Central Texas

[Kelarie]

Only in Texas....

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT- DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES- KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS- UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA- 630 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005
... WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TURNING COLDER LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THIS FAST MOVING COLD FRONT... SATURDAY NIGHT... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW FREEZING TO NEAR 32 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER AND MID 30S OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO AROUND 50 TO LOWER 50S OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A FREEZE IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING... WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AGAIN WEDNESDAY....

[jeff]

Big weahter changes coming to TX over the next 48 hours as a strong fast roars off the central plains. Latest indications are that the potent low near Baja will not come across with the front and instead hang back over Mexico into early next week. This should lift much rain with the front with the best chances over SE TX on east.

Quite cold behind the front, and NWS/guidance may be a few degrees too warm considering the amount of cold air over the plains and snowpack. Another freeze all the way to the coast is expected.

Pattern begins to shift to a much wetter and warmer time by the middle of next week as the southern stream intensifies and posistions itself over the state.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Where did this front come from? I thought we were looking "frontless" for the rest of the week, if not the month?

[Portastorm]

Last few runs of the GFS show over the next 10 days a very active southern stream with periodic storms rolling across the southern U.S.

Looks like we'll be seeing some rainfall if this verifies ... and maybe we can wishcast some polar air this far south to give us a little excitement!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

We could us some good rain down this way. This drizzle stuff does nothing by mess up a clean car.

[Kelarie]

Looks like we'll be seeing some rainfall if this verifies ... and maybe we can wishcast some polar air this far south to give us a little excitement!

Crossing fingers and wishing very hard. But I wont be holding my breath. It is a nice thought, but the chance of the happening is soooo slim. But a nice thought tho.

[sertorius]

I've been watching the gfs for late next week-the southern stream does get active-i personally think the gfs is to warm for the central plains in that time period-on the 240 Euro there looks to be a ridge dveloping over Alaska (Man I hope I'm not putting my foot in my mouth again!!!) http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model/ecmwf/ecmwf_h240_500.gif-if this is true, colder air could spill down for my area-not sure how far south it would go, but I think the central plains may def. be colder than what the gfs has progged and even the euro. Whatever the case, by the end of next week, things look much more active from Nebraska-Texas for sure.

[Portastorm]

I think Jeff hit the nail on the head earlier. You will see NWS dropping their temps on Sunday and Sunday night by a category or two. In fact, Austin/San Antonio NWS has already referred to this in their afternoon discussion.

Sunday ought to definitely feel like winter in most of Texas. Meanwhile, it is sunny and mid 70s here in the capital city. Spring weather.

[Kelarie]

Well it is a bit strange, accuweather (to believe or not to believe, that is the question) has rain or snow showers possible on 2/3 and rain and freezing rain late on 2/5. What is going on with that? Didn't think it was going to be that cold.

[CaptinCrunch]

The Dallas/Ft Worth area will see showers off and on thru out the afternoon and into this evening with a high around 50, low tonight around 38, will have a slight chance of showers friday with a high around 50 and a low of 42.

The GFS MR forecast shows a cool down by tuesday of next week with temps in the mid to lower 50's with expected lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's for much of TX. Right now I don't see any major cold fronts pushing into Texas. I do expect another ridge to form over Alaska by mid February that could bring about a big change to the lower 48, and the SJS will be very active from now thru March. February will be much colder than what January was for parts of TX with a better chance of precip, both frozen and non-frozen.

[gboudx]

The Dallas/Ft Worth area will see showers off and on thru out the afternoon and into this evening with a high around 50, low tonight around 38, will have a slight chance of showers friday with a high around 50 and a low of 42.

The GFS MR forecast shows a cool down by tuesday of next week with temps in the mid to lower 50's with expected lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's for much of TX. Right now I don't see any major cold fronts pushing into Texas. I do expect another ridge to form over Alaska by mid February that could bring about a big change to the lower 48, and the SJS will be very active from now thru March. February will be much colder than what January was for parts of TX with a better chance of precip, both frozen and non-frozen.

Colder? If there's no frozen precip with it, then I hope not. Got my gas bill yesterday and .

[CaptinCrunch]

The Dallas/Ft Worth area will see showers off and on thru out the afternoon and into this evening with a high around 50, low tonight around 38, will have a slight chance of showers friday with a high around 50 and a low of 42.

The GFS MR forecast shows a cool down by tuesday of next week with temps in the mid to lower 50's with expected lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's for much of TX. Right now I don't see any major cold fronts pushing into Texas. I do expect another ridge to form over Alaska by mid February that could bring about a big change to the lower 48, and the SJS will be very active from now thru March. February will be much colder than what January was for parts of TX with a better chance of precip, both frozen and non-frozen.

Colder? If there's no frozen precip with it, then I hope not. Got my gas bill yesterday and .

January has been a roller coaster of temps, we have been either way below normal or way above, but as of yesterday the avg monthly temp was only 2 degrees above normal. We will close out the month with normal to below normal temps (highs) and avg to above avg (lows) and below avg precip. I expect January 2005 to go into the record book as just being Avg. for NTX in temps and below avg for precip.

[chris07dabomb]

Hey Captin when do you think some dates are for snow here in Denison,TX during February? I know they are calling for a chance of sleet here tonight, but I dought it.

[chris07dabomb]

Denison,TX is sitting at 37 with light rain. I sure hope the temp. drops more!!!!!!!!!

[ETXHAMXYL]

Heard met on 11 in Dallas mention on the 10 o'clock news that we would have temps in the upper 40's that would begin falling off to the low 40's by Tuesday and mentioned that Wed would need watching....MMMM hope she wasn't teasing us.
The other stations had us in the 50's and on and off rain all next week. Accuweather keeps going back and forth and the NWS I believe is wet and cool.
So what gives?

[Kelarie]

Well accuweather is a space of a day has taken the wintery weather out. So, are we going back to 70 degree weather? Or do we just not know what is going on?

[gboudx]

Well accuweather is a space of a day has taken the wintery weather out. So, are we going back to 70 degree weather? Or do we just not know what is going on?

Here's a snippet from the San Angelo AFD this morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2005

.LONG TERM...
CHAOTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK AS
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLICES FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES WITH CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
COMING WEEK BELOW CLIMO. WITH THE WET PATTERN SHOWING NO SIGN OF
ABATING...WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FT. WORTH TEXAS
.PREV DISCUSSION...
350 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2005


DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TODAY
HAVE REVERTED TO A SOLUTION THE UKMET/ECMWF SHOWED 2 DAYS AGO...WITH
A LESS PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS TEXAS. THIS MEANS STALLED
FRONT NOW ALONG THE COAST WILL NOT BE PULLED AS FAR NORTH AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED WITH COOLER TEMPS LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY. THIS ALSO MEANS LESS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...AND AGREE
WITH SPC ON A MORE LIMITED THUNDER THREAT ON SUNDAY. THUS HAVE
PULLED THUNDER...SINCE IT WOULD ONLY BE VERY ISOLATED AND ELEVATED.
WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
WILL KNIFE UNDERNEATH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PER ETA FORECASTS.
COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.


How Cold will this air be? local mets and NWS was off on temps for Thurs, and Today by 9 degrees for highs, and haved lowered temps for this weekend by a few degrees to keep high in the mid 50's with lows in the lower 40's. The models are now showing a stronger shot of colder air coming down after the 1st of Feburary, this will not be a direct shot but rather a so called back door shot, either way it looks to be colder than what the models showed on monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2005

.UPDATE...
A LOW OVERCAST...AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP TODAY. UPDATED FORECASTS WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY...LOWERING TODAYS HIGHS TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
MOST LOCATIONS. AM ALSO ADJUSTING TONIGHTS LOWS...GENERALLY LOWERING
THEM BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST POINTS. Thats what I thought.

I have also noticed that the models are showing Canada filling back up with some very cold polor air, now not looking past a 10 day time frame I would guess that this colder polor air will be making it's was S/SE into the U.S. by mid month, and as long as the SJS keeeps the moisture flowing in a N/NE direction across TX and you get over riding between the two, well you never know.

[sertorius]

CaptainCrunch:

The 12Z 10 euro really shows some interesting things: It seems to be bringing arctic air down thru the plains-the 500 hts are really lowering on that run. We shall see

[chris07dabomb]

Hey Captin when do you think some dates during February will be for snow here in north Texas? Is there any chance this weekend?