Winter Forecast for North Texas

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CaptinCrunch
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#141 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Jan 09, 2005 10:41 pm

LOTS OF CONCERN IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. SOME MODELS INDICATE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TEENS OR SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHILE OTHERS ARE
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IF THE
AIRMASS HEADS STRAIGHT FOR NORTH TEXAS THEN IT WILL BE VERY COLD!!
OTHERWISE...IF IT BACKDOORS IN... THEN NOT AS COLD.
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#142 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:21 am

1.) THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP.
THIS WILL CHANGE LATE TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
SATURATED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY WHEN THE TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH...WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Ok, the NWS is saying that we have a good chance of precip on Wednesday at least 50% +.

2.) THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MODELS TENDENCY TO NOT
BE FAST ENOUGH WITH SHALLOW COLD POOLS...IT COULD INDEED MAKE IT TO
THE RED RIVER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TUESDAY...BECOMING
STATIONARY BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER SUPPORT.

Here they are concerned about the GFS models and how they have been handeling the shallow cold air at the surface (they haven't) it may sneak in early ahead of the precip?

3.) THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY COLD AS WE
RECEIVE SEVERAL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW...PRECIP CHANCES STILL REMAIN SLIM.

The model's are still about 50/50 on the runs, half want to push the colder air off to the east and we will receive the backend of the cold air which will not be as cold (low 40's rather than 30's) and the others have it coming straight in all the way to the coast which will be VERY COLD high's at or below freezing? This will also be a 2 part effect the first on Wednesday and the other on Sunday. Right now the only precip chances I can see will be late Monday night and Tuesday when a weak disturbance moves across NTX and right now the temps look to still be cold.
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#143 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:35 am

DISCUSSION...
333 AM CST

COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL EASE ACROSS THE RED RIVER
THIS MORNING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BEFORE PULLING BACK
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FEEL THE RUC HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. THIS HAS MADE THE FORECAST RATHER TRICKY IN THAT
REGION WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY TODAY. DO
NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE DALLAS...FORT WORTH AREA...BUT
WILL GET EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.

THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SPEED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BRINGING US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE EAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD...BRINGING US CHILLY TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE RED
RIVER...TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
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#144 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 12, 2005 9:26 am

DISCUSSION...
430 AM CST

MP FRONT RACING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH VIGOROUS
UPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING INTO THE PLAINS...WILL INDUCE STRONG S/SW
WINDS TODAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TREMENDOUS CAP APPROACHING 20C AT 850MB. LIKELY INSURMOUNTABLE...
THOUGH SOME WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE BL...SEE LITTLE HOPE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
EITHER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL...BUT FAVOR ETA WHICH
GENERATES PRECIP EASTERN ZONES BEFORE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS DECENT BUT WITHOUT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL
NOT LIKELY BE REALIZED...EXCEPT IN EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. SEE HWOFWD FOR MORE DETAILS.

MP AIR CHILLY BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD. RETURN FLOW MAY BEGIN AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY...BUT COOL START WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN DESPITE
SUNSHINE. BACKDOOR COOL AIR SAT/SUN WILL PREVENT WARM-UP THIS
WEEKEND...AS RECIRCULATED AIR FROM CP AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
QUITE COOL. SNOWCOVER THIN BUT WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO PREVENT MODERATING. REINFORCING FRONT MONDAY YIELDING COLD
MEX TEMPS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A SIMILAR GLANCING BLOW. RIDGING
IN ADVANCE OF CUT-OFF MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK MAY FINALLY BOOST MERCURY.
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#145 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 12, 2005 5:24 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER VORT MAX OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES TO ASSUME MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT...IN
RESPONSE TO PHASING OF TWO SEPARATE VORTICES SEEN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO BECOME FOCUSED
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A RAPID
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF BOTH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CURRENT LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM KGYI SOUTHWARD TO KDFW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE TRUE PACIFIC FRONT
FROM KLAW/KDUC...SOUTHWARD TO JUST WEST OF KLUD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL PVA...COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED THE INVERSION THAT WAS
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. THUS...WE WILL USE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF FORCING...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 55-65
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/NGM/GFS IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A MIXTURE OF NORTH PACIFIC AND CANADIAN
AIR TO FILTER INTO TEXAS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
POSTFRONTAL STRATUS ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW AND LACKING THE UPPER SUPPORT NECESSARY FOR A STRONG
SOUTHWARD SURGE. NONETHELESS...WE WILL FORECAST A BRIEF FRONTAL
INTRUSION INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY...BEFORE A
STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLONE ALLOWS THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
OUTPUT FROM THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF...WE WILL NOT COOL
TEMPERATURES TOO DRASTICALLY AT THIS TIME. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW APPROACHING ALASKA FROM THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
PERHAPS A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...
WITH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT DRY AT THIS TIME.
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#146 Postby gboudx » Wed Jan 12, 2005 6:01 pm

Well, so much for that "tremendous cap" the NWS said we would have in place. We have severe weather at my house. Pouring rain, wind blowing like crazy and frequent lightning.

CaptinCrunch wrote:DISCUSSION...
430 AM CST

TREMENDOUS CAP APPROACHING 20C AT 850MB. LIKELY INSURMOUNTABLE...
THOUGH SOME WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE BL...SEE LITTLE HOPE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
EITHER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL...BUT FAVOR ETA WHICH
GENERATES PRECIP EASTERN ZONES BEFORE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS DECENT BUT WITHOUT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL
NOT LIKELY BE REALIZED...EXCEPT IN EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. SEE HWOFWD FOR MORE DETAILS.
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#147 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jan 13, 2005 11:44 am

NWS FTW
DISCUSSION...
430 AM CST THUR 13 2005

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO EAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE DAY. WILL EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE QUIET THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE INVASION OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO NORTH
TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE NORTH TEXAS WILL NOT GET THE FULL EXTENT OF THE
COLD AIR AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND ALLOWS THE COLD AIR TO BACKDOOR IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...NORTH TEXAS IS IN FOR A MAJOR COOL DOWN FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20 AND LOWER 30S THE NEXT
SEVERAL MORNINGS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY WITH ONGOING COLD
AIR ADVECTION BUT CLEARING SKIES. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO MOS
NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. TEMPS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE
REST OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID
50S. LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
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#148 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:56 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 AM CST WED JAN 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRY NW FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE NOT MUCH COOLER THAN IN
ADVANCE...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A TAD COOLER. IN ANY EVENT...THE TROUGH
WILL MAINLY JUST BRING A WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA TODAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT NEW GFS AND EURO MODELS NOW ONCE AGAIN BRING A WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS N TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING. FEEL ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR SOME
PRECIP TO BE AROUND AND THUS HAVE RE-INTRODUCED POPS TO N TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOW BRING MORE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THIS FROPA INTO N TEXAS
AS H5 FLOW BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH THIS NEW FEATURE...AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW PACK
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES MID-WEEK.
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#149 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:45 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005


.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH VERY LIMITED MIXING
TONIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOG IS MORE
LIKELY TO BECOME DENSE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOS HAS NOT CAUGHT ONTO THE IDEA OF FOG TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS. A WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...HOWEVER
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL BE NOTED.

MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA DESPITE THE DRASTIC CHANGE IN PROGS FROM
JUST A DAY AGO. IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK REX BLOCK WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST WHICH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. UPPER LOW BY THIS TIME WILL BE
WEAK AND WILL NOT PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO INDUCE DEEP RETURN
FLOW TO PRODUCE RAINFALL...SO DRY/FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.

IN THE MEANTIME...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT POLAR HIGH WILL BEGIN TO DIVE
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOMORROW...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS RAIN-FREE SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD THERMAL
ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20
TO 30 MPH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY...AND WILL PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROGS AND THEREFORE HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY DRY
SURFACE AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED...SO SOME TEENS FOR LOW TEMPS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUTLYING AREAS WHICH USUALLY RADIATE
BETTER.
RAPID MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY DUE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL A WEEK FROM TOMORROW WHEN A SPLIT FLOW UPPER
PATTERN DEVELOPS AND ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.


Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 55. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24. North wind between 10 and 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 43. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
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#150 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:20 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005


.SHORT TERM...
ENJOY THE BALMY SPRING-LIKE WX TODAY...BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE
ROLLER COASTER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
PATTERN STAYS STATIC (UPPER LOW OVER BAJA TRAPPED UNDERNEATH OMEGA
BLOCK RIDGE OVER SWRN U.S...DEEP TROUGH CENTRAL/ERN CONUS)...ARCTIC
AIR ALREADY SEEN PLOWING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS ATTM. WITH
NIGHTFALL...THIS BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ONLY PICK UP SPEED AND
ARRIVE INTO NRN PTNS OF N TX (INCLUDING D/FW) BY DAYBREAK WITH GUSTY
NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. HIGHS TO OCCUR SOMETIME DURING
THE MORNING...THEN DEEPER ARCTIC ARRIVES BY AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
ONE POSITIVE ASPECT OF THE FCST WILL BE A DRY FCST AND NO WINTER
WX...AS CRITICAL MSTR LAYER BELOW 700 MB REMAINS DRY WITH MAINLY
DENSE CIRRUS OFF AND ON OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCES LOOK TO PICK UP ON
COLD SUN MORNING LOWS...BUT LOOK TO MIX TOO DEEPLY IN ARCTIC AIR
WHICH SHOULD BE 3-4 KFT DEEP MOST AREAS...SO HAVE UNDERCUT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY BY A GOOD 5-0 DEGREES. AT LEAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT...
WINDS SHOULD REALLY SLACKEN UP AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
GAUGING WARM UP ON MON TRICKY...AS SOME MODEST WAA OCCURS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER TOP OF ARCTIC AIR. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
STRONG WILL SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER RIDGE BE AND HOW QUICKLY WILL
FRONTAL INVERSION WEAKEN AND MODIFY? FOR NOW...LEFT A WARM UP INTO
THE 50S...BUT FEEL ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES
THAT MUST OCCUR. STRENGTH OF SWLY LOW LVL FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE
ADIABATIC WARMING WILL PLAY A ROLE AS WELL...IF STRONG ENOUGH.
MODELS ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING OF UPPER RIDGE OVER N TX TUES/WED
WITH NICE WARM UP AGAIN...AS BAJA LOW FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY
WLYS. AGAIN...MSTR TOO MEAGER AND DON/T EXPECT ANY RAINFALL WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH WEAK FRONT
THURS...THEN STRONGER COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND IF GFS HOLDS TRUE.
DISTURBANCE LATE FRI MAY HAVE ENOUGH MSTR E OF I-35 FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
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#151 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jan 25, 2005 3:49 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
242 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005


.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO
SPREAD OVER NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER TO THE WEST WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH A FAIR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE SATURDAY BEFORE
WEATHER MAKER #2 (MUCH STRONGER AND MORE DYNAMIC) ARRIVES SUNDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROBLEMATIC...LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A PROBLEM FORECASTING ITS TRACK ACROSS THE
STATE. YESTERDAYS GFSLR WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH (ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS) THAN TODAYS (ALONG AND DOWN I-20). HOWEVER...TODAYS ECMWF
DOES NOT EVEN EJECT THE UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS...BUT DOES MOVE A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LIKE THE CURRENT UKMET DOES. FOR
THESE REASONS...SUNDAY POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW (THEY MIGHT GO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS
MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT).

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A FEW
STORMS FRIDAY DUE TO 500MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND -20C. SUNDAY
LOOKS MUCH BETTER DUE TO STRONG JET AND DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
STATE...MINIMUM LI/S...AND AN INCREASE IN CAPES (UP TO 500 J/KG)
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL BE MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD.
HEIGHT FALLS/RISES ALOFT... TRANSITIONAL BOUNDARIES AND BAROCLINIC
ZONES... CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE... ALL WILL TAKE A
TOLL ON DIURNAL TRENDS. 1000-850 THICKNESSES AND LOCAL 850 TEMP
STUDY WERE USED TO DETERMINE MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THIS FORECAST.
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#152 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:15 am

NWS FTW TX
.DISCUSSION...
400 AM CST

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY...HOWEVER STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND WE WILL SEE SOME OF THIS MODIFIED POLAR AIR GRADUALLY
BACKDOOR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LOW
LEVEL COLD THERMAL ADVECTION COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS
AND LIMITED DIURNAL RANGES IN MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TO FORCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ALSO BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TX
COAST WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY TOMORROW. ETA APPEARS
ERRONEOUS BY WASHING OUT THE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE TX COAST TOO
SOON AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER OVER OUR AREA BECAUSE IT DOES
NOT SHOW THE DIVERGENT/WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WOULD BE IN PLACE.
HAVE BLENDED GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

SECONDARY AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER TEXAS ON SUNDAY WITH
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH TEXAS.
RETURN FLOW WILL LIFT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY...AND WARMER TEMPS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN. MODEL TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION BUT GFS INDICATES BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EAST
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

MODELS TONIGHT ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS WITH
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS MEANS A
PERSISTENT COOLER THAN NORMAL FORECAST LOOKS BEST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERRUNNING RAINS.
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#153 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jan 27, 2005 4:51 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
223 PM CST THU JAN 27 2005


.DISCUSSION...
STRONG WAA OVER SHALLOW COLD FRONT AS COUPLED WITH PVA FROM WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO ALL OF N TEXAS TODAY. RAIN
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES BUT YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS
SOME LIMITED LIFT ACROSS THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND NOMOGRAMS
SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET ACROSS A FEW FAR NE
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. DO NOT EXPECT TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH ANY MIXING SLEET...BUT
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE WATCH.
SOME WEAK
LIFT TO LINGER ACROSS N TEXAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEXT
BIG CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS H5 WAVE MOVES CLOSER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT RETURNS AS WARM
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. 00Z GFS AND 12GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON
BRINGING H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SW STATES INTO N TEXAS. WL LEAN
MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z RUN AS IT IS CLOSER TO ECMWF. THE SLOWER
SOLUTION SHOULD STILL BRING AN UNSETTLED...YET NOT A
WASH-OUT...WEATHER PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


Current Temp is 41 with light to mod rain, will light the Fireplace when I get home. :D
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#154 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2005 3:17 pm

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
157 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005


AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...
CLEBURNE...BONHAM LINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AROUND TUESDAY AT NOON
AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE DFW METROPLEX NEAR MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE
BONHAM AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
FROM THE WEST BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW ENDING IN
THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN THE AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND TO
SHERMAN. AT THIS TIME THE DFW METROPLEX WILL SEE SOME WINTER
WEATHER...BUT UNCERTAINTIES IN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION MEANS THAT
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STORM IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. STAY ALERT FOR UPDATES BECAUSE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS
CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY.

TXZ091>094-100>105-115>120-129>133-141-010400-
COLLIN TX-COMANCHE TX-COOKE TX-DALLAS TX-DENTON TX-EASTLAND TX-
ERATH TX-FANNIN TX-GRAYSON TX-HOOD TX-HUNT TX-JACK TX-JOHNSON TX-
MONTAGUE TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-ROCKWALL TX-SOMERVELL TX-
STEPHENS TX-TARRANT TX-WISE TX-YOUNG TX-
157 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH TX HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Mon Jan 31, 2005 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#155 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2005 3:28 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 AM CST MON JAN 31 2005


.UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER ALL WEEKEND...AND THIS PUTS COUNTIES
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO PARIS IN LINE FOR SOME SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY UP TO TWO INCHES EASTLAND AND YOUNG COUNTIES
DIMINISHING TO A TRACE OR SO COMANCHE...METROPLEX...PARIS. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AROUND NOON TUESDAY AND SPREAD EAST TO THE
METROPLEX NEAR MIDNIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF SNOW AREAS EXPECTED AS WELL...A VERY WET SYSTEM.
WILD CARD IS HOW MUCH THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THE RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IF WE GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH WE COULD COOL OFF FASTER
AND CHANGEOVER WILL BE EARLIER THAN OVERNIGHT IN METROPLEX. MORE TO
COME WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

DECIDED TO GO WITH WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AS STRONG LEFT FRONT JET MAX
MOVES ACROSS. WITH GFS/ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATING ALL SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD...AND GARCIA
METHOD INDICATING 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECAUSE OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOVER
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...TOO CLOSE TO CALL AND FEEL THAT
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED. FYI...NCEP HPC SNOW
ACCUMULATION PRODUCT PRODUCING 40-70% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
4 INCHES FROM STERLING CITY TO ALBANY. IF CONVECTION BREAKS OUT...
AND TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COLDER THAN FORECAST...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
MAY BE HIGHER.
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#156 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 31, 2005 3:34 pm

CC, got any predictions on accumulation amounts? Since the last time this happened(just before xmas), we were only supposed to see trace amounts; I'll say 1-2 inches at my house in Rockwall.
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#157 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2005 3:40 pm

I don't think so, THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER LINE WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WAXAHACHIE TO
PARIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. That would put Rockwall just out of the line to the east. But we will see :D

1 to 3 inches with the bigger accumulations in Tarrant Co.
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#158 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2005 3:44 pm

Special Weather Statement

WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005


TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-312300-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1225 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM
OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO WEST TEXAS BY LATE
TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD
CANADIAN AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THE RAIN
WILL BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER LINE WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WAXAHACHIE TO
PARIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE...THE
TIME OF CHANGEOVER...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLICATE THE WINTER WEATHER FORECAST.

SOME INTERSTATE TRAVEL THAT COULD BE IMPACTED INCLUDE INTERSTATE 20
WEST OF DALLAS...INTERSTATE 35 NORTH OF DALLAS AND FORT WORTH...AND
INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN DALLAS AND SULPHUR SPRINGS. PERSONS PLANNING
TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD LISTEN FOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
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#159 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 31, 2005 4:06 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:I don't think so, THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER LINE WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WAXAHACHIE TO
PARIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. That would put Rockwall just out of the line to the east. But we will see :D

1 to 3 inches with the bigger accumulations in Tarrant Co.


That's the beauty of systems like this. We could see all rain or 2 inches of snow. And we may not even know until the event has started.
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#160 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2005 4:21 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005


.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. COOL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AT SURFACE...AND WITH COOLING ALOFT IN UPPER TROF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE...CLEBURNE...BONHAM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ABOUT TWO
INCHES TO POSSIBLE LOCALLY FOUR INCHES WILL FALL NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM EASTLAND TO SHERMAN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF AT THE
LINE DESCRIBED ABOVE.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WILD CARDS AT WORK HERE. NUMBER ONE...THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES IN TONIGHTS AND TOMORROWS RUNS...CHANGEOVER WILL BE
EARLIER AND THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH MORE
ACCUMULATION.
NUMBER TWO...MODELS ARE SHOWING INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD LIFT IN
THE LAYER FROM 15000 TO 30000 FEET ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN AREAS
BECAUSE OF THIS. IF THE INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT IS MORE
PRONOUNCED A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR AND THIS
WILL ALSO COOL THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKER AND CHANGEOVER WILL BE
EARLIER. IF CHANGEOVER OCCURS WHILE IT IS STILL THUNDERING WITH
HEAVIER PRECIP...MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING
THE DFW METROPLEX AND POINTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEST
AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR EAST.
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