Just read an article from WFAA's website on the explaination of the No Snow event that was to have happened on Tuesday and Wednesday. I guess they had a lot of mad snow lovers calling into the station. There was a long explaination on how you can't predict snow in Texas. One guy said well we could have had 5 inches but nothing. We just want to prepare everyone just in case we had received that much snow....blah,blah,blah...Face it they got egg on their face. This is probably why they are very cautious about any upcoming winter precp.
Don't Tease Us Texans!!!
Texas Weather Explained
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Texas Weather Explained
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CaptinCrunch
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I'm sure they did receive allot of calls on the "NO SNOW" event. I had to explain it to my kids, my neighbors (who or weather buffs) and some of the people I work with.
It's a fact that we here in NTX have no more than a 50% chance to see any type of winter precip each winter. Things have to come together just perfect for snow or even sleet/ice to fall over the D/FW area. You need a really thick cold air mass to move in, you need a active SJS (to pump in the moisture) or a really strong upper level low presure system, it must track just about right over us with out falling apart before getting to us, ground temps would need to be pretty cold (several nights below freezing would help) and we would need high temps to range between 33 and 27 degrees for more than 1 or 2 days for any thing that falls to be enjoyed by the winter precip lovers.
Now I know that winter for NTX is coming to a close fast, but we still have a few more chances for things to happen. Models still look to bring about another good cold spell by mid month if not earlier and the SJS looks to be locked in for the rest of Feb across TX.
It's a fact that we here in NTX have no more than a 50% chance to see any type of winter precip each winter. Things have to come together just perfect for snow or even sleet/ice to fall over the D/FW area. You need a really thick cold air mass to move in, you need a active SJS (to pump in the moisture) or a really strong upper level low presure system, it must track just about right over us with out falling apart before getting to us, ground temps would need to be pretty cold (several nights below freezing would help) and we would need high temps to range between 33 and 27 degrees for more than 1 or 2 days for any thing that falls to be enjoyed by the winter precip lovers.
Now I know that winter for NTX is coming to a close fast, but we still have a few more chances for things to happen. Models still look to bring about another good cold spell by mid month if not earlier and the SJS looks to be locked in for the rest of Feb across TX.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The main problem with this last event was the track of the upper level low. It did snow a good bit (4-7 inches) over W TX from Midland to Lubbock into SW OK. Had the low tracked more ENE N TX would have gotten snow. However, with the track N TX remained on the warm side and the cold pool pressed just W and then N of your region.
This is the exact reason why you should not try to get to specific with accumulation amounts anywhere. Those on the E coast that deal with nor'easters can write a book on the tracks of storms and their impacts. A lot of things can affect the rain / snow line and can easily bust a forecast even within 12 hours of the event.
Winter weather is probably one of the hardest forecast to make, and it takes a lot of knowledge and experience. From a forecasting stand point I would take severe weather and tropical cyclones any day over a winter storm event.
This is the exact reason why you should not try to get to specific with accumulation amounts anywhere. Those on the E coast that deal with nor'easters can write a book on the tracks of storms and their impacts. A lot of things can affect the rain / snow line and can easily bust a forecast even within 12 hours of the event.
Winter weather is probably one of the hardest forecast to make, and it takes a lot of knowledge and experience. From a forecasting stand point I would take severe weather and tropical cyclones any day over a winter storm event.
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Yes I agree with you Jeff, severe weather and summer weather are easier to predict here in Texas.
I usually say that if they predict snow we won't get it and if they don't then we will get it. Sort of Murphy's law in a weird way.
However it was weird like that last VAlentines' day when we did get a 3 inch snow...I went outside and it was about 36-38 yet we had some snow on the ground. I wasn't even wearing a coat when I took pics of my house in the snow ( another weird thing we southerners do after it snows-sort of like we need proof that it does snow). HOwever the snow melted quickly and it warmed up to the upper 40's.
My grandpa said that is Texas it can be 70's one hour and a blue northern roll in and temps drop in minutes. So the mets around here have a better chance of picking winning lotto numbers than predicting if it will snow and how much we will get if any.
Capt. are you saying that if we get locked in FEb. are you talking cold and staying that way for the rest of the month or will be be on another Jan. rollercoaster ride? Im not to wise in the models but have learned much from this group. At least I know a -neg PNsomething or other means it gets cold here...LOL
I usually say that if they predict snow we won't get it and if they don't then we will get it. Sort of Murphy's law in a weird way.
However it was weird like that last VAlentines' day when we did get a 3 inch snow...I went outside and it was about 36-38 yet we had some snow on the ground. I wasn't even wearing a coat when I took pics of my house in the snow ( another weird thing we southerners do after it snows-sort of like we need proof that it does snow). HOwever the snow melted quickly and it warmed up to the upper 40's.
My grandpa said that is Texas it can be 70's one hour and a blue northern roll in and temps drop in minutes. So the mets around here have a better chance of picking winning lotto numbers than predicting if it will snow and how much we will get if any.
Capt. are you saying that if we get locked in FEb. are you talking cold and staying that way for the rest of the month or will be be on another Jan. rollercoaster ride? Im not to wise in the models but have learned much from this group. At least I know a -neg PNsomething or other means it gets cold here...LOL
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Jeff:
Excellent points. I am basically just a Latin teacher who loves snow storms. Living in and around Kansas City my whole life, I have seen countless good looking winter storms forecasted 3 hours before turn to ice, sleet, and rain. Texas all the way to southern Nebraska always is so dependent on the storm track that it is impossible to make a forecast 3 days in advance. A great example is the storm progged for Monday/Tuesday next week-first looked to be a good snow-then looked to be all rain base don the EURO-now the 0z GFS and MRF and UKMET are tracking it further south. The EURO is prob. correct, but to be a forecaster having to put a product or a warning-man what a tough situation. I really feel for the NWS and OCM here-the past 10 years has been really tough for them as several 8-10 inch storms turned to rain or a little sleet. One day, they are going to call for one, nobody is going to listen and we are going to have quite the mess here. I babbled too long here, but this topic amazes me-a winter storm for here: it is incredible what has to come together to get one!!!
Excellent points. I am basically just a Latin teacher who loves snow storms. Living in and around Kansas City my whole life, I have seen countless good looking winter storms forecasted 3 hours before turn to ice, sleet, and rain. Texas all the way to southern Nebraska always is so dependent on the storm track that it is impossible to make a forecast 3 days in advance. A great example is the storm progged for Monday/Tuesday next week-first looked to be a good snow-then looked to be all rain base don the EURO-now the 0z GFS and MRF and UKMET are tracking it further south. The EURO is prob. correct, but to be a forecaster having to put a product or a warning-man what a tough situation. I really feel for the NWS and OCM here-the past 10 years has been really tough for them as several 8-10 inch storms turned to rain or a little sleet. One day, they are going to call for one, nobody is going to listen and we are going to have quite the mess here. I babbled too long here, but this topic amazes me-a winter storm for here: it is incredible what has to come together to get one!!!
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CaptinCrunch
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Capt. are you saying that if we get locked in FEb. are you talking cold and staying that way for the rest of the month or will be be on another Jan. rollercoaster ride? Im not to wise in the models but have learned much from this group. At least I know a -neg PNsomething or other means it gets cold here...LOL
GFS mid range models still have a cold front coming into TX around the 11th with a upper low tracking across TX the 12th & 13th. Now the models are not showing the front to be as cold as it did yesterday and have slowed down the cold front by about 36 hrs, but these things can change again by this afternoon's run, and so on.
I was just saying that we NTX and ETX still have a few more chances for a winter precip event before the months out. Let's hope so at least.
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