Panhandle Hook Storm next week?

[Planetsnow]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK - by Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove

If there is going to be a major snow/ice threat over the Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England (using the 0z Feb 1 runs of the GGEM and ECMWF versions), the period from 0z Fri Feb 4 to 12z Sat Feb 5 is the most likely strike time. The slow motion of the upper system (not to mention its geographic scope) will create problems for the numerical models, especially with regard to placement of the precipitation and wind fields. Some manner of an IcA surface high appears over QC and LBR through the next 108 hours, so I am leaning toward a mainly frozen type (if not mostly snow) episode along the Interstate 95 corridor (Richmond VA to Boston MA) for the start of the weekend.

Next up is the major shift in the 500MB longwave pattern which should allow much colder values to dominate the West Coast and Intermountain Region by Sunday night. This appears to be an active period, and I believe that the 0z Feb 1 GFS has a good handle on the threat for a strong "Panhandle Hook" cyclone to occur during the 144-180 time frame across the Great Plains and Midwest (Chicago IL metro still has a shot at a mostly snow event). While mild air will flood much of Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard following the departure of the possible coastal+oceanic hybrid storm, rising 500MB heights over the northern Atlantic Ocean by February 11 favor shifting of the cA regime into the eastern two-thirds of the nation by that date.

[sertorius]

Early next week does indeed look interesting for the central plains. The GFS and Euro both show a low tracking across Oklahoma-Kansas and into Arkansas. The GFS is now stronger with the cold where as the 12Z Euro has backed off-who knows-but IMHO, this one of the last shots Kansas City/Lawrence has for a good snow storm!!