interesting for the Carolinas in a few days ?

[rsvh2000]

Am I starting to see some POSSIBLE indications of POSSIBLE winter weather for Greenville, SC. maybe Cola, SC ?? if the GOM cranks up ?? But how much cold air ? Impact of track in relation to who and how much POSSIBLE winter weather ?? Inquiring minds want to know.......

[DS]

Its looking very unlikely that anyone besides extreme N & NW SC (Greenville) will get frozen precip. There is no big high to the northeast (unlike last weekend) and this miniature "Miller A" storm usually does not give SC any frozen precip at all. The best hope would be a rain snow mix, at least no freezing rain.

[rsvh2000]

From Columbia NWS (2/1 morning forecast). Stormsfury, you out there with any prognostics yet ?



FXUS62 KCAE 010856
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2005

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY THEN TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY
THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...STORM TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARD NORTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN TO GEORGIA COAST
EARLY THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY SETTING UP POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION...AS
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF COAST DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY. PREFER GFS SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACK AND THICKNESS PATTERN. WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER AREA EXPECT LOW
PRESSURE TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NOT MOVE INLAND LIKE ETA SOLUTION. SO
GOING WITH COLDER GUIDANCE...AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM
WEDNEDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS AREA...HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM
GULF COAST AREA EXPECT MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT WITH CLOUDINESS WENT WITH COOLER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIRMASS DRY EARLY WEDNEDAY BUT
BY AFTERNOON GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE CSRA...SO
INCREASING CHANCE PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB...RESULTING
DEEP OMEGA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
TENNESSEE. CATEGORICAL POPS...THEN CHANCE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE.


PARTIAL THICKNESS PATTERN SUGGEST GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND FAVOR RAIN AS MAIN PRECIP TYPE. MODEL PRECIP TYPE
SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN BUT SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE
0C...SO WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. KEEP IN MIND GFS
MAY NOT HANDLE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DAMMING THAT WELL. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK THAT COLD THOUGH.

HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLEET THREAT NORTH AND WEST
OF CAE ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENT. THEN...AS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH AREA LATE THURSDAY...THICKNESS AND BETTER SNOW GROWTH
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS...DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY FROM CAE
TO PEE DEE. CUT MOS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO COLD AIR
DAMMING EXPECTED.

[RevDodd]

We're back to waiting to see where the low tracks. Raleigh this morning was blending models, suggesting snow/sleet along the old Bunnlevel line, with sleet and cold rain, changing over to light snow for the Sandhills.

If you can get the low to track a tad further south, and we can track just a touch east, we'll both have something to enjoy, rather than slog through, come Thursday evening.

More interesting, Raleigh NWS discussion mentioned the possibilty of banding, increasing potential snowfall through the Piedmont.

It ain't the storm of the century (even a century just a few years old) but heck, it's fun to watch it develop.

[Stormsfury]

Still unclear ... the differences at 60 hours is astounding ... the situation itself for ANYONE to get heavy, wet snow is almost purely dynamical (within a deformation band drawing colder air from aloft around the 500mb low). The oceanic low is also wreaking havoc on what is right, what is wrong.

Models are depicting a fujiwhara effect between the 500mb lows and really when and where the 500mb low over the SE, and SFC development occurs basically is the issue ... where? ... Best guesstimate is that W NC, extreme NW SC are the winners here with snow.

SF

[Anonymous]

I already have made arrangements to be up there early THURS morning, anywhere from upstate SC to western NC mountains could see potentially some accumulations. 3 to 5" possible in mountains of NC. Looks primarily like a cold rain event from east of Greenville to CHAS, but it sure could get interesting west of GSP......

[rsvh2000]

I see a winter weather advisory has been issued for extreme NW SC for possible sleet moving in this am. Consensus among the mets and the NWS seem to still indicate all rain for Columbia south (that's the area I am most interested in) - maybe some flurries above Columbia, but nothing more. Anybody thinking anything any differently. Thanks for your thoughts.

SVH

[Carolina_survivor]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EST WED FEB 2 2005

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING MOVEMENT OF
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL CYCLONES AS WELL AS PRECIP ARRIVAL AND BETTER
CONSENSUS ON THERMAL STRUCTURE FOR THU INTO THU EVENING.
THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON PREDOMINATE P-TYPE
(BUT STILL NOT SOLD 100%). HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL NOTED IN
QPF AMOUNTS WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON PROJECTED P-TYPE AMOUNTS
AFFECTING POTENTIAL WINTER STORM CRITERIA.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...APPEARS THREAT FOR PRECIP INCREASES TOWARD
MORNING IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT. PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF BY MID DAY AS
MID/UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES DUE TO NOSE OF H3 CROSSING THE DEEP
SOUTH/SE U.S. COAST PLACING CENTRAL NC IN LEFT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED THU AFTERNOON AS SECONDARY
H850 LOW DEVELOPS OVER SC.

USED A BLEND OF ETA/QPF TO GET QPF AMOUNTS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS. USING A RATIO OF 5:1 / 6:1 DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN MIXING WITH
SNOW AT TIMES SUGGEST ABOUT 3 INCH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR NW
PIEDMONT. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH INCLUDING NE PIEDMONT...WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SNOWFALL SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES
WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A THIN ICE GLAZE. THIS REGION WILL LIKELY
NEED AN ADVISORY BUT THIS CAN BE DETERMINED IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IF A 8:1 RATIO IS USED...MAY SEE SNOWFALL IN THE NE
PIEDMONT CLOSE TO WINTER STORM CRITERIA BUT EXPECTING A DECENT
SNOW/RAIN MIX THU AFTERNOON EVENING THUS USING THE 5:1 - 6:1 RATIO.


CAVEATS TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE:
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP BANDING LATE THU AND THU EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILL COUNTIES AS CLOSED H7
CIRCULATION PASSES SOUTH OF AREA. IF AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH...MAY
SUPPORT NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW IN THIS REGION;

POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ANCHOR PARENT SURFACE HIGH FARTHER WEST
THAN INDICATED BY MODELS THU. WITH CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO
EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY THU MORNING FROM PRE DAWN
READINGS. IF WEAK HORIZONTAL TEMP ADVECTION CAN BE ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC THU...MAY SEE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ICE GLAZE
OVER THE NE PIEDMONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS
THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FORESEE ICE ACCRUAL
THAT WOULD WARRANT A WATCH/WARNING FOR ICE.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU NIGHT AS LOW PROGRESSES
EAST. A BIT CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TOO
SLOWLY OFF THE GA/SC COAST AS POTENTIAL FOR UPPER JET TO ENHANCE LOW
PLUS SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE GULF STREAM. QUICK LOOK AT ASCII
INDICATE THAT PRE-CONDITIONS PARAMETERS NOT BE MEET THUS CYCLO
BOMBING APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FRI AS PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO
REGION.
&&