Snow for Dallas and points North...

[jeff]

Hey Jeff, is our winter over for here?

I would not say winter is over until middle March. I usually gage it by when the Pecan mesquite trees bud (has never failed yet).

Some of the biggest winter weather events have happened in Feb. With the last two years seeing snow around Feb 14th across the central and northern part of the state. 2 years ago we got down to 17 in early March at KCLL.

We have had highs in the 50's in April and May!

[vbhoutex]

Hey Jeff, is our winter over for here?

I know you are from the north, but down here we call this "dead of winter"-winter at its' yuckiest-cold temps and rain, rain, rain.

[gboudx]

Anyone know if there is a map somewhere that shows the freezing line?

[jeff]

Anyone know if there is a map somewhere that shows the freezing line?

There is probably one out there, I just do not konw about it. I use the UCAR obs to define the freezing line

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... i&nplots=1

Still well to your west. Looking at the AM sounding from Fort Worth it is above freezing through the 750mb level. Lots of work to be done , but the cold pool is moving in from the west which should help to cool the air column (ie KMAF sounding is frozen from 881mb upward with 500mb temps. of -22 C)

[gboudx]

Thanks Jeff. The Intellicast radar gives a decent depiction of the precip type and I'll look at it from time-to-time today. I'm not expecting anything in my area until early evening.

[TexasStooge]

A Snow Advisory is in effect for the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area right now.

[Yankeegirl]

Thanks for the speedy responces.. I will take a note about the dead of winter.. lol...

[gboudx]

I may be completely wrong, but I'm going out on a limb here. I don't think this wintry event is gonna be much of a big deal for DFW, and my area just east of it in particular. Why? Below are a couple snippets, 1st from the San Angelo NWS, then from the DFW NWS. The DFW AFD mentions the warm layer at 4500 ft. I've seen this before, where this layer of warm air keeps the precip all rain, with very minimal wintry precip. I'm not as excited about snow today as I was yesterday. But I'm very amateurists. Can anyone with more experience offer their opinion based on these NWS discussions?

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1044 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2005

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH WE
BELIEVE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE MAY BE TOO HEAVY WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS.

TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...WILL
REALLY CUT OF PRECIP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

--------
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2005

.PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
WILL SOON BE UPDATING ZONES TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PERIOD. NEW MODEL RUNS SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THICKNESS COOLING...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE SNOW ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...ON THE 12Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING THERE IS A WARM DRY LAYER THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 4500 FT
THICK. IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF ENERGY TO COOL THIS LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION ALL THE WAY OVER TO SNOW. AS A RESULT
...IT NOW APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON

[CaptinCrunch]

gboudx,

I don't think it will be a big deal either, yesterday i felt like it would drop a few inches across Tarrant Co. and NW Dallas Co. but as of now I really don't see much more than a 1" dusting for the D/FW area. I will be suprised if any more than that falls, and like the NWS has said it will only stick to the grassy surfaces and driving won't be bad for the Wed morning drive to work.

[gboudx]

CC, what sticks out in the 2 AFDs is the San Angelo mentioning that the tremendous amount of dry air moving in and shutting off the precip, and the DFW AFD mentioning that the thickness cooling is slowing it's eastward movement. It seems these 2 will meet up and crash the DFW snow party. At least we had the surprise snow before Xmas.

[CaptinCrunch]

CC, what sticks out in the 2 AFDs is the San Angelo mentioning that the tremendous amount of dry air moving in and shutting off the precip, and the DFW AFD mentioning that the thickness cooling is slowing it's eastward movement. It seems these 2 will meet up and crash the DFW snow party. At least we had the surprise snow before Xmas.

I can see some dryer air trying to move in but the rain shield is more over us than out west and could smash the dry air before it makes it way this far N and E.

BEST CHANCES FOR
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS THE BIG COUNTRY...ROUGHLY FROM STERLING
CITY TO NORTH AND EAST OF ABILENE.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv

[jeff]

Based on the current reports and the AM Fort Worth sounding the snow may remain a mix.

It is interesting to note however the rapid changeover around Rocksprings withint he last hour that dropped an inch. This happened within a band of deeper convection. Convective tendecies continue to increase over central TX, so there may be enough cooling for the changeover.

The event overall is not looking as good as yesterday or this morning given the sounding data. However it may still happen, it could be a very fine line through N TX where snow falls and where rain falls.

[gboudx]

Interesting loop. What about that low spinning in SoCal?

[CaptinCrunch]

Interesting loop. What about that low spinning in SoCal?

Next system due in here by Sunday.

[jeff]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for the western 1/2 of central TX just west of Austin.

Rain changing over to snow and sleet within the heavy rain area where cooling has taken place. Getting reports of 1.0 inches on the ground near Junction and Rocksprings.

Rain / snow line may get very close to metro Austin tonight, with a dusting to an inch west of I-35

[gboudx]

Maybe next time.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO POPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
220 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...
18Z SOUNDING INDICATED THE MID LEVEL WARM DRY NOSE HAD DECREASED IN
SIZE...BUT IS NOW NEARLY TOTALLY SATURATED. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SNOW ADVISORY...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO THICKNESS COOLING TAKING
PLACE...I AM LIMITING MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO NEAR ONE INCH NORTHWEST OF
A COMANCHE...DECATUR...BOWIE LINE. IT PROBABLY WILL BE TOWARD
MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE DFW AREA CHANGES OVER TO SNOW...DUE TO THE LACK
OF THICKNESS COOLING. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL BE ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH...WITH ONLY FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

[Johnny]

I just saw a report that Rocksprings has up to 3 inches of snow on the ground. I used to hunt out that way. It sure is pretty country and probably even prettier with a blanket of snow over it. Was Rocksprings even forecasted to get any snow?

[jeff]

Fort Worth obs indicate rain changing to sleet and snow as of 500pm

[CaptinCrunch]

Rain nevered changed to snow, however there was sleet mixed with the rain, and around 9pm I received a band of heavy sleet that lasted only 5 or 10 min. That was about it.

[chris07dabomb]

Hey Captin, do you think there is a chance for any frozen precip next week, or in the near future? Do you think we will get alot of winter events here in Denison,TX this February?