IP and maybe some snow at the precip onset, especially near and just west of Columbia (if before 10:00AM). Most runs of the GFS at 7:00hrs SAT show light precip moving into southern and central SC, heading north and NE. Only problem with GFS it makes it too progressive WRT to high over NE (shoving it east too quickly), as well as the frz line too far north. The high will likely remain further north and west of there through SAT, plus the frz line at 85h will also be further south than indicated by GFS runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

The ETA runs through 12zSAT all show the 0C 85h line smack down well into SC, supporting frz precip type SAT morning in the central part:

http://weather.unisys.com/eta/4panel/eta_850_4panel.gif


Certainly something to watch as we close in on the event.............

[JenyEliza]

Jeny,

If current projections are correct, Atlanta could see moderate freezing rain/sleet from late Friday evening thru late Saturday evening...that's almost 24 hours of some sort of freezing precip. If temperatures are cold enough at higher altitudes, you may begin as snow...but once that deep, gulf moisture overrides the cold airmass, it will quickly change to freezing rain/sleet. But a quick dusting, inch of snow is not out of the question. Make the most with this event...it could be the only winter situation Atlanta experiences.

Anthony

Thanks, Anthony. I've resigned myself to the fact it will likely be a freezing rain/sleet situation, which will cause power outages and possible property damage. It is what it is (or will be).

Not much I can do about it....so we're as prepared as we can be. I've done our shopping (before the crowds hit the stores tomorrow/tomorrow night), we've got propane for the grill, our gas fireplace is ready to go, battery operated lanterns, TV/Wx radio is tested and ready, yada yada.

The advantage (if there is one) to living somewhere that gets both winter weather AND hurricanes is that a hurricane kit doubles as a winter weather kit. Our hurricane kit was plenty re-stocked for Ivan/Jeanne, et al this summer---so I mostly had to restock the items that needed refreshing.

So....here we go...freezing rain, sleet, snow...whatever, I'm ready. Not looking forward to being without power (and we lost power last weekend with the high winds so its pretty likely this weekend w/ice), but we'll just make the most of it.

I've gotten our living room ready (that's where the gas fireplace is). Comforters, pillows, lanterns, battery powered DVD player for the kids....it'll be like a camp-out for them. Even if there's no snow for them to play in, they'll have a blast. Me...? I can think of better things to do on a weekend.

Anywho...thanks for the updates...please keep 'em coming. I like KNOWING what's coming down the pike.

I'm READY.

Jen

[JenyEliza]

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1149 AM EST THU JAN 27 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-280900-BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DOUGLAS-FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HEARD-HENRY-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JONES-LAMAR-
LUMPKIN-MADISON-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MORGAN-MURRAY-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-TALIAFERRO-TOWNS-TROUP-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILKES
-1149 AM EST THU JAN 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAYAFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WEST POINT TO THOMASTON TO SANDERSVILLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD CANADIAN AIR SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WINTER WEATHER. LATER DEVELOPMENTS...SUCH AS THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...WILL DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

JD/SN

So, does anyone know when we should expect to see this WATCH turned into a WARNING?

Jeny

[QCWx]

You'll have a warning probably by time the early morning discussions come out, at the very latest it'll be during the mid morning shift.

Hey, at least if it's a sleet storm that makes for awesome sledding!

[JenyEliza]

You'll have a warning probably by time the early morning discussions come out, at the very latest it'll be during the mid morning shift.

Hey, at least if it's a sleet storm that makes for awesome sledding!

You were right! We're under Winter Storm Warning this morning, and watches go on up through SC and NC, so your turn's coming (I hope).

Let's pray for sleet!! Sleet is the best for sledding,and it's less dangerous in terms of power outages and property damage!

Jeny

[Anonymous]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
350 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
THE EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THRU SAT. AIRMASS IS
VERY DRY AT THIS TIME...DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO NORTHERN
SECTIONS TO NEAR 20 SOUTH SECTIONS. MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AND
WILL LIKELY SEE A LOT OF VIRGA THRU TONIGHT.

WILL USE A BLEND OF SREF...GFS/NAM MODELS FOR PCPN TIMING. PCPN
SHOULD SPREAD JUST N OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY SAT MORNING AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME... IT LOOKS PCPN WILL START AS A MIXTURE OF MAINLY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AND CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN LATE SAT NIGHT. THE
CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING SAT. AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE
EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND .25 INCH. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
WARNING LIMITS...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA NEXT TO OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. WILL LOWER MAX TEMP FOR SAT
TO LOCAL FORECAST GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT
TEMP FORECAST. POPS BECOME CATEGORICAL SAT AND CONTINUE SAT
NIGHT.

FXUS62 KCHS 280712
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2005

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THRU SAT/...STRONG HIGH PRES WEDGE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA TO PERSIST...CREATING A MODERATE TO STRONG NE FLOW
AND AS A RESULT SOME CHILLY TO COLD WX.

STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE ATLC TO AFFECT MAINLY GA TODAY...BUT WITH
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR CLOUDY DAY ALL LOCATIONS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 40S. LARGE DEWPT GRADIENT TO OCCUR...RANGING FROM NEAR 10
DEGREES N TO MID 30S S. RESULT WILL BE FOR DRY WX MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT WITH POPS TRENDING UPWARDS TO SCATTERED RANGE
EXTREME S AREAS LATE AS SOME OVERRUNNING RAINS GET UNDERWAY.

THE PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT/EARLY SAT REGARDS THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY
AIR VERSUS THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE S AND SW WITH
OVERRUNNING. LOOKS LIKE FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE A RAIN MAKER
AS ACTIVITY OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM S-SW TO N-NE TONIGHT AND SAT.
BUT DEWPTS AND WET BULB TEMPS LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LITTLE SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FAR W AND N SECTIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EVENTUALLY
VEERING TO E AND SE TONIGHT/SAT...DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND
DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE BUILDUP AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING...COVERING THE
AREA ROUGHLY NW OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO RIDGEVILLE...TO
WALTERBORO AND HAMPTON IN SC...THEN CONTINUING TO SYLVANIA AND BUTTS
IN GA.

WILL TREND POPS UP FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT THRU EARLY SAT...KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY S AND CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT /20 PERCENT OR
LESS FAR N TO 60-80 PERCENT FAR S/...THEN INCREASING TO LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS SAT. TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING FAR N TO 36-40 S...THEN ONLY RISING MAINLY INTO THE 40S ON
SAT.