2nd (and possibly final call) on JAN 29th-30th icestorm...

[Stormsfury]

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion)

SF

[Anonymous]

Excellent update, SF ! Question: Where should I position myself specifically tomorrow to see possible damaging ice accumulation and about what time do you expect the onset of this precip ?

I figure what ? Around Ridgeville around 8:00 AM ??

Any chances Ladson/Summerville will start seeing ZR/IP early ??

Thanks much, Ken

[RevDodd]

Still got Faynam on the edge of the mess?

[Brent]

Excellent update, SF ! Question: Where should I position myself specifically tomorrow to see possible damaging ice accumulation and about what time do you expect the onset of this precip ?

I figure what ? Around Ridgeville around 8:00 AM ??

Any chances Ladson/Summerville will start seeing ZR/IP early ??

Thanks much, Ken

Chasing ice is not my cup of tea... Ice sucks. I hope to be sleeping when and if we get a little freezing rain here. Sleet is cool though.

[GAStorm]

Chasing ice is not my cup of tea... Ice sucks. I hope to be sleeping when and if we get a little freezing rain here. Sleet is cool though.

The NAM/ETA is trending towards more sleet for north GA. The NWS also picked up on this, and just changed our forecast. The more sleet the better!

[GAStorm]

Here is the updated NWS forecast as of 12pm:

Tonight: Occasional freezing rain and sleet, mainly after 1am. Low around 28. East wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday: Occasional freezing rain before 1pm, then occasional rain and sleet. High near 35. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[JenyEliza]

Chasing ice is not my cup of tea... Ice sucks. I hope to be sleeping when and if we get a little freezing rain here. Sleet is cool though.

The NAM/ETA is trending towards more sleet for north GA. The NWS also picked up on this, and just changed our forecast. The more sleet the better!

SLEET is all good with me. That's the BEST stuff for sledding!!

Freezing rain they can keep. We don't need ice on the trees and power lines!!

Wooo Hoo. Sleet!!

Jen

[JenyEliza]

[Stormsfury]

Everything seems to be on track, however, temperature busts today (again, not surprised WRT to the cold air damming, and mid-level deck of cloud canopy streaming across the SE, have held temperatures down in the MID-30's in CHS and across GA/Carolinas ... progged temperatures were set to be in the mid-40's south, low 40's Midlands ... furthermore, dewpoints are still running from the single digits (6º CHS) to single digits below zero (-2ºF) (CAE, and Greenwood, SC)...

This is a LOT of dry air to overcome, RH's are running in the mid-twenty percent range. Again, I don't see the question being the cold, dry air ... the moisture could still be a problem ...

SF

[colawx]

Ice storm warnings just went up to Columbia, SC. Your forcast appears to be pretty accurate. Maybe you should do this professionally!

[RevDodd]

Right on the nose SF! In Faynam we were progged for 43-45, climbed to about 36 and stalled.

Temp's dropped 4 degrees in the last 90 minutes, with a RH of 2 degrees.

Sure you can't sneak that moisture over here a little quicker?

[DLI2k5]

Everything seems to be on track, however, temperature busts today (again, not surprised WRT to the cold air damming, and mid-level deck of cloud canopy streaming across the SE, have held temperatures down in the MID-30's in CHS and across GA/Carolinas ... progged temperatures were set to be in the mid-40's south, low 40's Midlands ... furthermore, dewpoints are still running from the single digits (6º CHS) to single digits below zero (-2ºF) (CAE, and Greenwood, SC)...

This is a LOT of dry air to overcome, RH's are running in the mid-twenty percent range. Again, I don't see the question being the cold, dry air ... the moisture could still be a problem ...

SF

Hey the SF.....The local mets did bust with the temps. today, i heard of lot of them saying low 40's here, it's 36 here. Pretty much the same temp as in CLT or GSP.They are predicting temps will be in the 20's tonight. Since we have that much cold air in place and if we do manage to get that moisture streaming in, wouldn't this possibly allow some accumulating snow/sleet to occur? Also, someone on another BB alluded to the fact that two models, i think the NAM and GFS are showing a possible low developing off of the SC coast. They said it could intensify and make the storm even more powerful as far as precip. goes.

[Anonymous]

Everything seems to be on track, however, temperature busts today (again, not surprised WRT to the cold air damming, and mid-level deck of cloud canopy streaming across the SE, have held temperatures down in the MID-30's in CHS and across GA/Carolinas ... progged temperatures were set to be in the mid-40's south, low 40's Midlands ... furthermore, dewpoints are still running from the single digits (6º CHS) to single digits below zero (-2ºF) (CAE, and Greenwood, SC)...

This is a LOT of dry air to overcome, RH's are running in the mid-twenty percent range. Again, I don't see the question being the cold, dry air ... the moisture could still be a problem ...

SF

Right on SF about the temp bust ! I didn't expect it to reach low 40's today when the forecast was issued for Summerville/Ladson last night. Mostly with CAD events the NWS is always 3 to 7 degrees too high, especially when OVC. Well, with max temps in mid 30's today and the DP single digits, any moisture streaming in from the west or SW late tonight will at first be aloft at the onset (wrt to overcoming dry air), then start as a mixture of ZR/sleet towards morning as DP rise to mid 20's by sunrise. I would not doubt some accumulation is possible early tomorrow (possibly a tenth ice accretion) in this area with highs mostly around 33 to 35 F tomorrow with the NE fetch continuing and precip changing to mostly rain, but not until early afternoon. Local forecast says East wind profile tomorrow but even that's doubtful based on the latest forecast comparison to Orangeburg County, which expects NE flow all day.

[Stormsfury]

Latest RUC says ... let's extend the advisories even FURTHER SOUTH ...





http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... typ&loop=1

[Anonymous]

wow ! Do I see snow in south GA here ??

[Stormsfury]

FWIW, Ice storm warnings in effect for all of the Columbia (CAE) CWA ...

[JenyEliza]

This thing is going all the way to SOUTH GA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>084-094-095-290300-BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DOUGLAS-FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JONES-LAMAR-LUMPKIN-MADISON-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MORGAN-MURRAY-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TOWNS-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILKES-WILKINSON-
723 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON TRACK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS IMMINENT.

AN INITIAL BAND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...STRETCHING FROM NEAR ROME...TO LAWRENCEVILLE...TO MILLEDGEVILLE IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WERE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION.

A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA AT 7 PM...AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT...THE FREEZING LINE WILL BE LOCATED FROM LA GRANGE...TO MACON...TO SANDERSVILLE. BY 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING...THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE LOCATED AS FAR SOUTH AS A COLUMBUS...AMERICUS...VIDALIA LINE. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...WITH 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE...POSSIBLY EVEN MORE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. ICING ON TREES AND POWER LINES COULD BECOME QUITE SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL ALSO ICE UP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EVEN MAIN ROADS...ESPECIALLY SECONDARY ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY MORNING.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CREEP SLOWLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST OF A BLUE RIDGE...ATLANTA...MILLEDGEVILLE LINE...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE ADVISED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME TREACHEROUS AND TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

RAB