Pacific Northwest Weather

[Cumulonimbus]

I was here in 1968-1969. It was an incredible winter. Instead of rain in January 1969 it snowed. The snow was mostly powder and that was at sea level. I missed 10 days of school that winter and didn't have to make any of it up. The law changed shortly thereafter. I would given anything to have that happen again. It was something I will never forget.

[R-Dub]

No frost this morning PNA forecast continues to look better and better each day! Most members showing moderate negitive now at least for a short time the first part of Feb.

1/28/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:52:43 AM CURRENT
Mostly Clear
Temperature (ºF) 42.1
Humidity (%) 80.8
Wind (mph) ESE 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.77
Dew Point: 36.6 ºF

[andycottle]

Good Morning all! Our skies this morning are clear and no fog here what so ever. Though it may turn Partly cloudy later on this morning as the first visable satellite image of the morning is showinga good deal of clouds around Western Washington. Temp at 8:45am is 40 with humidity 100%, DP 41, and baro is steady at 29.50. Our low got down to 37.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard...

Here is a posting I made a little while ago that explains why in deep arctic air situations there is no downsloping effect (I found this to be fascinating)...

I just learned during the last arctic outbreak (from a Spokane AFD) that a cold air dome essentially "masks" the mountains in an over-running situation. The warm air going up and over the cold dome produces snow and the cold air is so dense that enhancement or downsloping from the mountains is negated. The result is that the snow just falls uniformly to the ground.

A perfect example from the tape... there was a great deal of footage from North Bend and it showed some intense wind there. That was an easterly wind and should have caused downsloping and dried the air. But North Bend got as much (or more) snow than other places in Western Washington.

[R-Dub]

I like the looks of the 12z GFS, 8 day and after. There looks to be a trend starting to happen

[R-Dub]

You know we are in a dull weather pattern when this is all NWS has to say.........

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 830 AM PST FRI JAN 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...MUCH CLEARER IN NW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING THAN FORECAST. SHOULD BE SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM OREGON THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY UPDATE FOR LESS CLOUDS THIS MORNING. GUSTY EAST WINDS NOTED IN PASS REPORTS AND MAY BOOST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. QUIET WEEK AHEAD. BURKE

[Guest]

Yeah TT... That websight was an amazing... I don't know how you came across something like that. I think I could spend days looking and reading that stuff.
As for the latest 12z GFS... It actually shows us quite cold by day 7-8... The trend is definately getting better and better. I don't like what happens to the trough after it digs out a little in the west. It quickly pushes east and we are under another ridge. I think this will slowly change by each run. It has been getting better and better with each run up to now with the exception of the crappy 6z. This trend will continue and I wouldn't be surprised if we were in the celler by next weekend.

[Guest]

Just to let everyone know, this is my name when I am on a school computer so don't send a message to this name because rarely do I ever use it. I just liked the looks of the 12z and got a bit excited... I had to read what people were saying as well. Can't wait to see the tapes that everyone has been talking about.

[andycottle]

Hi folks.

Taking a look at the ECMWF and NOGAPS for next Monday - Thursday....both models show 500MB heights being around 570 to 576DM by mid-late next week. May see a cooling trend in the longer run. GFS 06z showing 850MB temps of +3C going briefly down to 0C and then up around +6C by Thursday/Friday time frame. From what I see on the NOGAPS model, it appears we have some showers for the Monday/early tuesday time frame...with drier weather for later on Tuesday. Wednesday also featuring a dry day.

So that`s how the weather is shaping up to be right. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Just checked the latest NAOhttp://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/gary.bates/tele/nao.gif , and it shows a somewhat to fairly negative pattern in the short and in the long term for just after the first of Febuary, while the PNA is shoing a positive pattern in the short/long term. So maybe some cooler weather in store for us.. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Despite some wounderful clear skies early this morning, we now have some light sprinkles right now as of 11:23am. And also, there is some dim sunlight peaking through the clouds as well. Current temp is 52 degrees with humidity 67% and baro still holding steady at 29.50. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

andycottle,

For cold weather in the Pacific Northwest, you want a NEGATIVE PNA and positive NAO. So if your information is correct, that's not looking good.

In any event, although the latest GFS models do indicate a cooler pattern eventually evolving, I still don't see arctic air. In the medium range, a highly amplified rigde is located at 135W which isn't good for arctic air in Western Washington...it needs to retrograde between 140-150W. By the middle of February, a possible trough tries to shift down the British Columbia coast, but it's too far away to take anything serious.

Did anyone notice...while watching the tapes...that the arctic outbreaks NEVER had amplified ridges at 150W? Yet how did the arctic air funnel through Western Washington? I guess surface lows brought that arctic air down.

Anthony

ANOTHER mild day...about 53 F with cloudy conditions. BLAH, BLAH, BLAH...

[andycottle]

Anthony....please if you will, just call me Andy next time..ok..

[Brian_from_bellingham]

It is true that the trend is better for cold weather over the last day or two, but it has a LONG way to go before it shows anything good for us. I guess it is like being down 28-0 in football and scoring a touchdown. Good trend, but still down 28-7. CPC still shows us warm and dry for the next two weeks. Maybe in a few days it will be 28-28, so at least there is a little hope. Better then 28-0 at least.

[Brian_from_bellingham]

TT, thanks for the link to the January 1950. The thing I dont like about it is that it makes me jealous, I wish it was talking about this year . . .

[andycottle]

Looking at today 12z and 18z GFS models...it appears that 12z only keeps the 'cool' air over us for the 7th - 8th...while the 18z is just a tad cooler and has the cooler weather going from the 7th - 13th. So maybe we can get some snow in the mountains if this cooler and somewhat moist air comes over us.

Cloudy skies with a temp of 54 and humidity 55% at 3:38pm. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Could be more then just the mountains getting snow perhaps!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192m.gif

-15MB 850 Temps by day 8!!! Looks to go away quickly, but I think its a trend thing that will stay with us longer!!!! Even if it doesn't, we could get at least some snow out of it!. Looking better and better folks!!

[R-Dub]

I think by tomarrow, the PNA forecast will be even deeper negitive, that has been the trend. Right now GFS is correlating well with the dip in the PNA! I think winter will be back real soon!! If it was showing that at day 16 I would be a ton more sceptical, but the fact that it shows much colder air only 7 days out is a very good sign!

[R-Dub]

Everyone must be out partying on this Friday night, quiet here!!

Well Todd Johnson mentioned that it could get a lot colder by next weekend! He is offically the first local meterologist to hint at this!

[andycottle]

Hey Randy:) Yeah...your right. it is quite on this thread tonight. Hmmmm....gota be more weather to chat about..lol. Ok...think I`ll do some math now. -- Andy