The 12Z Euro looks pretty interesting for the central plains-the low is comming in a great track based on this run and is now comming in much quicker-interesting that the 0Z GFS and the 12Z Euro depict a similar track-could we be seeing something???
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005020112!!/
Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
A couple of quick notes before I have to start teaching 17 year olds a 3,000 year old dead language
Today-Sunday: The warm up-beginning today, our temps. will steradily rise till Sunday with a max out of between 55-60 on Saturday. Nuce stretch of weather heading our way if you don't like winter weather!!!
Sunday-Wednesday: Both the 0z Euor and 0z GFS are in pretty good agreement on the track of the low for next monday/Tuesday. Both bring the low out of southern Colorado thru Kansas into south central Missouri. The 0Z GFS had this area in a true bonified snow storm Monday/Tuesday with almost one inch of precipitation. I just had to save it!! The EURO brings the low about 50 miles furhter North and both have the low about the same in intensity. 2 points on this:
A. The GFS had this smae scenario last Thursday for this past Monday-obviously that worked out well (Not!!!) The GFS has a pretty good size high comming down and the 0z just poused the low a bit south-I would not be surprised to see this low get pushed further and further south with each run-it really depends how strong the cold air push is and where it sets up-if the fronts sets up in Oklahoma, this area should be ok-if dives all the way into southern Texas, we could be looking at the same track we had with the past two storms-far south
B. The EURO track is far enough North, that I could be looking at some ice and then back side snow. The 850 temps. are about -6 for Sunday night into Monday so it may be close
I have not looked at the 06Z GFS as I am sure it has changed-the 18Z GFS was totally opposite of the 0z, 06z, and 12z and then today's 0z runs but I just don't trust the 06 and 18 runs. I will prob. follow thew euro but will leave the GFS alone untill Saturday. If this scenario as depicted by today's 0z runs does not pan out, I really think my area is in trouble for seeing a significant weather event this winter (however, the euro today does have another surface low in Colorado following the Monday system)
Which leads me to beyond next Wed.
Next week will be much cooler than this week with our temps. averaging normal to just below normal for the week. However, on the 10 day EURO, you can already see the trough begin to move East and this is very consistent with the pattern this year. If it stays in the east for 2-3 weeks as many think it will, we are def. in trouble unless the STJ can throw something our way.
Therefore comma Sunday-Wednesday looks very interesting for Lawrence/Kansas City-of course it has before and turned to nothing-will this happen again? Will the sotrm fizzle or track way south?? Time will tell-but watching the GFS from run to run will make you pull your hair out-I will wait till Saturday for that and watch the EURO and the the NAM when it gets to that period. Hopefully this will work out!!
Today-Sunday: The warm up-beginning today, our temps. will steradily rise till Sunday with a max out of between 55-60 on Saturday. Nuce stretch of weather heading our way if you don't like winter weather!!!
Sunday-Wednesday: Both the 0z Euor and 0z GFS are in pretty good agreement on the track of the low for next monday/Tuesday. Both bring the low out of southern Colorado thru Kansas into south central Missouri. The 0Z GFS had this area in a true bonified snow storm Monday/Tuesday with almost one inch of precipitation. I just had to save it!! The EURO brings the low about 50 miles furhter North and both have the low about the same in intensity. 2 points on this:
A. The GFS had this smae scenario last Thursday for this past Monday-obviously that worked out well (Not!!!) The GFS has a pretty good size high comming down and the 0z just poused the low a bit south-I would not be surprised to see this low get pushed further and further south with each run-it really depends how strong the cold air push is and where it sets up-if the fronts sets up in Oklahoma, this area should be ok-if dives all the way into southern Texas, we could be looking at the same track we had with the past two storms-far south
B. The EURO track is far enough North, that I could be looking at some ice and then back side snow. The 850 temps. are about -6 for Sunday night into Monday so it may be close
I have not looked at the 06Z GFS as I am sure it has changed-the 18Z GFS was totally opposite of the 0z, 06z, and 12z and then today's 0z runs but I just don't trust the 06 and 18 runs. I will prob. follow thew euro but will leave the GFS alone untill Saturday. If this scenario as depicted by today's 0z runs does not pan out, I really think my area is in trouble for seeing a significant weather event this winter (however, the euro today does have another surface low in Colorado following the Monday system)
Which leads me to beyond next Wed.
Next week will be much cooler than this week with our temps. averaging normal to just below normal for the week. However, on the 10 day EURO, you can already see the trough begin to move East and this is very consistent with the pattern this year. If it stays in the east for 2-3 weeks as many think it will, we are def. in trouble unless the STJ can throw something our way.
Therefore comma Sunday-Wednesday looks very interesting for Lawrence/Kansas City-of course it has before and turned to nothing-will this happen again? Will the sotrm fizzle or track way south?? Time will tell-but watching the GFS from run to run will make you pull your hair out-I will wait till Saturday for that and watch the EURO and the the NAM when it gets to that period. Hopefully this will work out!!
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BowMeHunter
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Great read again sertorious...Im still praying you get your taste of decent snows yet, god knows you deserve a doozy for all the weather watching you do..
I hope and have a gut feeling next weeks possible storm just might Track up my way in southern Wisc with 3-6"+ snows...It looks like we will be cooling down early next week with a NW flow setting in for some time..That should provide some chances of clipper snows...
I hope and have a gut feeling next weeks possible storm just might Track up my way in southern Wisc with 3-6"+ snows...It looks like we will be cooling down early next week with a NW flow setting in for some time..That should provide some chances of clipper snows...
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One more note: the NWS out of Topeka does not think we will get anything from this-their thinking as of now is no big deal. Smart move by them but I wonder: am I reading this correctly or have I just totally misrepresented the data? The EURO is somewhat weaker than yesterday, but still has the low at 1000 on the surface. Have to wait and see, but the NWS is saying no big deal.
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AS the GFS Turns!! I had to take a quick peek at the 12Z GFS on my off hour-and low and behold, the low is now tracking thru Nebraska and Iowa-this has now become a Northern Plains storm all the way-at this rate, I bet before Monday, we have the low tracking thru Texas and then once thru North Dakota-the model can not decide on how much cold air will push down here and that is going to be the key. Just interesting to watch the gFS go back and forth!! How do mets use that model and not go nuts!!!
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Good morning!! Just a couple of quick thoughts:
Currently, the 0Z today EURO has the track pretty much right over the top of me-36 hours ago it was 100 miles south of that. The 0Z Gfs has it just a tad south. Based on these model runs, this is a Northern Plains storm-Iowa and Eastern Nebraska look to benefit quite nicely. For me, it looks like a repeat of November snow-rain then back side snow-with low progged to go thru North Central Missouri and take about 8-9 hours to get to Illinois, I could see possibly 2-3 inches of back side wet snow. 2 points though: 1. The 0z Euro now closes the low off once it hits kansas. 2. On both the GFS and Euro it is delayed a day from what it was 48 hours ago. This now appears to be a Tuesday/Wednesday event. Still lots of time. I really think it all depends on the push of cold air-the models currently are off the idea of pre push of real cold air with the first system and that is allowing the storm to track North-if the push is a little stronger, the low may go a little south and then much of the Plains could get in on the fun!! By the way, the 10 day EURO really shows that ridge developing in the West. I better get something from this or it is going to be slim pickings for the reminder of the winter. One more thing: this the doughnut winter for this area: storms to the North-storms to the South-like Steelers Wheel, I'm stuck in the Middle!!!!
Currently, the 0Z today EURO has the track pretty much right over the top of me-36 hours ago it was 100 miles south of that. The 0Z Gfs has it just a tad south. Based on these model runs, this is a Northern Plains storm-Iowa and Eastern Nebraska look to benefit quite nicely. For me, it looks like a repeat of November snow-rain then back side snow-with low progged to go thru North Central Missouri and take about 8-9 hours to get to Illinois, I could see possibly 2-3 inches of back side wet snow. 2 points though: 1. The 0z Euro now closes the low off once it hits kansas. 2. On both the GFS and Euro it is delayed a day from what it was 48 hours ago. This now appears to be a Tuesday/Wednesday event. Still lots of time. I really think it all depends on the push of cold air-the models currently are off the idea of pre push of real cold air with the first system and that is allowing the storm to track North-if the push is a little stronger, the low may go a little south and then much of the Plains could get in on the fun!! By the way, the 10 day EURO really shows that ridge developing in the West. I better get something from this or it is going to be slim pickings for the reminder of the winter. One more thing: this the doughnut winter for this area: storms to the North-storms to the South-like Steelers Wheel, I'm stuck in the Middle!!!!
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Interesting that the MRF this morning has the low Monday/Tuesday tracking further south-by the MRF on today's run, I am in a heck of amount of Precip. (close to an inch) with 850 temps. falling rapidly. Also, the UKMET has this low tracking further south as well. Both the 0Z GFS and mRF had further south tracking lows. I don't nec. buy it, but I think overall, the exact track of this low comming in Monday nigh and Tuesday is still a bit up in the air. There is about a 200 miles spread on the track. If the MRF were to verify, this would be one heck of a plains snow storm from say Emporia, Kansas-Columbia Mo. Northwards. I have to right now go with the EURO and say it will track just North of me, but the MRF is def. interesting!!!
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frankthetank
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PurdueWx80
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Frank - we may get slammed by this storm here in southern WI. It certainly has the potential to be another 6-12" storm somewhere in the upper Midwest. If last night's Euro pans out, the snow would mostly miss WI and would be back in NE, SD, IA and MN and boy would it be a doozy. Most other models have a much weaker/less phased solution, which would put you and me right square in the middle of another good snowstorm. Enjoy these 40's and 50's while they're here this weekend...the rest of the month looks pretty darn cold!
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FranktheTank:
If I had as much snow and the cold you've had this year, I'd say the exact same thing!!! The 12Z GFS basically looses the whole darned thing so I'm looking at rain on sunday with flurries on Tuesday then the ridge comes back-to be honest, this is my last real good shot at a good storm with that huge ridge developing in the West. Who knows??? Not the GFS that's for sure!!!! I hope it warms up for you the next couple of days-I'm heading for 60 tomorrow and Saturday-maybe go bass fishing this weekend!!!
If I had as much snow and the cold you've had this year, I'd say the exact same thing!!! The 12Z GFS basically looses the whole darned thing so I'm looking at rain on sunday with flurries on Tuesday then the ridge comes back-to be honest, this is my last real good shot at a good storm with that huge ridge developing in the West. Who knows??? Not the GFS that's for sure!!!! I hope it warms up for you the next couple of days-I'm heading for 60 tomorrow and Saturday-maybe go bass fishing this weekend!!!
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frankthetank
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I was looking at the Euro a minute ago..Its got that low going just east of me...Should be interesting to watch what the next run does with it...
This weather has me in spring fever...sorry
although anything under 6 inches wouldn't really bother me...0-3 would be better...DRY southwest winds for the next 60days would be best
This weather has me in spring fever...sorry
although anything under 6 inches wouldn't really bother me...0-3 would be better...DRY southwest winds for the next 60days would be best
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frankthetank
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BowMeHunter
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Yesterday I felt much better about are chances for a storm affecting Southern Wisc...Looks like NW Wisc is in the Bulls eye now...I wouldn't be surprised to see some hefty snow totals up there, but nothing is set in stone yet on the track and Intensity, so all hope is not lost yet im just a lil bummed out...Ice Fishing tomorow for me...Should be nice with temps in the 40's, I hope its not real windy tho...
Where do you like to go Ice Fishing in your area Tank? I wish
Where do you like to go Ice Fishing in your area Tank? I wish
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BowMeHunter and FranktheTank:
Actually, the resiv. around here and the ponds froze hard enough to actually ice fish if you had wanted to. Used to catch some good crappie ice fishing on area resivoirs but the Bass really shut down in the winter unless you get a real sunny day-a day like today would get them heading to some shallow water-by Saturday, area farm ponds would have some pretty good fishing in them!! I love winter weather but man I love to bass fish or just fish. I go to the NWT in Canada (Great Slave Lake) every two years and fish for Lake Trout, Northern, and Greyling-up there, thew water is so cold, you can catch Lakers in 3 feet of water at ice out thru July!!!!
Weather: The 12Z EURO has taken the low south-good!!! But has it as an open wave comming thru my area-both the 12Z euro and 12Z GFS have weakened the strom Monday/Tuesday signig. Unfortunately, the one Saturday/Sunday is stronger but ofr me, it is a rain storm. Still worth watching!!
Actually, the resiv. around here and the ponds froze hard enough to actually ice fish if you had wanted to. Used to catch some good crappie ice fishing on area resivoirs but the Bass really shut down in the winter unless you get a real sunny day-a day like today would get them heading to some shallow water-by Saturday, area farm ponds would have some pretty good fishing in them!! I love winter weather but man I love to bass fish or just fish. I go to the NWT in Canada (Great Slave Lake) every two years and fish for Lake Trout, Northern, and Greyling-up there, thew water is so cold, you can catch Lakers in 3 feet of water at ice out thru July!!!!
Weather: The 12Z EURO has taken the low south-good!!! But has it as an open wave comming thru my area-both the 12Z euro and 12Z GFS have weakened the strom Monday/Tuesday signig. Unfortunately, the one Saturday/Sunday is stronger but ofr me, it is a rain storm. Still worth watching!!
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BowMeHunter
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I loveeeee fishing...We drive up to Ontario every other year and then do a FLY IN to a campsite and rough it for a week..Never see another person and no houses on the lakes...They just drop us off and check on us once during mid-week to see if we need anything...Weather can get pretty nasty at times, seems every time we do a trip There is front after front moving through..Really a great time and verrry cheap for a week..The whole trip from when we leave the Door in Milwakuee until we arrive back in the city runs us about 300 bucks total, that includes Boat and motor they provide on the lake..
Good luck on the Storm Sertorius!!!
Sounds like were going to need it for the Second storm...The one for the second half of this weekend looks to be all rain before Mixing with and ending as a lil light snow
Good luck on the Storm Sertorius!!!
Sounds like were going to need it for the Second storm...The one for the second half of this weekend looks to be all rain before Mixing with and ending as a lil light snow
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simplykristi
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I do not know why you keep saying that this is the last opportunity for snowfall this winter for Lawrence. Some of the worst snows here have been in late Feb. and March. Don't rule the snow out yet. The models are NOT perfect by any stretch of the imagination. It is too early to predict that there will be no snow after next week.
Kristi
Kristi
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Simplykristi:
Yea, I know we can recieve good snows in late Feb. and March. However, looking at climate data, those are few and far between and accept for 1913 when we had 45 inches in March and none any other month, most of those occur in a big snow winter. Look, I hope I have to eat my words-I'm just looking at the pattern for this winter-the trough is going to retrograde to the east by the end of next week and remain there for a good chunk of Feb. By the time you get to the end of Feb., we are fighting sun angle and warm temps. Yes, we can recieve snow all the way thru May, but this winter things just have not come together very well. Finally, I'm not saying we won't, I just really feel, based on this winter, the chances are going to be very reduced after next week. Again, I hope I have to eat my words. Hey, if the subtropical jet can shoot something out and we somehow have enough cold air around, we could be in business-the 240 hr. GFS does show justt such a scenario. Sorry if I sound gloom and doom, but this winter has been tough-not our winter.
Yea, I know we can recieve good snows in late Feb. and March. However, looking at climate data, those are few and far between and accept for 1913 when we had 45 inches in March and none any other month, most of those occur in a big snow winter. Look, I hope I have to eat my words-I'm just looking at the pattern for this winter-the trough is going to retrograde to the east by the end of next week and remain there for a good chunk of Feb. By the time you get to the end of Feb., we are fighting sun angle and warm temps. Yes, we can recieve snow all the way thru May, but this winter things just have not come together very well. Finally, I'm not saying we won't, I just really feel, based on this winter, the chances are going to be very reduced after next week. Again, I hope I have to eat my words. Hey, if the subtropical jet can shoot something out and we somehow have enough cold air around, we could be in business-the 240 hr. GFS does show justt such a scenario. Sorry if I sound gloom and doom, but this winter has been tough-not our winter.
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simplykristi
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