Tropical Cyclone LOLA develops in the South Pacific!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE [990hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 176.5W
AT 311800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND 311837Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTED SINCE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS LOCATED TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF LLCC MAKING IT A SHEAR PATTERN. DRY AIR INTRUSION EVIDEND TO THE SOUTHWEST QUARDRANT WHICH INHIBITS CONVECTION. SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS GOOD IN OTHER SECTORS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST EXPECTED TO HELP STEER LOLA GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON GRADUAL WEAKENING WHILST TRACKING SOUTH AND SLOWING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 24.5S 175.9W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 26.3S 175.3W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 27.2S 175.0W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 28.1S 174.7W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 010230 UTC.



Dvorak: 2.5T

The JTWC still doesn't recognize "LOLA" as a tropical cyclone and I hope nothing like the situation with "FELAPI" will happen again.

[senorpepr]

Also, the JTWC didn't upgrade Invest 95S, which was upgraded to TD 12R by Meteo France.

[cycloneye]

Also, the JTWC didn't upgrade Invest 95S, which was upgraded to TD 12R by Meteo France.

Why is that occuring in that branch?People lazy there or what?

[senorpepr]

Well, in my opinion, I believe it has to do with difference in criteria. The JTWC may have stricter guidance than Meteo France - Reunion (MFR) or the Fiji Met Service (FMS). Also, the JTWC has a different experience pool than MFR or FMS. Lastly, MFR's and FMS's forecast affects locals there on Reunion and Fiji, respectively, whereas JTWC's forecast is strictly military guidance and, since there are limited points of interest, is low-priority.

[cycloneye]

Well, in my opinion, I believe it has to do with difference in criteria. The JTWC may have stricter guidance than Meteo France - Reunion (MFR) or the Fiji Met Service (FMS). Also, the JTWC has a different experience pool than MFR or FMS. Lastly, MFR's and FMS's forecast affects locals there on Reunion and Fiji, respectively, whereas JTWC's forecast is strictly military guidance and, since there are limited points of interest, is low-priority.

Ok Mike thanks for that explanation.Now I see why they work hard on the WPAC systems and less on the Southern Hemisphere ones.

[HURAKAN]

This "problem" may be long to discusse but, since I have been watching the basins around the world, everytime the a system makes it to 2.5 the JTWC immediately jumps to the system. Also, is misleading to have an already name system as "an area of poor development in the next 24 hours." I can understand that this systems that form in the middle of nowhere are not a huge problem to anyone and we should not be overly concern, but at least for me, every system has an importance.

[senorpepr]

This "problem" may be long to discusse but, since I have been watching the basins around the world, everytime the a system makes it to 2.5 the JTWC immediately jumps to the system. Also, is misleading to have an already name system as "an area of poor development in the next 24 hours." I can understand that this systems that form in the middle of nowhere are not a huge problem to anyone and we should not be overly concern, but at least for me, every system has an importance.

But what it comes down to is an operational issue. The JTWC is not responsible for this area. For "official" information in these basins, we are to go to the official RSMC. In the case of 12R (95S) we should turn to Meteo France, not the JTWC. In the case of 06F (96P) we should turn to the Fiji Met Service, not the JTWC. The JTWC's purpose is nothing when it comes to the general public. The JTWC's purpose is to protect the life and property of military assests. Therefore, from an operational standpoint, these two systems are not that important.

With that said, I do agree that the JTWC should have picked up the ball.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0138 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE [994hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 175.6W AT 010000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND 312034Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

LLCC PARTLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO JUST SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING. DRY AIR INTRUSION REMAINS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SUPRESSED CONVECTION. SYSTEM APPEARS SHEARED AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS GOOD IN OTHER SECTORS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH WRAP .35 PATTERN YIELDS T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST EXPECTED TO HELP STEER LOLA GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODEL CONCENSUS GENERALLY AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WHILST TRACKING LOLA INITIALLY SOUTH BEFORE CURVING WESTWARDS AND SLOWING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 24.8S 175.4W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 25.5S 176.3W MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 25.1S 177.9W MOV WNW AT 08 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 24.5S 179.6W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 010830 UTC.


LOLA seems to have begun to go downhill.

[senorpepr]

Yup.... down to 45 mph from 50 mph. (That is if you convert from 10-minute average to 1-minute average and from knots to mph.)

[Derek Ortt]

JTWC has become a mere joke during the last few years and I refuse even to consider what they are saying. In fact, during the weke where I give the HRD map discussions, I use the JMA data as it is far more reliable

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 01/1513 UTC 2005 UTC.

Correction to Dvorak analysis...

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1S 175.1W AT 011200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND 010904Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 1 DEG TO SOUTHEAST OF EXPOSED LLCC. DRY AIR INTRUSION REMAINS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS GOOD IN OTHER SECTORS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC 0.7 DEGREES FROM DEEP CONVECTION YIELDS T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST EXPECTED TO STEER WEAKENING RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF TC LOLA TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WITH CONSENSUS TRACK CURVING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND SLOWING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 25.9S 176.1W MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 25.5S 177.7W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 24.9S 179.4W MOV WNW AT 5 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 24.7S 179.6W MOV NW AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LOLA UNLESS IT RE-DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES BACK INTO NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.


LOLA is finally out of the picture, last advisory has been issued.

[senorpepr]

LOLA is finally out of the picture, last advisory has been issued.

Correction, it's not out of the picture. Lola has left Nadi's area of responsibility. Wellington has the job now. Regardless, Lola is rather weather and all guidance indicates the trend of further weakening.

[HURAKAN]

LOLA is finally out of the picture, last advisory has been issued.

Correction, it's not out of the picture. Lola has left Nadi's area of responsibility. Wellington has the job now. Regardless, Lola is rather weather and all guidance indicates the trend of further weakening.

Sorry Senorpepr, you are right, I didn't read the entire document. Here is the lastest information from Wellington:

-------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone LOLA centre [995 hPa] was located near 25 decimal 1 South 174 decimal 5 West at 011800 UTC.

Position Poor.

Repeat position 25.1S 174.5W at 011800 UTC.

Cyclone slow moving and expected to gradually curve northwest.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to centre.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in sectors from northeast through east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 24.5S 175.6W at 020600 UTC.
and near 24.0S 177.0W at 021800 UTC.

This warning issued from Wellington Feb 01/1904 UTC 2005 UTC.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 007.

[senorpepr]

Here is the lastest information from Wellington:

Hey, where did you find this bulletin? I've been looking around for MSNZ bulletins...

[senorpepr]

Here is the lastest information from Wellington:

Hey, where did you find this bulletin? I've been looking around for MSNZ bulletins...

Disregard. I finally found it.