Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

In general... we need to give up this constant talk of lowland snow.

It is not going to happen this weekend... and then its back to a classic El Nino pattern.

I would say there is a 90% chance of NO more lowland snow this winter. I am holding out a 10% chance in late February or this first week of March.

Spring is here guys. Look at that picture of R-Dub's golf course!! Look at the models after this weekend. Despite Snow-Wizzard's clever saying... spring DOES mean a thing this year.

The system coming in this weekend is pretty standard for February. Lowland rain... convergence zone... snow in the mountains. Do not waste your time looking for signs of a widespread lowland snow event... it is not going to happen.

Remember... I recognized the pattern that bought snow three weeks ago. This is not a snow pattern.

[AnthonyC]

Like TT-SEA stated, this weekend does not look conduscive for lowland snow...but at least it's a step in the right direction for more winter-like weather. The mountains desperately need snow...I don't care if it's 1 inch or 10 feet...anything helps at this point. I do disagree about your prediction of lowland snow for the rest of the season...I would say we have a 30 percent chance that some lowland region will see another bout of snow this winter...best chance will either be in a PSCZ or Bellingham. Considering it's only February 2nd, I think a 90 percent chance of NO lowland snow is ludicrous.

On a side note, there's an interesting weather article on komotv.com...but you have to search under past news stories...type in "weather" on the search tool and then look through all the articles pertaining to weather. Back in...if I'm correct...spring of 2001 this one local meteorologist predicted that the winters in the Pacific Northwest would be drier/warmer for the next few years because of a general cycle we're going through. I strongly encourage everyone on this site to read it...esp. TT-SEA and R-Dub and Snow_Wizzard. I think TT-SEA will thoroughly enjoy it. lol.

Goodnite to all!!

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Why on Earth should we give up on snow when every model shows 850mb temps of -8C with moisture in just a few short days.

Maybe you're right...Maybe it will be 60 and just absolutlely boring for the next 50 years. That would be oh so nice wouldn't it? Some of us are tyring to hold out some hope here. And the models DO show a chance!!!!!!! I just can't take this negativity any more.

[andycottle]

Good evening folks. Looking tonights 00z GFS, along with Candain GEM and ECMWF...they show 500MB over the weekend of between 528 to 534DM. Also, Saturday appearing to be pretty showery, and Sunday just seeing some scattered showers. Seattle MOS showing highs this weekend in the lower 40`s with lows in the mid 30`s to near 40. Then come Monday the 7th - Wednesday the 16th...we have a nice big ridge of high pressure with 500MB voricitys of 558 to 564DM with 850MB temps of -6 to -9C early in the period and warming up to about a +3 to near +6C later in the period...by or near the 16th of Feb. So during that time, it looks like we can expect high once again in the mid 50`s to possibly even lower 60`s.

Hmmmm....if there`s any gardeners on this thread, hope you don`t get the erge to plant thoes frost sensetive plants just yet. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

You guys are missing the cold spell early next week. It is so obvious that we are going to have a hard freeze. These temps are similar to the Jan cold spell. The Candian forecast for Abbotsford is for lows in the teens by early next week. How are you guys missing this?

I guess we will see who's right. In my view there is no doubt we are going below normal.

[andycottle]

GRRR.......... I had a feeling that would happen. I have no luck posting pics

Randy....when puting pics in your yahoo folder and after uploading them, there is the option to make them for 'public viewing'.Here is what I am talking about. http://up.photos.yahoo.com/ed/ajc192004 ... 502&src=ph . You can edit your settings there. Hope that helps. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard...

There is ONSHORE flow this weekend. It ain't gonna snow in the lowlands. You would need -15C for snow with an onshore flow.

You cannot deny the return to warm and dry after that either. I have not seen a run of the GFS in the last week that did not show a return to high pressure after February 8th. Its coming.

Also... this is not being "negative"... its reality.

Personally I would not trade today for anything. It was stunning. But thats just me. And I think that sounds positive!!

I love a healthy debate... but its so one-sided sometimes. The snow drum starts beating and you better go along with it. If a real snowy pattern was coming I would jump on board. But you just ignore all evidence against it.

I really think Anthony, R-Dub, Andy, and Andrew are beginning to accept reality. They are even starting to appreciate the beautiful weather we have been having.

I respect your love of snow. You need to drive up to Stevens Pass this weekend... there will be a good dump of it there. Maybe that will satisify you for now. But Covington will continue to green up and will be close to 60 degrees again by Thursday and Friday of next week.

Its coming. You can't ignore it.

Check back in 8 days. The weather will be the same as it is now.

[TT-SEA]

One note... we could DEFINITELY slip below freezing on Sunday or Monday night with clear skies. Maybe into the upper 20's. But highs will still be in the 40's

That is not arctic and there will be no lowland snow.

So maybe a cold night would make you feel better. It will not stop spring or the grass from growing but it will feel normal at least.

[snow_wizzard]

I am focusing on the cold snap now. You are dead wrong about needing -15C for snow in an onshore flow. I have seen it at -6, under the proper conditions...always at -8. That is what I mean...you are being beyond realistic (negative). Have you noticed how the GFS is backing off on ridge for the middle of next week. It keeps putting it off.

I know what I'm talking about. You greatly underestimate my knowledge.

WE ARE GOING BELOW NORMAL.

[TT-SEA]

Well then we should be hearing some rumors of lowland snow in the discussions. But the conditions are wrong.

No... the GFS is not backing away from the ridge. Not at all. I have been showing you maps from next Thursday for the last 4 days. Always the same period. Always ridging. Every single run.

Here is the 00Z run of the GFS for next Thursday... that would bring a REPEAT of today. There is no backing off... no retrograding. Nothing.

[TT-SEA]

Please tell me how you look at that map (above) for next Thursday and tell me its backing away from ridging. Or that there is any chance for cold air in this scenario???

[TT-SEA]

To clarify... I mean no chance for cold air in the scenario after Monday of next week. I say again... it will be colder this weekend. But not "cold"... just normal.

[TT-SEA]

And look at the ECMWF...

That is VERY good agreement on ridging for next week.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005020300!!/

[snow_wizzard]

I am CERTAIN we will be below normal. This one is going to be the moment of truth. By the way...the setup on the map you just posted was shown happening earlier on previous runs. It keeps putting it off. Did you notice this run keeps the ridge offhsore longer? You are staking an awful lot on the GFS being correct. There have been ECMWF and Candian runs going for a more zonal flow late next week. I certainly will not make a firm predction that it won't get warm late next week, but it's possible. The cold spell this weekend and early next week is VERY likely to happen. Temps a solid 5 degrees below normal, probably more. Some highs in the 30s are also very possible.

[andycottle]

Hey Randy....nice green golf course there! Very nice!! -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

TT...Another thing. The experts said this does not meet the requirements for an El Nino pattern. I consulted a guy that works at NOAA in Seattle and he said, they are right. This does not meet the requirmenets! These are EXPERTS!!!!!

This is the ECMWF from day 5, and it clearly shows Fraser River outflow...N to S pressure gradient (an 8mb gradient between Vancouver BC and Tacoma)....not exactly an onshore flow.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_120.gif

[snow_wizzard]

I just looked at the latest sea surface temps, and Nino regions 1+2, and 3 have actually dropped below normal. I guess your beloved El Nino is dying. Another thing to consider. The outgoing longwave radiation, in the tropics between 160W and 160E, has consistently been above normal this winter, which is strongly contradictory to the normal well below normal OLR values seen during every El Nino since such records began. Above normal OLR means that an above normal amount of heat is escaping into space from the above mentioned area. The below normal OLR during most El Nino winters results in excess heat building up in the atmosphere. That is not happening this winter. See...I do know a thing or two...or 10!

[TT-SEA]

Are we talking about the same thing??

My prediction for Monday (2/7) at Sea-Tac... high of 43 degrees and a low of 30 degrees. That is probably 5 degrees below normal. No snow. No big deal.

I thought you were saying we were going to get a widespread lowland snow event this weekend. If not... and you just say a little cooler than normal... we are in agreement.

But why is that exciting in any way??

I cannot stress this enough. The GFS has shown ridging for Thursday (2/10) since it came into view last week. It has been rock solid. The ECMWF is in total agreement. There has been backing off by the GFS. I purposely marked that day so I could spot a trend.

I understand that the El Nino signal is weak. But the pattern is classic El Nino. A blocking ridge with splitting systems. It will continue through February.

Here is the shocker... I predict that March and April will be colder and wetter than normal and the mountains will get slammed. I am NOT talking about 20 degrees and 10 inches of snow in Seattle. But wetter and colder than normal.

[cloud9]

Hi snow_wizzard, I was wondering if you had a chance to look at that website and listen to that talk show I put on the board this morning?

[cloud9]

I'm putting my money on snow_wizzard, he was right the last time and theres nothing wrong with keeping a positive attitude