Central Texas

[gboudx]

Hey Captin when do you think some dates during February will be for snow here in north Texas? Is there any chance this weekend?

I ain't CC, but you can plan to not have any snow, sleet or freezing rain this weekend.

[chris07dabomb]

Dont be so sure, you never know!!!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Hey Captin when do you think some dates during February will be for snow here in north Texas? Is there any chance this weekend?

I ain't CC, but you can plan to not have any snow, sleet or freezing rain this weekend.

That's right, NO sleet, snow, or freezing rain this weekend, the temp's won't be cold enought.

[Kelarie]

I like the fact that last week there wasn't even a chance of "winter precip" even in the picture and now they are decreasing the max temps.

UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE TODAY'S MAX TEMPS BY 1-3 DEGREES GIVEN SOLID OVERRUNNING PATTERN...ONGOING PRECIP AND A LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES TODAY WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES AREA-WIDE. ALSO INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY BASED ON 12Z MODEL OUTPUT WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. INCREASED QPF FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE QPF FURTHER FOR TOMORROW BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE ANALYSIS BEFORE DOING SO.

FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT TO CWFA EWX TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. IT MIGHT BE ON THE LOW-END OF PROBABILITIES FOR NORTHERN VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL AND KERR COUNTIES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME IT GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTER-TYPE PRECIP.

[CaptinCrunch]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-010300-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-FISHER TX-
HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
STERLING TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-TOM GREEN TX-
1201 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OZONA TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM STERLING
CITY TO ABILENE TO ALBANY.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS READINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 30 TO 34 DEGREES...AND
THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

[Kelarie]

Any chance of this moving over to the Austin area?

[CaptinCrunch]

Any chance of this moving over to the Austin area?

Sorry but everything will be well to N and NW of Waco Tx.

[Kelarie]

The latest....nothing winter precip wise now like CC has said, but this is for next week...interesting...

AFTER SHORTWAVE NUMBER ONE MOVES OUT...A BIG LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE-OFF OVER NW MEXICO AND SIT THERE FOR A COUPLE DAYS WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT SOME POINT IN TIME...AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE KICKED-OUT TO THE EAST...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS THIS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 12Z GFS
HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONSENSUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT POPS REENTERING THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE'LL KEEP POPS LOW (20 PERCENT...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS) THROUGH MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY TREND UP WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

THIS PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING (AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF) BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER...MORE POTENT UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BARRELLING DOWN THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. WILL OBVIOUSLY WAIT FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE SOUNDING THE ALARM-BELLS...BUT IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IT IS NOTABLE THAT WE'VE
HAD WINTER-TYPE PRECIP EVENTS NEAR VALENTINE'S DAY THE PAST TWO YEARS.

[CaptinCrunch]

The latest....nothing winter precip wise now like CC has said, but this is for next week...interesting...

AFTER SHORTWAVE NUMBER ONE MOVES OUT...A BIG LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE-OFF OVER NW MEXICO AND SIT THERE FOR A COUPLE DAYS WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT SOME POINT IN TIME...AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE KICKED-OUT TO THE EAST...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS THIS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 12Z GFS
HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. DUE TO THIS LACK OF CONSENSUS...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT POPS REENTERING THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE'LL KEEP POPS LOW (20 PERCENT...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS) THROUGH MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY TREND UP WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

THIS PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING (AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF) BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER...MORE POTENT UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BARRELLING DOWN THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. WILL OBVIOUSLY WAIT FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE SOUNDING THE ALARM-BELLS...BUT IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IT IS NOTABLE THAT WE'VE
HAD WINTER-TYPE PRECIP EVENTS NEAR VALENTINE'S DAY THE PAST TWO YEARS.

Will wait and see, GFSMR, EURO and ECMWF models does show a cold front coming down into the central plains, but washes it off to the east just as it reaches TX and will not be as cold as it has been the past week here.

[Kelarie]

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD AND WET DAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP DEPICTS RAIN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES TEXAS. ONCE AGAIN FEEL THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR IS NOT AS GREAT. KEWX AND KDFX VAD WIND PROFILES DEPICT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 4 TO 6K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DEPTH OF COLD AIR WILL HELP INHIBIT TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS TODAY DUE TO PCPN...MODERATE CAA AND OVERCAST SKIES.

A BRIEF SPELL OF WINTERY PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TEXAS. ATTM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH SLICK ROADS AND BRIDGES BEING THE MAIN TRAVEL ISSUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTWARD EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER NORTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMUP WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A TROF AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS MONDAYNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF.

WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING IN REFERENCE TO THE POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. IF THE SNOW EVENT OCCURS THEN A SNOW ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

[chris07dabomb]

Even though I am bummed out on no cold and snow for north Texas, I have to say this 73 degree weather is nice.