Tropical Cyclone Meena (07F / 15P)

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 02/0050 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [1002HPA] LOCATED NEAR 16S 166W SLOW MOVING.
POSITION POOR AND BASED ON GOES9/VIS WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANISED AT THIS STAGE WITH MAJOR CONVECTION
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE APPARENT LLCC. 07F IS LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
CIMMS CURRENTLY INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS MODERATE AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO. GOOD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF 07F. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ZONES TO THE
WEST AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO SPIN MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO 07F
AND SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
COGNIZANT OF THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM, WHILE GRADUALLY DEEPENING IT.

POTENTIAL FOR 07F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOW IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT MODERATE THEREAFTER.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

The South Pacific continues to be on a roll!

If it gets named, it will be "Meena"

[senorpepr]

Who wants to take bets on whether 07F will be upgraded by the JTWC?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not take that beat because they are like the nhc they don't upgrade!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 02/2353 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F CENTRE [998hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15S 168W AT
022100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND 022001Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 12S
169W 14S 165W 16S 167W 14.5S 168W 14S 169W 12S 169W.

SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL CDO. RECENT HIRES QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATE POSSIBLE GALES IN NORTHWEST SECTOR. SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS
EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MET=2.0. PT=2.5 BUT FT IS CONSTRAINED BY
INITIAL ANALYSIS TIME OF 020000 UTC TO T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 15.0S 166.3W MOV ENE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 14.9S 165.5W MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 15.4S 164.2W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 16.7S 163.0W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 030230
UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0211 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 167.4W
AT 030000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 12S 169W 14S 165W 16S 165W 16S 167W 14S 167W 14S 169W 12S
169W.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT ORGANISATION WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF A SMALL CDO. RECENT HIRES QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE
POSSIBLE GALES IN NORTHWEST SECTOR. SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL
WIND FLOW. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENT
SHEAR HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON MET=2.5 AND PT=2.5 TO GET T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY
AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 14.7S 166.1W MOV ENE AT 03 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 15.1S 164.8W MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 15.7S 163.6W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 17.7S 162.4W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 030830
UTC.

[senorpepr]

Storm Warning 011 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 03/1249 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone MEENA centre [985 hPa] was located near 14 decimal 2
South 167 decimal 5 West at 031200 UTC.

Position Poor.

Repeat position 14.2S 167.5W at 031200 UTC.

Cyclone moving towards the east at about 5 knots.

Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre increasing to
60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 miles of centre in the sector
from northwest through east to southeast.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 nautical miles of centre.

Forecast position near 14.5S 167.2W at 040000 UTC.
and near 15.0S 166.5W at 041200 UTC.

Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every
three hours to RSMC Nadi. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 010.

[P.K.]

This has only just appeared on the NRL page (Although it is now listed as 15S.Evan).

Edit - Ignore that the NRL page is different to the JTWC.

[Aslkahuna]

JTWC has an advisory out on TC15P (Meena) at 2100Z. Whoever said that they wouldn't upgrade lost their bet as both systems have JT advisories out on them. The issue with the previous two disturbances were two fold. First JT does not issue advisories on Southern Hemisphere storms unless a designated RSMC issues a warning on them as Cyclones and not disturbances and secondly both of them became extratropical very quickly after developing circulations. Yes NRL is a tad different from JT especially in location as NRL is in Monterey CA and JT at Pearl Harbor HI.

Steve

[senorpepr]

This has only just appeared on the NRL page (Although it is now listed as 15S.Evan).

Edit - Ignore that the NRL page is different to the JTWC.

They just corrected the NRL page to say 15P.Meena

[senorpepr]

JTWC has an advisory out on TC15P (Meena) at 2100Z. Whoever said that they wouldn't upgrade lost their bet as both systems have JT advisories out on them. The issue with the previous two disturbances were two fold. First JT does not issue advisories on Southern Hemisphere storms unless a designated RSMC issues a warning on them as Cyclones and not disturbances and secondly both of them became extratropical very quickly after developing circulations. Yes NRL is a tad different from JT especially in location as NRL is in Monterey CA and JT at Pearl Harbor HI.

Steve

Steve,
Meteo France had Felapi as a tropical storm for a while, but JTWC never upgraded. Also, Fiji had Lola as a tropical cyclone -- JTWC never upgraded.

[P.K.]

This has only just appeared on the NRL page (Although it is now listed as 15S.Evan).

Edit - Ignore that the NRL page is different to the JTWC.

They just corrected the NRL page to say 15P.Meena

It said that but it had the final forecast image for Evan there from yesterday. (I didn't notice the date though )

[Aslkahuna]

I looked at both on Satellite and the former peaked just before landfalling and the second just before going ET so perhaps JT didn't feel that it was warranted to issue an advisory in those cases. At any Rate, since we are not privy to their decision making process we will never know why they didn't issue any advisories. I do agree that Felapi was indeed a TC prior to landfall and also note that JT was late on Ernest.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

NRL now indicates that MEENA has winds around 55 knots, it seems like MEENA IS GETTING MEAN!

[senorpepr]

NRL now indicates that MEENA has winds around 55 knots, it seems like MEENA IS GETTING MEAN!

Fiji, the official authority, has Meena at 62.7 knots or 72 miles per hour. (Using 1-minute average like NRL) She's almost a severe tropical cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/1404 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [970hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 165.9W
AT 041200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.

MEENA HAS UNDERGONE INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND HAS BECOME GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN A WHITE
SHADE YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=PT=4.5: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. EXPECT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AS MEENA ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 15.1S 164.6W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 16.4S 163.3W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 17.8S 162.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 19.9S 160.7W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042030 UTC.


MEENA NOW A HURRICANE UNDER ATLANTIC STANDARDS. NRL AGREES.

[Aslkahuna]

JT at 70kt also going for 105kt in 48 hours.

Steve

[P.K.]

04/2025 UTC 14.2S 165.2W T4.0/4.0 MEENA -- South Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Meena is now a 90 knots tropical cyclone.

MEENA IS GETTING REALLY, REALLY MEAN RIGHT NOW!

[James]

Agreed, Meena is looking very well organised.