Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Not to be paranoid... but with all the PM's yesterday I am wondering if you guys are posting someplace else??

[R-Dub]

LOL no TT, at least from me, all the PM's were weather tape related. Just been busy trying to keep up with the grass growing a hundred miles an hour at the course........IN JANUARY

1/27/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:32:15 PM CURRENT
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 53.1
Humidity (%) 73.5
Wind (mph) S 2.6
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.93
Dew Point: 44.9 ºF

[R-Dub]

Okay I have a little more data to compare this winter with winter of '92-'93. Data is from my golf course weather records..........

Okay looks just like this yr, temps started out cold first half of the month, similar temps to this month. Then like now, temps for the last half of Jan were in the 50's for highs. In Feb the first half was very warm, like the temps we have just seen. 3 days 60 degrees or higher. Also precip was very much like this yr back then, fairly to really dry after a wet transition to the warmer temps.

Then the cold struck Feb 15, and was with us until March 2nd. Highs low 30's at times, and at the warmest was upper 30's. Lows were in the mid teens, to the mid 20's at the warmest. We had snow cover from the 20th-the 27th. 4" of snow total.
I am still thinking this winter is looking very much like that winter, and even know we are not seeing much in the way of cold now, if we went back in time, back to Jan 27th of 1993 I think people would be saying the same thing, winter is over. Then all of a sudden we are back down into the teens by Feb 20th with 4" of snow on the ground.

Here is some snowfall data from Stanwood for Feb and March, these are total amounts for the month..........

1991- No snowfall in Feb or March
1992- No snowfall in Feb or March
1993- 4" of snow in Feb, None in March
1994- 1" of snow in Feb, .5" in March
1995- 4" of snow in Feb, .5" in March
1996- 6" of snow in Feb, None in March
1997- No snowfall in Feb, 3" in March
1998- No snowfall in Feb or March
1999- 1" of snow in Feb, .5" in March
2000- No snowfall in Feb or March
2001- 15" snowfall of Feb, None for March
2002- 1" snowfall in Feb, 10" in March
2003- No snowfall in Feb or March
2004- No snowfall in Feb or March

[AnthonyC]

Continue to watch the tapes...still in "ahhh"!!! Man, I miss those winters in the mid, late 90s. I would even take the 98 arctic blast. Oh well.

In any event, nothing new...or improved...from the GFS. Still shows a prolonged ridge in the west, trough in the east. No sign of a change...if anything the amplification of both patterns strengthen toward the beginning, middle of February. At this point, I just want a zonal flow. Forget snow in the lowlands...we need snow in the mountains. Anyone read the interesting weather arcticle in the Seattle Times this morning? Most water management agencies haven't seen this low of a snowpack for over 30 years...that's pretty amazing considering we're only in a weak El Nino. 1997-1998 wasn't even this bad. What's up?!

I'm going back to Utah February 10, and I was hoping I would see some snow/arctic cold...but looking at latest 500 mb heights, there almost at 570 in UTAH!!! What's going on?

Keep the faith alive and pray for the MOUNTAINS!!!

Anthony

[andrewr]

Well the good news for the mountains is that they can still receive snow in March and April, so it isn't over for them at this point in time.

[AnthonyC]

For the people who have the weather tapes, did anyone notice how pessimistic Rich Marriot was with all the snow events? One in particular...November 1996...he first called for a rain/snow mix from Seattle north, with a little accumulation in elevations above 500 feet. Then that morning, when it started snowing in many locations, he called for a rapid change-over to rain and no accumulations above two inches. Then two hours later, he called for accumulations of 1-4 inches north of Seattle and an inch from Seattle to Tacoma. Then by the noon hour, he was calling for 3-8 inches north of Seattle and 1-4 inches from Seattle to Tacoma. Everytime he would do a live weather report, he would say "It's about to change to rain unless you're above 500 feet..." yet it would never happen and he would keep delaying. He still does that to this day. I think the November 1996 event was VERY similar to the November 2001 event...almost the exact same setup. We saw about 10 inches from the 96 event, and about 5 inches from the 01 event.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

You would have thought that (at least I did at the time) that the weather guys could have just looked at the wind direction and speed (out of the North, and up to 20-25MPH IN SEATTLE. (From the Nov 96 event)I am not an expert, but I would have to say that if we are seeing that, that no change over to rain would happen. They just didn't want to admit that they were wrong! Todd Johnson was the same way as Rich Marriot.

Also you knew Dec 1996 was going to be a good event when Rich Marriot on xmas night before the start of it all says "looks like a fairly major winter storm headed our way" It shocked me to hear that from him since he is SO conservative.

[Brian_from_bellingham]

As far as the Dec. 1996 snow, I remember it was a real tug of war between the warm, moist air and the cold air. At one point, the extended forecast was for it to warm up into the 40's, but all of a sudden that changed, and the forecast was for colder and snow. I wish I had a tape of that, when the forecast changed.

[snow_wizzard]

I am only going to post stuff that is hopeful on here. I know that damn near every forecasting tool shows that we are screwed, but it's just too soon to throw in the towel. For what it's worth the 12z MRF (not the GFS) is in complete disagreement with the GFS...it shows an Arcitc outbreak for us before day 10. I guess it is fun to have something to hang some hope on...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12712.html

This for the 192 - 276 period.

[AnthonyC]

Very interesting observation snow_wizzard...although it still doesn't look like the ideal situation for an arctic outbreak...the amplified ridge is at 140W, which would bring cooler weather but no arctic air west of the cascades. Keep the positive stuff coming.

[snow_wizzard]

Could it be? Could there actually be a bit more good news? The latest ECMWF is promising, in that it shows no troughing in the east whatsoever! In fact the 8 - 10 day map show a trough trying to dig into the Pacific NW. This bears some resemblence to the 12z MRF run. I like the fact that the trends seem to be going our way. It is very comforting to see the ECMWF on our side.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif

Notice the trough about to dig in on the last panel.

The ECMWF surface maps also indicate some fairly chilly weather early next week, as 850mb temps of -1C and weak offshore gradients combine to give us some cold fog. The GFS also indicates snow for the mountains by Monday or so, with thicknesses below 540 and a cold front coming through. This might be the beginning of the turnaround for the models. Remember how the GFS held on to the cold for the west way too long earlier in the month. It could be trying to hold on too long in the east now...

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF has been the model of choice this winter. Good news indeed.

[AnthonyC]

I see more of a zonal flow...no significant troughs in the west or east. At least heights are down below 540 which is good news for the mountains. But until I see some resemblence from the GFS, I won't rely on anything. But it's good to see two model runs in a row showing something similar. I just pray we're not stuck in this "trough in the east, ridge in the west" for the rest of winter. It happened last year...could it happen again?!

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Brennan check your PM

I heard something on the news tonight about bears waking up from hibernation around the Issaquah area, and rummaging though peoples yards. They are as confused as the rest of us. I still think we are in a 92-93 pattern! Winter will show its self again before its all over.
Nice night though, still a little light at 5:45PM!!

1/27/05
7:40:30 PM CURRENT
Mostly Clear
Temperature (ºF) 44.6
Humidity (%) 90.2
Wind (mph) ESE 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.87
Dew Point: 41.9 ºF

[snow_wizzard]

I heard the bears woke up in Moscow too. Can you believe that in Russia. This weather is freaked out this year. You have to believe anything is possible....

[~Brennan~]

Hey Everyone... I think you are all thinking we are going to get the worst case scenario the rest of the winter. There is talk that we will be in a ridge for the rest of the winter, we have the worst snowpack in 30 years, this is worse than 97-98... It all doesn't matter right now. January 27th 2005... This year has been very wierd and it may be hard to believe but the crappy snowfall amounts in the mountain isn't due to the WEAK WEAK WEAK el nino. If you seriously think about it, the snow pack hasn't been broken because of a huge ridge in the west that has dominated throughout the winter. The first 2 weeks of January had very cold temps only it was really dry. After that we had a rapid warm up with a pineapple express, another phenomena that isn't normal in an el nino. I can understand that a lot of systems have broken apart and gone to our north and south right before they were going to reach us, that is characteristic of El Nino. As of the rest of the winter, don't worry about the mountains, they still have all of February and March to catch up on snowpack. It most likely will not get back to normal but a few good systems get things back at least to feeling and seeming like normal. As for lowlands, havn't any of us experienced a mid-winter warm spell? You are all acting like this warm period is going to take over the winter. I just don't get it. Ever since this warm period was blasting us with seriously warm temps, I was thinking the same thing I am right now. We are either going to get not much of any snow the rest of the winter, or we are going to get blasted. The wild temperature swings from the 20's and 30's to the 50's and 60's is just to WILD for this winter to end boring. temps in the upper 40's the rest of the winter is highly unlikely. The dry and mild weather that is causing the mountains to go bare, will end soon. I think everyone will take back everything they doubted this winter come Early february. (February 5th-15th)... We'll have to wait and see, but I am counting on some good cold weather with decent snow before this winter is over. Too many crazy things have happened this year. As of now, the cold weather in the east will not be very intense come end of next week, Alaska will continue to be cold, the MJO, which snowwizz introduced me to, is looking like it will change back towards another negative phase which is favorable for below normal temperatures for us in the west which occured in mid october, and the first half of January. The long range GFS that everyone has been so dissapointed over will start to become more positive for us, especially in the next few days.

[snow_wizzard]

Amen brother! Bring it on!

[~Brennan~]

Anthony, I hear you are talking about us being in a climate change since the mid 90's... What kind of climate change are you thinking? If you mean a permanent climate change then i disagree, but if you are talking about a temporary climate change than I totally agree with that. I just don't think we should jump on climate change because the last couple of arctic outbreaks didn't associate low pressure systems that brought us great snows and no rain shadows or whatever. We have simply become very unlucky in the past few years especially because we have had such great opportunity to get a lot of snow. Just last year We had 2 separate lows go into central oregon that blasted Northern Oregon and Southern Washington with a foot to 2 feet of snow. If those lows would have been 2-300 miles furthern north, we would have seen 1996 all over again... I don't think we are too far off from there, so therefore I don't agree that our climate has changed. Temporarily maybe, perminently or for a long period of time, NO... Just my opinion.

[~Brennan~]

One more thing about my post earlier about the remainder of this winter... if this warm spell would have had consistant temps in the low 50's with sunny weather and a huge ridge in the west, I might be giving up all hope as well. but it wasn't a typical ridge with 50 degree temps to go around... Mid to upper 60's is by far something we have never seen before in January.

[andycottle]

I am only going to post stuff that is hopeful on here. I know that damn near every forecasting tool shows that we are screwed, but it's just too soon to throw in the towel. For what it's worth the 12z MRF (not the GFS) is in complete disagreement with the GFS...it shows an Arcitc outbreak for us before day 10. I guess it is fun to have something to hang some hope on...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12712.html

This for the 192 - 276 period.

Snow-wizzard....looks like that 'cold air' is well East of us and heads into the Rocky Mountain region. -- Andy