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Winter Weather Discussion

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TT-SEA

#1181 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Feb 01, 2005 7:00 pm

R-Dub...

I agree that anything can happen. Always stay alert.

I lived in Southern California for 10 years. Seattle looks nothing like Southern California. But I definitely do not want hot, dry summers here.

This is February though.

A warm, dry winter does NOT mean a hot, dry summer. In fact the opposite is usually true. Also... the mountains could get blasted in March and April and get back to reality. Thats better than melting the snow in March and April.

Last summer was dry in July and early August but we had almost 7 inches of rain at our house during the last week of August.
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#1182 Postby R-Dub » Tue Feb 01, 2005 7:12 pm

Yeah if we get a dry hot summer after a dry winter, I will be convinced that there has been a climate change. Because like you say TT, dry warm winters lead to (well used to anyway) cool wet summers. I could use a cool wet summer this yr! Trying to manage the grass on the golf course the last two summers with the heat and dry really taxed me!! I was so happy when the dry ended abruptly towards the end of AUG. Last yr.

Right now it is unblievable though! If anyone is a golfer on here in the PAC Northest, but don't like the soggy turf, (and sky) conditions that the first of Feb usually offers, GET OUT THERE NOW!!! My course is in May/June condition right now!!! Almost not a wet spot to be found, ground is very firm, grass is lush green and growing at a month of May rate(GRRRRRR :grr: ), and greens are fast!!!!

2/1/05 LK Goodwin WA
4:10:48 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 53.4
Humidity (%) 49.4
Wind (mph) SE 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.39
Dew Point: 35.3 ºF
High today was 55.2 degrees
Low today was 39.7 degrees
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#1183 Postby andycottle » Tue Feb 01, 2005 9:13 pm

Looking at the latest 18z GFS....the trend is still for some what cooler showery air this weekend as H500 will be around 534DM and 850MB temps of -3C. 12hr & 24hr precip totals for Saturday are anywhere from .50 to .75", with lighter amounts on Sunday. So look for snow levels of around 4,000ft in the Cascades, and pretty much a rainy Saturday here in the lowlands, with only scattered showers on Sunday. MOS for Seattle for the weekend has high temps in the low-mid 40`s. -- Andy
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#1184 Postby R-Dub » Tue Feb 01, 2005 9:48 pm

Pretty quiet around here tonight. Weatherwise, and forum wise!

Anthony, I got your money, thanks 8-)

Everyone must be out BBQing or something :lol: , still 52 degrees and partly cloudy here in Stanwood.
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#1185 Postby andycottle » Tue Feb 01, 2005 9:53 pm

Hey MMMMM....sounds good :sun:

Our skies are partly cloudy here at 7pm with a temp of 48. -- Andy
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#1186 Postby andycottle » Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:17 pm

Good evening folks. Todays weather for the most part was on the mostly sunny side, though late this afternoon and early this evening we did have a couple somewhat overcast periods which were mainly mid level clouds....alto stratus and some alto cumulus. Our high today was 55 with a low of 39.

Took a walk down too the bike trail earlier this evening here in Woodinville to get some shots of Mt.Rainier....and here is what I saw that looked really neat to me. -- Andy http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004/album?.dir=/1e33
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#1187 Postby R-Dub » Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:21 pm

Great pics Andy!! Really felt like a May or June kind of a day, and this evening is no different.
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#1188 Postby R-Dub » Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:36 pm

18z GFS shows -12MB 850 Temps day 5! That is cold stuff, at least cold enough to support snow in the lowlands.
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#1189 Postby andycottle » Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:44 pm

Hey thanks Randy! Glad you enjoyed them! -- Andy
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#1190 Postby andycottle » Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:49 pm

On the 18z GFS your looking at, Randy,....doesn`t look like there`s any precip for that day. Correct? -- Andy
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#1191 Postby R-Dub » Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:50 pm

Looks very light stuff now, but hopefully that will change 8-)
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#1192 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:03 pm

Remember the GFS always pushes cold air too far south and west through Western Washington for events in the 3-10 day period because it does not recognize the Cascade Mountains. Big problem.

The GFS will slowly moderate as we approach the weekend because it will start to get real data.

You need to be closer to the event (2-3 days out) to tell if there is any chance... thats when the ETA gets into play with its superior terrain resolution.

Currently the long range of the 00Z ETA has 850 mb temperatures of around -3C over the weekend. But the winds are westerly at 850mb which is off the ocean and hence no outflow or lowland snow.

Awesome for the mountains though!!
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#1193 Postby R-Dub » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:09 pm

Does the ETA do the same thing with temps moderating 2 or so days out on a regular basis as well? I have not studied it well enough to know.
Does the ETA reconize the mountains?
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TT-SEA

#1194 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:22 pm

The ETA is better. It does recognize the mountains to some degree.

But the good folks at UW decided not well enough so they created the MM5 model based on the upper patterns of the GFS and ETA. Basically it derives surface conditions from the GFS and ETA models for just the Northwest. It is recognizes all of the the terrain in Western Washington and is the best model (by far) for our area. Unfortunately it only goes out to 72 hours.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/etainit.html
Last edited by TT-SEA on Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1195 Postby andycottle » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:24 pm

Tim...am thinking that ETA your looking is from the NECP. ETA only out 84hrs. -- Andy
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TT-SEA

#1196 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:35 pm

I know.

The GFS goes out 384 hours
The ETA (now called NAM) goes out 84 hours
The GFS-based MM5 from UW goes out 72 hours.
The ETA(NAM)-based MM5 from UW goes out 72 hours.

Within 72 hours... the MM5 should be the only model you look at for Western Washington. It incorporates the global patterns from the GFS and ETA (NAM) but within terrain specific surface conditions for our unique geography.
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#1197 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:42 pm

Dude, long day at school!!! First time I've been online all day.

Not much activity today, and most models continue the trend of cooler over the weekend, and then another ridge building by the middle of next week. I hate to say it, but no arctic outbreak coming this weekend...but possibly some much-needed snow in the mountains.

At any rate, to answer some model questions, the GFS is a poor forecasting model for the Pacific Northwest because it doesn't take into account the terrain or influence of the Pacific Ocean. It does well for the middle of the country because it's flat with no ocean influence, but over here the model's basically useless after 72 hours. The GFS does not recognize the Olympics and the mountains in Southern British Columbia. And it looks at the Cascades as hills with elevations no higher than 500 feet. It also does not understand the influence of the warm, Pacific Ocean...esp. during our winter months. The ETA is a little better, but still not a good forecasting model. It does recognize the Cascades but doesn't know the mountains in southern British Columbia. It also shows a few hills over on the Olympic Peninsula, but nothing more. So when most models advertise a major arctic outbreak in the extended, 95 percent of the time it's inaccurate. The MM5 models are a step in the right direction, but they aren't the best either. The MM5 ETA is the best...it recognizes the Cascades, Olympics and to some degree the mild Pacific Ocean. If you want the most accurate forecast for surface temperatures, look at that model.

R-Dub...850 mb heights are a little misleading when it comes to arctic air. -12C heights are NOT arctic air...or even conduscive for lowland snow. While -12C would be below freezing for a flat, non-terrain region, the ocean and mountains really make that temperature misleading. So figure about a 40 F surface temperature with 850 mb heights at that level.

I'll have more later...I have a AP government test to study for and then House MD to watch at 9pm. Cya.

Anthony
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TT-SEA

#1198 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:46 pm

The 00Z run of the GFS is a little drier but still cold (850mb at -10C) over the weekend. The flow just does not look right for lowland snow. However... snow levels will be low.

Whatever happens will be short-lived because for about the 10th run in a row it shows ridging later next week.

Here is Thursday (2/10)...

Image

With 850 mb temps approaching +3C... expect 50's once again!!
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#1199 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:55 pm

But with each model run, that ridge of high pressure is a little further west. Just yesterday, the ridge was centered over Eastern Washington/Northern Idaho...tonight it's off the Washington/Oregon coast. If it continues to retrograde, a northwest flow aloft would develop and bring a substantial amount of snow to the mountains.
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#1200 Postby andycottle » Tue Feb 01, 2005 11:56 pm

Anthony....I do agree with you about the MM5 being better model, cause I have looked at that lots of times and really does give a better idea of what to expect at the surface and upper layers. -- Andy
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