Quite east, above average temperatures. Won't last forever!

[krysof]

Hello, it's February, the most active month of winter with March coming close. I never look to much for snow in January because very cold air usually destroys storms. First 10 days or up to the 12th I expect mild conditions and very quiet-meaning dry. My area should see low to mid 40's through the 11th, but slowly trends downward on the 11th with 40 degrees for a high. The OFM did say that winter would not be too severe from mid November through mid February, but then explode 2nd half of February and a large part of March. This winter, March could begin as a montrous lion.

[Tip]

While the first 10 days of February will be warmer in the east, it will not approach the blowtorch above normal temps of the first half of January. The reason for this is the split flow out west and no big SE ridge. During the first half of January, California got clobbered with storms from a roaring Pac Jet and a major SE ridge in the east. The synoptic pattern doest not resemble early January pattern. Latest EURO model shows the split flow out west and no big SE ridge.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5020212!!/

[yoda]

While the first 10 days of February will be warmer in the east, it will not approach the blowtorch above normal temps of the first half of January. The reason for this is the split flow out west and no big SE ridge. During the first half of January, California got clobbered with storms from a roaring Pac Jet and a major SE ridge in the east. The synoptic pattern doest not resemble early January pattern. Latest EURO model shows the split flow out west and no big SE ridge.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5020212!!/

Agree and good post. Darn Pacific Jet will cause a bunch of problems... but with the MJO and the SBJ possibly hooking up after Feb 10.. WATCH OUT!!