Frankthetank:
I haven't had a chance to look at the latest models-I'm sure they are different from last night!! I sure hope it comes as snow-I have had enough ice storms the past 3 years!!! If the 0z gfs (again, Im sure the 06z and 06z NMA are different!!) were to verify I would be looking at a good snow or one heck of an ice storm!!!! The days are getting longer and if we wind up getting all rain Sunday/Monday (which is quite likely brushing aside the 0Z gfs as a fluke) it will take all the ice off the lakes and when we have our big warm up middle of next week, I can start bass fishing!!!!
Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Just had a couple of minutes to look at the 12z data of the NMA and GFS-they both return to the 0Z solutions-this area is frozen thru the whole event based on the GFS and NAM soundings and we should all be snow-The ETA looks to give us about 1/2 inch of precip the GFS a little bit less-base don these runs and the consistencey with the 0z runs, I think Lawrence/Kansas City will see between 2-4 inches of snow possibly 5-6 if the NAM were to verify. One very encoraging thing about this, is that the radar is already beginning to light up over Kansas!!! The Sunday/Monday event can wait till later-thisa right now is shaping up to be our biggest winter storm since November!!!!
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BowMeHunter
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Good luck with the snow sertorious!!! We got 7" of very light fluff LES at my house last night and this AM...Looks to be a pretty boring weekend and beyond here in Milwaukee..Hopefully the future looks brighter..I guess I can't complain, we have recieved 21" in Milwaukee the last 6 days!!! LoL NEVER can get enough for me tho...
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BowMeHunter:
If this area rec. 7 inches of snow, I'd be out of school for a day at least!!!! As of now, the Friday/Saturday event looks pretty good-even the NWS out of Topeka is squaking a litle bit. I am not ven going to look at the 18z models-I know they will be different than the 12!!! I am starting to wonder though: The sun is poking thru and outr temp. is really starting to climb-The radar returns look to be heading more east than North-we shall see. I just can't buy that this will happen and am always looking at things that could go wrong!!!
If this area rec. 7 inches of snow, I'd be out of school for a day at least!!!! As of now, the Friday/Saturday event looks pretty good-even the NWS out of Topeka is squaking a litle bit. I am not ven going to look at the 18z models-I know they will be different than the 12!!! I am starting to wonder though: The sun is poking thru and outr temp. is really starting to climb-The radar returns look to be heading more east than North-we shall see. I just can't buy that this will happen and am always looking at things that could go wrong!!!
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Just a quick note. I'm waiting for the 0z runs to come out and look ate them. The NWS service out of Topeka is really down playing this event-give us about 1-2 inches tops-based on the 18z runs I think that is a good call. The only problem, is that the 18z runs did the same thing yesterday then on the 0z and 12z came back into line with each other. The radar looks ok-2 problems: Massive dry air here that is really knocking it down-it will take a while to saturate the colum and may really knock our amounts down. Second: the Temps. the models have us below freezing for the whole event, but I am wondering-we are steadily dropping-we shall see. If the 0z runs come out like the 18z runs did and the radar returns continue to break apart before reaching here, then stick a fork in it. This is our one good chance to get something-will it materialize?? I'd give it about a 40% chance as of now.
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Ok-I'm sure everybody is thrilled, but here are some thoughts about the Friday/Saturday event for this area and few thoughts beyond.
Friday/Saturday: Models: The NAM gives us more precip. than the GFS-both show all snow for this area-Based on these I would go for about 2 inches of snow Friday night into Saturday.
However, I'm not really sure the models are handeling this storm very well which leads me to the next point
Radars: There is a heck of alot of moisture in Texas that is heading in this general direction. We have been batteling dry air all day and the radar really showed this. However, my temp is at 30.5 and my dew point has risen to 28-there is a band of precip that has been trying to get here all day, that is finally making its way-it is currently at Emporia (50 miles south west of me) and is staying together and actually growing back to the south west. I should begin to see snow or sleet in about an hour. The radar out of Amarillo Texas shows the precip moving due North with a slight North east turn. If this all stays together, I will have snow for quite some time. The models do not have me in any precip. untill 0z Saturday. We will see measurable precip. a good 15 hours before is these bands hold together. Again, the dry air should no longer be an issue as our air is getting saturated-with the cold the past 36 hours, if it comes down with any intensity, it will begin to accumalte on the streets tonight. The NWS forecast is a good one based on model data (not that they need me to say good job!!!-Our NWS does a great job) but I would not be surprised with the radar returns if we see as much as 4 when it is all said and done. Thus, I am sticking with my 2-4 I said last night.
Sunday/Monday Event: Who the heck knows-surely not the models. The GFS of course totally reversed it's 0z run last night and by 18Z I'm getting flurries with the low in Mexico-but oh wait, on the 0Z run, I'm back in the game for 2 inches from this as the low is in West central Texas-it goes from 8 inches to 0 to 2 all in a 24 hour period-how the heck to mets use this thing to make a forecast and put in thier long rangers on Television??? The euro on Sunday has a surface low in Colorado-by Monday it is in the Atlantic-it takes the low across Oklahoma and Arkansas-It is not real strong, but it is there. The NAM has all precip. in Arkansas and Oklahoma. The GEM on the 0z today as well as the MRF (Of course tomorrow the MRF will be like the GFS 0z) have the track thru Oklahom and Northern Arkansas and it is apretty strong storm. The jury is still way out on this IMHO-This needs to be revisited on Saturday/Sunday morning when we can see where the precip is setting up. (You can see this storm entering California on radar by the way)
A little further beyond: Both the GFS and EURO close off a low in the south west for 2-3 days next week. On the 12z and 18z GFS, the low comes out way south thru southern Texas. However, looking at the 500 plots on the EURO, the upper low is tracking thru southern Kansas and Missouri-it takes it 3 days as by Saturday you can see it in Southern Missouri-on Thursday, it is in Western Kansas. Our temps. according to the euro are just a bit below normal-not there is no arctic air, but the way I see this 12z Euro, this low creates it's own cold air behind it-this could be quite the interesting situation. It will most likely change, but it is something to look at. Well, thanks for reading-I have to look out my window and see if I can see my first snow flake in 3 weeks!! I might have my first greater than one inch snow since November!!!!!
Friday/Saturday: Models: The NAM gives us more precip. than the GFS-both show all snow for this area-Based on these I would go for about 2 inches of snow Friday night into Saturday.
However, I'm not really sure the models are handeling this storm very well which leads me to the next point
Radars: There is a heck of alot of moisture in Texas that is heading in this general direction. We have been batteling dry air all day and the radar really showed this. However, my temp is at 30.5 and my dew point has risen to 28-there is a band of precip that has been trying to get here all day, that is finally making its way-it is currently at Emporia (50 miles south west of me) and is staying together and actually growing back to the south west. I should begin to see snow or sleet in about an hour. The radar out of Amarillo Texas shows the precip moving due North with a slight North east turn. If this all stays together, I will have snow for quite some time. The models do not have me in any precip. untill 0z Saturday. We will see measurable precip. a good 15 hours before is these bands hold together. Again, the dry air should no longer be an issue as our air is getting saturated-with the cold the past 36 hours, if it comes down with any intensity, it will begin to accumalte on the streets tonight. The NWS forecast is a good one based on model data (not that they need me to say good job!!!-Our NWS does a great job) but I would not be surprised with the radar returns if we see as much as 4 when it is all said and done. Thus, I am sticking with my 2-4 I said last night.
Sunday/Monday Event: Who the heck knows-surely not the models. The GFS of course totally reversed it's 0z run last night and by 18Z I'm getting flurries with the low in Mexico-but oh wait, on the 0Z run, I'm back in the game for 2 inches from this as the low is in West central Texas-it goes from 8 inches to 0 to 2 all in a 24 hour period-how the heck to mets use this thing to make a forecast and put in thier long rangers on Television??? The euro on Sunday has a surface low in Colorado-by Monday it is in the Atlantic-it takes the low across Oklahoma and Arkansas-It is not real strong, but it is there. The NAM has all precip. in Arkansas and Oklahoma. The GEM on the 0z today as well as the MRF (Of course tomorrow the MRF will be like the GFS 0z) have the track thru Oklahom and Northern Arkansas and it is apretty strong storm. The jury is still way out on this IMHO-This needs to be revisited on Saturday/Sunday morning when we can see where the precip is setting up. (You can see this storm entering California on radar by the way)
A little further beyond: Both the GFS and EURO close off a low in the south west for 2-3 days next week. On the 12z and 18z GFS, the low comes out way south thru southern Texas. However, looking at the 500 plots on the EURO, the upper low is tracking thru southern Kansas and Missouri-it takes it 3 days as by Saturday you can see it in Southern Missouri-on Thursday, it is in Western Kansas. Our temps. according to the euro are just a bit below normal-not there is no arctic air, but the way I see this 12z Euro, this low creates it's own cold air behind it-this could be quite the interesting situation. It will most likely change, but it is something to look at. Well, thanks for reading-I have to look out my window and see if I can see my first snow flake in 3 weeks!! I might have my first greater than one inch snow since November!!!!!
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Looking at radar this morning, my 2-4 inch prediction looks to get squashed!!! There is a band of snow now entering south central Kansas and it is heading North East. However, there does not seem to me much developing behind it. The other problem we have, is that we are so dry-the band of precip that I thought would break thru last night never did and now we have broken clouds. We just can not saturate!!! I'm not even going to look at the models for this event any more-it is time to check radar and temps. The low is still in Colorado-will be interesting to see if it kicks anything else up as it moves out. I would say that South and then even North of me will recieve the bulk of the precip. On local radar, you can just see the big whole over my area-too dry. Time will tell. I am intersted to see if the models trended any further North for the storm Sunday. I'll keep (much to your chagrin!!!) posting up dates here!!
Well, the 12z NAM still wants to give this area a pretty good swath of precip-it is sitting by itself-the GFS and UKMET are not far behind but a little less-the NAM by tomorrow noon wants to give us about 1/4-1/2 inch of precip with temps. freezing thru the whole event. The GFS and UKMET are about a 1/4-the MM5 and RUC do not want to bring any precip in here at all nor does the Nogaps. We shall see-again, time to follow the radars-still really batteling dry air!!!
Well, the 12z NAM still wants to give this area a pretty good swath of precip-it is sitting by itself-the GFS and UKMET are not far behind but a little less-the NAM by tomorrow noon wants to give us about 1/4-1/2 inch of precip with temps. freezing thru the whole event. The GFS and UKMET are about a 1/4-the MM5 and RUC do not want to bring any precip in here at all nor does the Nogaps. We shall see-again, time to follow the radars-still really batteling dry air!!!
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Quick update:
The NWS out of Topeka has issued a winter weather advisory for Lawrence thru tonight. The low pressure area is currently over the Oklahoma Pan Handdle (if I am seeing it correctly) and seems to be moving East-North East. The band of precip is currently heading due North theu Central Kansas. While 12Z Gfs has increased our precip (now in line with the 12Z NAM) I am really wondering about this-Here In KC, there is sun poking thru the clouds-we are just so darned dry at the surface. You can see the precip bands getting shredded as they move this way. If our air was not so dry, this may have been a bigger event than it is turning out to be. Hopefully when the low heads further east, we will saturate and will begin to see some precip. falling. W are really abtteling dry air at the surface.
The NWS out of Topeka has issued a winter weather advisory for Lawrence thru tonight. The low pressure area is currently over the Oklahoma Pan Handdle (if I am seeing it correctly) and seems to be moving East-North East. The band of precip is currently heading due North theu Central Kansas. While 12Z Gfs has increased our precip (now in line with the 12Z NAM) I am really wondering about this-Here In KC, there is sun poking thru the clouds-we are just so darned dry at the surface. You can see the precip bands getting shredded as they move this way. If our air was not so dry, this may have been a bigger event than it is turning out to be. Hopefully when the low heads further east, we will saturate and will begin to see some precip. falling. W are really abtteling dry air at the surface.
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Currently, the storm looks to be falling apart fast. Radar returns llok horrible and I am now in almost full sunshine. If this keeps up, most of the precip. (what makes it here) will fall as rain!!!! Dry air has really won out here so far. Hopefully when low comes across Oklahoma, it will pick up some steam-we shall see
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In the last couple of hours, the radar has filled in and looks better-the first edge of precip should be plowing into here in the next 2 hours (still having part of it get ripped by the dry air!!!) Our temp. is at 35, but our dew point is in the mid 20's-so we should cool pretty quickly once the heavier bands arrive. Although this may not be what was advertised yesterday, it will still be the third best winter event of the year-oh wait, I've only had 3 the whole winter!!!! 
Will keep posting updates here as things get going-may start snowing just in time for my drive back to Lawrence!!!
Will keep posting updates here as things get going-may start snowing just in time for my drive back to Lawrence!!!
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We finally have precip. Currently we have sleet and snow-our temp. is at 33 but dropping steadily. The bake edge of the precip is about 100 miles south of me. It looks like some more is trying to form behind this intital batch. Looks like a 2-4 hours of snow/sleet then who knows. Not a big deal really and won't accumalte very much, but it sure is nice to be getting something!!!
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The final snow band is shrinking and ready to exit the immediate Kansas City area as of 10:30 this morning. Nice little surprise if you think that as of yesterday Kansas City was supposed to get nothing. North of the river rec. a dusting at best south of the river from downtown KC-about Belton Mo. picked up from 1-10 inches. Kansas City will prob. record one inch from this but the sub. south and east did pretty well. Lawrence, where I actually live and not work, ghot zilch 0. The snow bands started to head north last night, then began to head more east again so Lawrence was just a bit to far west. Driving into work this morning, about 10 miles east of Lawrence there was an inch on the ground-very small bands of snow!!! So Lawrence remains at 12 inches for the year total (9 of that in November) and Kansas City has 12 as well for the year. Nice little surprise, but would have been awesome if that low had tracked about 100 miles further North!!! Next week per today's 0z Euro looks interesting-not so today's 0Z or 06Z GFS. -Beautifull outside today that's for sure!!!!
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The current storm is now pushing off to the South and East-Lawrence did not get any measurable snow, but Kansas City south of the river prob. got 1-2 inches. (Some areas just 30 miles south east of the city got close to 12 inches-kind of reverse from November snow!!) Now, onto the next possibility:
In my untrained mind, the 0Z Euro seems to offer much more hope than either the 0Z or 06Z GFS. The euro is still trying to develop a trough in the central plains by Sunday/Monday and has a low comming across the southern plains on Monday. It also shows a ridge developing in the Gulf of Alaska. Granted, it has backed off a bit from yesterday as the 540 line is not quite as far south as yesterday's run.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5013012!!/ sunday 2-6 on 12z 1-30 run
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5013100!!/ 500 ht. Monday 2-7-05 0z 1-31
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5013100!!/ Sunday 2-6 0z 1-31
The GFS is totally different than this on its 0z and 06Z runs-no cold air in this area untill Thursday and no buckle untill Thursday either. The Euro does not show and arctic out break or anything (it could be setting soemthing up) but it def. shows a stormier earlier week next week than the gfs. Interesting to follow!!!
In my untrained mind, the 0Z Euro seems to offer much more hope than either the 0Z or 06Z GFS. The euro is still trying to develop a trough in the central plains by Sunday/Monday and has a low comming across the southern plains on Monday. It also shows a ridge developing in the Gulf of Alaska. Granted, it has backed off a bit from yesterday as the 540 line is not quite as far south as yesterday's run.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5013012!!/ sunday 2-6 on 12z 1-30 run
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5013100!!/ 500 ht. Monday 2-7-05 0z 1-31
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5013100!!/ Sunday 2-6 0z 1-31
The GFS is totally different than this on its 0z and 06Z runs-no cold air in this area untill Thursday and no buckle untill Thursday either. The Euro does not show and arctic out break or anything (it could be setting soemthing up) but it def. shows a stormier earlier week next week than the gfs. Interesting to follow!!!
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BowMeHunter
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Bring on a winter storm yet baby!!!!!-
simplykristi
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Simplykristi:
What an interesting event-kind of the opposite of November where areas North and West saw all the snow. Lawrence got nothing-the school where I work got about an inch. Hopefully next week will give us something-the euro does show some possibilities at least. The 12Z GFS is totally different from the 12Z Euro. The 12Z GFS has out 850 temps. at about 10 degrees thru next Tuesday-the EURO has 850 temps. below 0 by late Sunday into Monday.
Bowhunter:
Thanks!!! I will keep flapping in this thread untill the last chance of snow occurs-then it will be time to bass fish and do yard work!!!!
What an interesting event-kind of the opposite of November where areas North and West saw all the snow. Lawrence got nothing-the school where I work got about an inch. Hopefully next week will give us something-the euro does show some possibilities at least. The 12Z GFS is totally different from the 12Z Euro. The 12Z GFS has out 850 temps. at about 10 degrees thru next Tuesday-the EURO has 850 temps. below 0 by late Sunday into Monday.
Bowhunter:
Thanks!!! I will keep flapping in this thread untill the last chance of snow occurs-then it will be time to bass fish and do yard work!!!!
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Interesting 12Z run of the EURO-this run is much colder than the 12Z GFS of today-Thursday is the warmest day and it may only reach 50 max according to the EURO. Also, the 0z GFS for Tuesday is trending colder based on the 850 temps. Will be interesting to see if it trends closer to the EURO-the 12Z Euro has it pretty darn cold here by Monday with 850 temps at -6 degrees. At least something to watch. Good luck in Texas and Oklahoma-some time, one of these STJ storms will trend North and all of the central plains can enjoy the snow-not just localized areas!!!
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A couple of quick notes:
The 0z and 06Z GFS and 0Z Euro for today are hinting at some storm possibilities for the central plains early next week. Both runs of the GFS show a full out snow storm for this area Monday. The euro is slower with the energy comming out of California and holds it back untill Tuesday/Wed. Also, the EURO is really backing off the arctic plunge idea it had on Sunday. However, the GFS now brings some pretty cold air down here by Monday
1. Both GFS and EURO have out 850 temps. at -6 and below by Monday-the GFS is more bullish now on the cold than the EURO.
2. Both do show a low developing off the California coast and both show it comming into the 4 corners area sometime next week.
3. Both also show a pretty much zonal pattern developing by next Friday so if this all does come together, it will be short lived for this area.
4. To me, this is very similar to what we saw in early Jan. with our one big storm for the winter season.
5. After today, we will really begin to warm up untill Saturday.
6. Will this next week occur?? Still way to early, but the GFS and EURO have been showing a similar solution for a couple of days. I would bet that early next week will see some changes in the weather here. Precip. etc. will change from day to day and I am not counting on us getting a storm and, it will be short lived as the trough quickly moves east. But, there is something to monitor for the next 5 days!!
The 0z and 06Z GFS and 0Z Euro for today are hinting at some storm possibilities for the central plains early next week. Both runs of the GFS show a full out snow storm for this area Monday. The euro is slower with the energy comming out of California and holds it back untill Tuesday/Wed. Also, the EURO is really backing off the arctic plunge idea it had on Sunday. However, the GFS now brings some pretty cold air down here by Monday
1. Both GFS and EURO have out 850 temps. at -6 and below by Monday-the GFS is more bullish now on the cold than the EURO.
2. Both do show a low developing off the California coast and both show it comming into the 4 corners area sometime next week.
3. Both also show a pretty much zonal pattern developing by next Friday so if this all does come together, it will be short lived for this area.
4. To me, this is very similar to what we saw in early Jan. with our one big storm for the winter season.
5. After today, we will really begin to warm up untill Saturday.
6. Will this next week occur?? Still way to early, but the GFS and EURO have been showing a similar solution for a couple of days. I would bet that early next week will see some changes in the weather here. Precip. etc. will change from day to day and I am not counting on us getting a storm and, it will be short lived as the trough quickly moves east. But, there is something to monitor for the next 5 days!!
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While I'm on my off hour, I just had to look at the 06Z GFS again-it looks so good for Sunday night and Monday-had to save it for when next Monday arrives and all the precip. is actually down in Texas!!! By the way, this is a true wish cast post-The may be the last real good shot I have at a winter event, so I am truly hoping it pans out!!!
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