Southern Plains

[aggiecutter]

next week and beyond. Looks like there "could be" a major winter event in the works for sometime the middle of next week, or the weekend. The 12z GFS Ensembles, and it has support from the EURO, has the Polar jet coming down into the southern plains. If the low off the baja ejects out the middle part of the next week, then there could be a major phasing situation in the southern plains. If it only comes out in bits and pieces, then the event would somewhat less dramatic. BTW, the 12z EURO has a pretty strong area of high pressure(1041) coming down the plains on day 7. The table could be set for a major winter storm. The variable being whether the low off the baja comes out, or in pieces.

12z GFS Ensembles

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12612.html

[southerngale]

How far south in the Southern Plains?

[aggiecutter]

I just went and read Bastardi's column, and he is calling for a major winter storm in the southern plains-deep south the middle of next week. He does have support from several models.

[southerngale]

I just went and read Bastardi's column, and he is calling for a major winter storm in the southern plains-deep south the middle of next week. He does have support from several models.

Awesome! I hope he and those models are right!

[Kelarie]

Me too! Would like to see something other than 70 degree days.

[CaptinCrunch]

This is the last paragraph of the Forecast Discussion...
425 AM CST

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
CHANCE POPS WERE UTILIZED. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER AND WILL INDUCE RETURN FLOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE WENT WELL ABOVE MEX MOS FOR TEMPS...
MORE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ETA. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY...QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND A COOL FRONT.
GENERALLY KEPT THE TEMPS NEAR MEX/CLIMO WITH LITTLE MODERATION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO REINFORCING SURGES OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE. UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
OVERRUNNING RAIN NEXT WEEK...BUT DECIDED TO PULL THEM BASED ON NEW
GFS/ECMWF RUNS WHICH SHOW DEEPER COLD AIR AND MORE UPPER RIDGING.

Just based on the last part you could only hope for a slight chance of freezing precip late next week across NTX.

[sertorius]

Currently, I'm focused on Friday/Saturday and Sunday/Monday for my area-esp. Friday-looks like I could see 2-4 inches. I did notice that the 12Z GFS is quite a bit different in the 240 time frame than previous runs-we shall see-maybe I was wrong-maybe winter will make a visit to the plains after all between now and March (I'm still skeptical!!-Been burned too many times by snow storms here )

[jeff]

Could be interesting the next 2 weeks over TX. Decent ice and sleet chances over W, C, and N TX at times next week (maybe). Much colder progged for the following week with moisture lingering around on the active sub-tropical flow.

Overall pattern is cooler and wetter, fine details which is what everybody wants to know right now will fall in as the time draws closer.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bastardi (for what it's worth) thinks something big will happen by this time next week for an area from Midland to Fayetteville, Arkansas and then further south into the next week with well below temps.

Both the NWS and Accuweather have us cool for next week this far out. I wonder if their number are conservative?

[aggiecutter]

12z Ensembles phase the baja low and Polar jet in the southern plains on day 9. At the very least, the pattern from mid-week( next week) til mid-February is very favorable for ice and snow in the southern plains and Texas.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12712.html

[ETXHAMXYL]

What are the dates for this possible event? This Bastardi guy missed the last time he thought we were going to get hit with the artic blast, but the NWS was correct and had it off to our east and we only got a backdoor cold for only a short period of time.
Does this look like an extended stay cold? I thought we were to go zonal through most of FEB?
I have seen the NWS has us in the long range to be below normal temps and above normal precp...but then again they change often and forget Accuweather one day its snow and then its out of there.
I say Texas weather can't be predicted unless its summer then you know it will be hot and dry or hot and humid but no rain.
Most of the winter predictions happen after the fact.
Our last snow here in NTX was Valentines day last year and it was warm enough for me to go take snow pictures without a coat..and with a few hours it was well into the 40's and wet grass.
Are you saying that we might get a repeat around the 14th?

[southerngale]

Could be interesting the next 2 weeks over TX. Decent ice and sleet chances over W, C, and N TX at times next week (maybe). Much colder progged for the following week with moisture lingering around on the active sub-tropical flow.

Overall pattern is cooler and wetter, fine details which is what everybody wants to know right now will fall in as the time draws closer.

What about way down here? Any chance it'll make it down this far?

[gboudx]

What are the dates for this possible event? This Bastardi guy missed the last time he thought we were going to get hit with the artic blast, but the NWS was correct and had it off to our east and we only got a backdoor cold for only a short period of time.
Does this look like an extended stay cold? I thought we were to go zonal through most of FEB?
I have seen the NWS has us in the long range to be below normal temps and above normal precp...but then again they change often and forget Accuweather one day its snow and then its out of there.
I say Texas weather can't be predicted unless its summer then you know it will be hot and dry or hot and humid but no rain.
Most of the winter predictions happen after the fact.
Our last snow here in NTX was Valentines day last year and it was warm enough for me to go take snow pictures without a coat..and with a few hours it was well into the 40's and wet grass.
Are you saying that we might get a repeat around the 14th?

You didn't get any snow just before this past Xmas? I know we got about 1-1.5" on the East side of Dallas.

[ETXHAMXYL]

NOPE no snow just a few sleet pellets and a few flakes, nothing that stayed on the ground. I am about 75 miles southeast of Big D. I was hoping for a White birthday or Christmas but missed it by one day. Drove down to my grandpa's the day after Christmas where he got 9 inches of snow. He lives in Angleton Texas.
Still hoping for some white stuff this winter.

[vbhoutex]

Drove down to my grandpa's the day after Christmas where he got 9 inches of snow. He lives in Angleton Texas.

Now that is a weird statement coming from someone in N Texas!!! Of course you have to know the geography of the state too. I got about .25" here in W. Houston. Talk about ENVIOUS-your grandpa lives about 40 miles South of me!!![/quote]