Tropical Atlantic is warm considering time of year

[cycloneye]

Those anomalys and surface temps are warming east of the lesser antilles especially south of 15.0n latitud and it's not summer yet.Imagine when the hot months arrive hurricane speaking.But as we know the ssts factor is not the only one to look at when hurricane season arrives but is a fuel for tropical disturbances moving from the African Coast.

[P.K.]

Those anomalys and surface temps are warming east of the lesser antilles especially south of 15.0n latitud and it's not summer yet.Imagine when the hot months arrive hurricane speaking.

Isn't this partly due to the oceans being in the warm part of their cycle though? How do the anomalies compare to last year at the end of Jan?

[cycloneye]

Those anomalys and surface temps are warming east of the lesser antilles especially south of 15.0n latitud and it's not summer yet.Imagine when the hot months arrive hurricane speaking.

Isn't this partly due to the oceans being in the warm part of their cycle though? How do the anomalies compare to last year at the end of Jan?

Yes the Atlantic Thermoline Circulation has been there since 1995.I lost all the archieves I had when my PC burned so I also want to see last years temps.

[P.K.]

From google:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/goos/trinanes/data/pentad/0407.anom.png

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/goos/trinanes/sstatlantic.html

[cycloneye]

From google:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/goos/trinanes/data/pentad/0407.anom.png

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/goos/trinanes/sstatlantic.html

Thanks P.K.It looks a little less warm last year at January 31 than this year comparing images.

[Derek Ortt]

they've been above normal for the past several years

maybe the mean needs to be re-examined

[HURAKAN]

they've been above normal for the past several years

maybe the mean needs to be re-examined

Interesting about the anomalies, but I think Derek has a good point.

[donsutherland1]

The December 2004 Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA) was the highest on record for December at +0.75. FWIW, there were four previous years when the TNA came to +0.50 or above in December and 3/4 had above normal tropical activity in the following hurricane season:

Names Storms:
1953: 14
1963: 9
1988: 12
2002: 12

Average: 11.75

[cycloneye]

Those stats Don says that the Tropical Atlantic mean area will be very warm comming the peak of the season which means that all who live in the islands will have to look eastward many times looking for tropical activity.

[canegrl04]

Uh oh.Looks like hurricane season 2005 is going to rocknroll like last year

[Derek Ortt]

2002 is considered to be a <b>BELOW</b> normal year as we had very few hurricane days and only 4 hurricanes. Also, the named storm days was also quite small as many of the storms either made landfall or dissipated immediately after becomming storms

[donsutherland1]

Fair point, Derek. I was focusing the single criterion of named storms.

[HurricaneBill]

Is 1990 considered below average or above average?

Although there were 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes, only one (Hurricane Gustav) became a major hurricane.

[MWatkins]

they've been above normal for the past several years

maybe the mean needs to be re-examined

IMHO I don't think this is the issue. No question at all that research shows that we are in a period of enhanced Atlantic SST's compared to the 70's, 80's and early 90's. If anything I would think that some consideration should be given to our improved ability to estimate SST's compared to the technology available 20 years ago.

If there is any doubt about warm SST's...one only needs to compare TC/hurricane activity between the two periods (last 10 years vs. 70's, 80's an early 90's).

I doubt the means are skewed. We're in the heart of a multi-decadal cycle and it's showing up in the data.

MW