Snow for Dallas and points North...

[Johnny]

Wow....more snow for Northeast, Texas tomorrow and into tomorrow night.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 AM CST MON JAN 31 2005

.UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER ALL WEEKEND...AND THIS PUTS COUNTIES
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO PARIS IN LINE FOR SOME SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY UP TO TWO INCHES EASTLAND AND YOUNG COUNTIES
DIMINISHING TO A TRACE OR SO COMANCHE...METROPLEX...PARIS. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AROUND NOON TUESDAY AND SPREAD EAST TO THE
METROPLEX NEAR MIDNIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF SNOW AREAS EXPECTED AS WELL...A VERY WET SYSTEM.
WILD CARD IS HOW MUCH THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THE RAIN. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IF WE GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH WE COULD COOL OFF FASTER
AND CHANGEOVER WILL BE EARLIER THAN OVERNIGHT IN METROPLEX. MORE TO
COME WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
SEE SPSFWD AS WELL.

[jeff]

Winter Storm Watch in effect for Tuesday and Tuesday night for Dallas/ Fort Worth. Mainly along and N of I-20 and West of I-35.

Decent snowfall expected over N TX on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Strong upper trough over the SW US will eject into TX Tuesday morning and cross N TX during the afternoon and evening.

Rain will change to snow over the western 1/3rd of N TX by early afternoon and along and north of I-20 by late afternoon. Cooling effect of the snow will drop the air column below freezing allowing some accumulations. A widespread band of 3-5 inches will be common from Midland and Lubbock to W of Dallas. 1-2 inches will be common over the metro area with 2-4 inches north of Dallas and Tarrant counties. Totals may be a little low and some places may see a foot or so given heavy snow bands and strong forced ascent as well as profile cooling. The sooner the changeover the greater the snow amounts.

Roads will become increasingly icy and snow packed by early evening and travel is strongly discouraged.

Jeff L

[Yankeegirl]

I am so jealous....

[aggiecutter]

The GFS Ensembles saw this coming 10 days ago.

[misty]

Any chance of the snow getting to texarkana or around there. I know it says in one discussion that if changeover occurs while precip is heavy, it could go I-30 east.

[JenyEliza]

I am so jealous....

Me too. We had our first winter wx event of this winter with sleet/freezing rain and ice accumulations (about 1") in Atlanta over the weekend...but we really wanted SNOW.

Jeny

[chris07dabomb]

They are saying here in Denison,TX we have a chance for 3-6 inches of snow!! But the possibility exist for alot more of alot less.

[PTrackerLA]

Enjoy the snow, we're only going to have a cold rain down here. Currently 42 degrees and LOTS of more rain on its way.

[KatDaddy]

Excerpt from San Antonio/Austin AFD

Models hint at possible winter event for Central and S Central TX next week. This is the first I have heard anything and will watch the model runs.


THIS PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING (AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z
ECMWF) BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER...MORE POTENT UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BARRELLING DOWN
THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. WILL OBVIOUSLY WAIT FOR MORE RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE SOUNDING THE ALARM-BELLS...BUT IT IS
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IT IS NOTABLE THAT WE'VE
HAD WINTER-TYPE PRECIP EVENTS NEAR VALENTINE'S DAY THE PAST TWO
YEARS.

[jeff]

Excerpt from San Antonio/Austin AFD

Models hint at possible winter event for Central and S Central TX next week. This is the first I have heard anything and will watch the model runs.


THIS PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE INTERESTING (AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z
ECMWF) BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER...MORE POTENT UPPER LOW
DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BARRELLING DOWN
THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. WILL OBVIOUSLY WAIT FOR MORE RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE SOUNDING THE ALARM-BELLS...BUT IT IS
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. IT IS NOTABLE THAT WE'VE
HAD WINTER-TYPE PRECIP EVENTS NEAR VALENTINE'S DAY THE PAST TWO
YEARS.

They may have jumped the gun on this one. I am not seeing enough cold air in any of the models. Moisture yes, cold air is very questionable.

[jkt21787]

Jeff, what are thoughts about this potentially reaching Memphis by Wednesday or so? The models indicate a decent amount of precip, a half inch or so on NAM, much less on GFS. The 850 0c temp is near or below Memphis much of the period, and thicknessess go below 540 by Wednesday Evening. The one fly in the ointment appears to be surface temps right now, even though 850s are at least marginally favorable, soundings indicate sfc temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s. This would seem to point to more of a non-accumulatiing wet snow as of this point.

NWS Memphis has no mention of snow in their forecast, but Little Rock, Tulsa, Shreveport, Paducah and Springfield does, and Nashville and Huntsville mention maybe adding it in theirs. Memphis has not addressed the precip type issue though.

[jeff]

Jeff, what are thoughts about this potentially reaching Memphis by Wednesday or so? The models indicate a decent amount of precip, a half inch or so on NAM, much less on GFS. The 850 0c temp is near or below Memphis much of the period, and thicknessess go below 540 by Wednesday Evening. The one fly in the ointment appears to be surface temps right now, even though 850s are at least marginally favorable, soundings indicate sfc temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s. This would seem to point to more of a non-accumulatiing wet snow as of this point.

NWS Memphis has no mention of snow in their forecast, but Little Rock, Tulsa, Shreveport, Paducah and Springfield does, and Nashville and Huntsville mention maybe adding it in theirs. Memphis has not addressed the precip type issue though.

Maybe a rain/snow mix. If the lowest levels can be cooled (snow falling for an extended period), or if it is heavy enough, there may be some minor accumulations.

[jkt21787]

Thanks for your quick response Jeff. If we can see some dynamic cooling as the precipitation falls, that would help our situation a lot. Little Rock is indicating up to an inch in some areas.

Back during the winter before last, we had a similar situation when light rain changed to snow and became quite heavy for a time, and accumulated 1 1/2 inches, with the surface temp in the mid 30s.

We'll see how this plays out over the next couple of days.

[jeff]

Thanks for your quick response Jeff. If we can see some dynamic cooling as the precipitation falls, that would help our situation a lot. Little Rock is indicating up to an inch in some areas.

Back during the winter before last, we had a similar situation when light rain changed to snow and became quite heavy for a time, and accumulated 1 1/2 inches, with the surface temp in the mid 30s.

We'll see how this plays out over the next couple of days.

Is your area not covered by a S2K forecaster?? Just wondering.

[jkt21787]

Thanks for your quick response Jeff. If we can see some dynamic cooling as the precipitation falls, that would help our situation a lot. Little Rock is indicating up to an inch in some areas.

Back during the winter before last, we had a similar situation when light rain changed to snow and became quite heavy for a time, and accumulated 1 1/2 inches, with the surface temp in the mid 30s.

We'll see how this plays out over the next couple of days.

Is your area not covered by a S2K forecaster?? Just wondering.

Honestly, I don't know. Certainly that brings up an interesting point. There probably is, and I have probably talked to him/her before, but never realized it. I know there is a NWS Memphis employee who posts here, but he is not indicated as a S2K forecaster under his name as you are, he is indicated as a professional met.

If you have any information, I sure would appreciate it. I apologize for asking you a question about Memphis when your area is Houston, I never thought of that before. Thanks a lot for your answer though!

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for your quick response Jeff. If we can see some dynamic cooling as the precipitation falls, that would help our situation a lot. Little Rock is indicating up to an inch in some areas.

Back during the winter before last, we had a similar situation when light rain changed to snow and became quite heavy for a time, and accumulated 1 1/2 inches, with the surface temp in the mid 30s.

We'll see how this plays out over the next couple of days.

Is your area not covered by a S2K forecaster?? Just wondering.

ALHurricane is there. He works in the Memphis NWS office now. He was one of our forecasters, but he decided he wouldn't have enough time to do both. Of course when he was forecasting on a regular basis for us he was still in school and into the tropics, which of course Memphis isn't.

[AnthonyC]

This is gonna be a marginal event. For this to unfold, alot of dynamics need to come together...and my gut feeling doesn't feel this will evolve into a major, WINTER storm. I honestly think Dallas will stay a rain event...possibly mixing with wet snow at the very end. Amarillo may see some snow...possible accumulations...but even that is marginal. There's just not enough cold air...there's not an arctic airmass coming down from Canada. But keep your fingers crossed...all I can say is if Dallas gets a snow event, Seattle better be next.

Anthony

[chris07dabomb]

I think we will get snow, so dont be disin on us. We are under a winter storm watch!!!!!!!!!

[jeff]

Winter Storm Watch replaced with a Snow Advisory for the NW 1/2 of N TX.

Potent upper level low moving into W TX this morning with snow falling from the Big Bend to south of Lubbock and expanding NE.

Strong isentropic ascent and moisture advection continues over much of TX this morning ahead of this strong low. The profiles suggest rain changing to snow from San Angelo to Mineral Wells by mid morning and then over the metroplex by mid afternoon. I am somewhat worried about the above freezing layer near the surface (currents obs show temps near 40) and the havoc it may play with overall accumulations. However, given the convective cooling and overall general cooling of the low layer through precipitation, we should be close enough over the metroplex to squeeze out an inch or so on the ground. Off to the west and north totals will be much higher (3-5 inches).

As the upper low crosses the state this evening wrap around moisture may produce light snow as far as as Waco and Temple where a dusting is possible.

Note: Meso-scale influences can make a big difference in totals as well as the exact track of the upper level cold pool.

Heavy rains will continue E of I-35 for most of the day adding additional run-off to already swelling rivers. We could get some problems on the Brazos, Navasota, Trinity, and Neches Rivers by the end of the week.

Visit local NWS offices for current watches, warnings, and advisories on this developing winter weather event.

JL

[Yankeegirl]

Hey Jeff, is our winter over for here?